(Let’s all take a deep breath and shake-off any possibility of Earthquake Tireds and hope everything remains -whatever passes for- normal over the weekend….)
About That Trump Win…
I wasn’t ready for the Reality we’re in now. Maybe you weren’t either? What I refer to is having a President-Elect who is hawking Trump Sneakers – and on another add targeting True Believers – with an ad selling Trump Watches. It’s all a bit, well, fictionalized. In other words, Sci-Fi? Not quite but then again, maybe. I wasn’t, um, expecting it.
But it gets us to mention next week’s Wednesday Peoplenomics report I’m starting to scribble on already. It’s about how people live their lives by the wrong metrics. And there’s a HUGE lesson seen in Trump. Because while most of us live our daily existence with a focus on money, Trump’s got some other “action” going. Because when he wants (or needs) more money, he just finds the closest, convenient way to make more money and runs with it.
Elaine and I were talking about this at wine-time last night and it’s our considered opinion that people mess up their Goals with what they think are the Obstacles to it. And this is where our “downscaling” decision a quarter century ago is still paying huge dividends.
Elaine had remarked “I love it here…” In our wine-time room, another small herd of deer (4-5 of ’em, large does) were wandering through the yard. A perfect sunset and all that. Sitting out here in the woods on 30 very private acres, we can still live (comfortably) on less than $20,000 a year.
But understand, this all stems from a certain “clarity of Goal” process. We wanted the results we were after: Verdant, no stress, near total privacy, great health, and so forth. What we specifically DIDN’T focus on was money..
If there’s a “hidden lesson to Trump” it may come from observing that he has a near monomaniacal focus on Objectives. In his mind, if an Objective will take a little more money, he will go hawk sneakers and watches. Frankly, I wish he’d bring back the Trump Vodka while he’s at it. That was fun.
But society gets people “Trapped.” It’s almost like going out for a steak dinner and being served “just the sizzle” on your platter. “Hey, where’s my Steak???” Only to have your server inform you that “The Steak is extra…you just ordered the Sizzle.”
Over my three-quarters of a century, that theme – people living for the sizzle, not the underlying meat and potatoes – has occurred more times than I can count.
Status. It’s a mirage. You can see its roots when Detroit started loading Blacks up with excessive auto loans throughout the 60s, 70s, and 80s. More recent example include what’s gone on with home prices and interest rates. Shoving people into homes that may – or may not – be worth more in the future.
We should pause in today’s discussion for a peek at…
Retail Sales
…figures that are just out.
Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation
and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $718.9 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2023. Total sales for the August 2024 through October 2024 period were up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2024 to September 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent)
So what the Fed did with its lowering was jack up car sales?
Market Futures earlier were pointing to a down ending to this week and that’s where the headline about Monday’s Bets turns interesting.
If the market can “shake-off” the soft early going today, maybe it can hold off further declines until next Tuesday, or so. Fact, now that we have (settled for now) on the yellow trend channel in our Daily Aggregate Index work, we can see to where a mid-channel support line is at hand. So nothing would be surprising about early weakness and maybe a small mid-channel bounce for a day or two.
With Bitcoin trying to scale the $90,000 level for a second run, and with Asian stocks weak here and there (though the N225 rallied 107) and the price of gold and silver confused over inflation, it’s a very interesting wager for next week. Except that we aren’t even halfway done with the present decline says one of our indicators (a differential moving average oscillator) but let’s do that part in tomorrow’s ChartPack on the Peoplenomics side.
Back to point: Some people work on Outcomes while other people get sucked into working on Incomes.
Stu’s Risk Assessment
While we’re on this Trumperian Objectives and Outcomes versus Incomes and Outgoes framework, it’s important to remember that every “view” brings along its “pet peril.” In other words, have a look at (Nostradamus expert) G.A. Stewart’s fresh article today “Worms Half Dead Without Finding a Root” and you can see the risk, I think.
You can almostgrasp how an excessive committed (to an objective) person might be inclined to make certain human resources errors. They don’t have to, though. The option is to modify or change the Objective. And that’s where the psychological backplane turns from High Achiever to High Achiever Turned Sour.
We’re not saying that Trump’s persona will make the same level of mistakes as other (historical) Objective Overdosers (Napoleon, Hitler, Kahn…the list goes on). But there’s a bit of study warranted here. Which – put in context – is how we got to Intelligent Downscaling. Owning 30 acres free and clear in a Big Urban area would have required too much “selling out” and average healthspan remaining would likely mean not achieving goal.
But you see, redefining the Goal a bit (and there are good reasons to move your personal version of Superman’s Fortress AWAY from big urban areas) made is achievable for us more than 20-years ago. Leaving us a whole bunch of time to enjoy, tweak, savor, and do other things…
It would be fascinating to look at the “real” goals of DJT. Because who is in his inner circle may run to that old Arab proverb: “The enemy of my Enemy is my Friend.” Goals (and commitment to them, and inflexibility once a plan is “set”) drive people (and has throughout history) to make HR decisions best generalized as “strange bedfellows.” Now, go reread Stu’s piece with this in mind and try it on for size as a “thinking template.”
No, we didn’t buy the Sneakers. I’m thinking about the watch. Ready to buy the Vodka. (Got that in an IV?)
Still the watch could be useful if it came with no numbers on it. I want one that has just one marking on it: Old. What “number on the way to Older” is not as important. Depending on urgency of commitment to Objective, it goes without saying.
(Is this the part I tell you “Money doesn’t make you happy but the successive achivement of goals does?)
Back to Ruminewsings
(Ruminating on news, following?)
Is Ukraine building a Nuke? Have a look at Donald Trump’s choices ‘catastrophic’ WW3 impact on Ukraine and Europe amid revenge fears. Now, think back to that part in MIB (the movie) where Tommy Lee explains “You need to look in the tabloids….” Sometimes the truth comes from odd places first…
Bad time to be in the (industrial waste) fluoride industry, looks like. As Trump picks vax-sceptic RFK Jr to head US health dept. But will he listen on other topics like Citizens Demand Investigations Of Hospital Covid Deaths?
Speaking of Health: Why are over 800mln adults worldwide living with diabetes without treatment? Wait. Don’t tell me. Has something to do with money, distribution between rich and poor, and power and control over people who need to die early to “make the numbers work”?
Back on Trump HR – it’s amusing to see the tainted headlines about the Interior Secretary pick: Trump Picks Big Oil Ally and Drilling Enthusiast Doug Burgum for Interior Secretary. Like being a Big Oil ally is bad? “Drilling enthusiast” might just mean energy development supporter and I’m not sure how that’s so awful (except to lefties) because it does generate jobs and lower costs for actual non-partisan working people.
Caught in the Lie? Yeah, sure looks that way since we pointed out there was no reason to lower rates 3/4ths of a percent when inflation is still on a roll. See the Fed Boss’s mea culpa in Fed Chair Jerome Powell says central bank in no rush to reach ‘neutral rate’. Gee, tell me again, how do you spell BS?
South Africa government’s on our shit list: South Africa won’t help trapped illegal miners : NPR. So people unable to provide for their families who went into illegal mining have been boxed in like rats and are being slowly killed? My, ain’t that government grand? (Say, wasn’t this the same government that tried running off most White farmers in S.A. over race? Sorry, off prompter there…)
At the Ranch: Dental Retrograde
Captain Gooding has been delayed – unforseeable, yada, yada. Monday or on the Captain Gooding (Rational Tribe) site over the weekend.
Also an apology because it was early this morning before a lot of the Thursday comments were approved and posted. This is because Ure is having the “molar mounted” version of “just before Retrograde. Therein, a story.
Confused? (Of course, you are!) After 75 years, patterns in your life will become apparent. In mine, bad shit happens 2-4 weeks prior to Mercury going Retrograde. And that will happen from Nov 25th to Decemberr 15th. If you aren’t clued in to the Retrograde thing, see What Does ‘Mercury in Retrograde’ Mean? Everything to Know.
So last weekend, I got a minor toothache. Molar monument with a gold crown on it. Turns out the nerve down under has decided to croak and in the process it is hurting like hell. Which set’s off a whole cause and effect thing.
Means next week, a different tooth will be worked on my schedule. And the week after, my consigliere gets to come along on a trip to the Big City (Tyler, Texas) where an endo-somethingorother is going tow perform another root canal on my wallet.
Two things piss me off about all this. First, I was ready for just about anything else that could have possibly gone wrong. Been working on all the deferred maintenance items on my To-Do list. Blind-sided by the tooth and that leads me to wonder if people have more dental issues just before the National Eating Too Much holidays (Turkey, Christmas (ham or roast beef), and New Years *(open menu).
I know – weird thing to be pondering on, but I am now chomping down pennecillin and (whoo-hoo!) painkillers. Which is a huge change from microdosing CBD, but let’s not go there.
Do dental issues cluster ahead of holidays, we wonder? Could the ADA pump up a kind of dental indicator like the Princeton EGGS?
Something for you to chew on, since I’m not in the mood. I have to write a memo to my stomach that reads “No, Mouth has not been killed or blown-up by terrorists, why are you asking?”
OK, off to nap and see if it’s the Earthquake Tireds or just all the excitement of New Drugs! Great weekend for our Atlantic-Blue Note collection, huh?
Speaking of Blue Note collections, a snappy entry on Wikipedia: “Producer Bob Porter of Prestige Records once said that “The difference between Blue Note and Prestige is two days’ rehearsal.” Blue Note paid artists to rehearse… As AI explains:
“Blue Note’s policy of paying for rehearsal time was intended to improve the quality of the final recording. For example, John Coltrane’s band was paid for rehearsal time on his 1958 album Blue Train, which resulted in a crisp performance of Coltrane’s challenging originals. “
No, Take the A Train was Ellington’s signature piece. The John train was to his last name (“‘trane’).
You know who else was on Blue Note? Bobby Hutcherson. In fact, pull up Hutcherson at 21:48 here and compare it with the Herbie Hancock version of Maiden Voyage. Oh, and speaking of Hancock, the Ahmad Jamal cover of Dolphin Dance is relaxing, too… Not too far “out there” but enough so as to help thinking without hijacking attention.
OK, no more jazz notes, we’ve readed the back page of Rolling Stoned…’lil nitrous with that? (Sure you want the trading platform up???)
Write when I get rich,
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