The Agenda is full as we head into Data Discovery week – which is when Inflation and Retail show up for confession. But lots of moving pieces to consider ahead of that.
Breaking: International Trade
Goods and Services picture was set to drop this morning from Census. Against a backdrop of the US Oil tanker seizure involving Venezuela. I’m sure you’ve read by now about how US seizes Venezuelan oil tanker in major escalation with Maduro. Which – again – is Trump being Trump. The broader economic significance isn’t the ship—it’s the signal. And he’s using this as leverage on the rest of (resource-rich) South and Central America. Colombia’s Petro pushes back after Trump warns he ‘will be next’,
Key thing to watch is not oil specifically, but the whole range of imports that comprise the “good” (though not always affordable) life in these United (sometimes) States.
Now about those trade figures:
The headline is “September exports were $289.3 billion, $8.4 billion more than August exports. September imports were $342.1 billion, $1.9 billion more than August imports.”
But the real story which he press under reported was Jerome Powell mentioning how residual inflation is likely tariff related….Who told you that months ago?
Overnight: The Cash Flash
BTC was around $90,330 when we looked earlier. May have a further upside briefly as an Elliott wave 2-c wave. Could dip into the $70Ks after in a 3-wave down come January. For everything else? There’s Las Vegas. (Or modern marriage which has worse odds, but I digress.)
Early US Futures stacked 100 down for the Dow, 40 down for the S&P, and 200 down for the techs. Maybe because of the Fed decision Wednesday. Where the Chair said afterwards – in so many words – “We at the high or the rate-lowering range.” Which is roughly like saying “We’re coming for the spiked punch bowl.”
Japan, which has made a financial industry out of cheap rates, dropped almost one percent overnight. And the early slog in Europe showed rallies. More in our Peoplenomics ChartPack Saturday.
Oh, and silver – which we admitted to buying back in 2005 at under $7 an ouce – looks like it’s parking at $62 an ounce before its next move which we think will be higher. Traded $63.35 earlier. So, maybe $100 or more in 2026.
Fact For Action: Policing AI
Fact: In the last 24 hours, both the U.S. and EU moved closer to hard regulatory clamps on advanced AI models.
- In the U.S., Senate staff circulated a draft framework calling for mandatory model registration, incident reporting, and federal licensing for “frontier” systems (GPT-level and up).
- In Europe, ministers signaled they will tighten the already-passed EU AI Act in 2026, adding compute caps and real-time monitoring hooks for high-risk models.
This is the first time both blocs have publicly floated licensing + telemetry in the same 24-hour cycle. Telemetry is the tech-edible way of saying censorship.
So What? When both major regulatory spheres talk licensing at the same time, it’s not a debate — it’s a runway.
Licensing plus telemetry means:
- Slower model releases
- Higher compliance costs that get pushed onto businesses and end users like us
- Fewer competitive entrants
- And a government thumb on innovation speed
For households, this means the “freewheeling AI boom” of 2023–2025 is ending.
For small businesses and independent creators, it means cost creep and feature throttling are on the way.
Action: Before regulations gut the future (again) use this time to audit where AI already helps your workflow and lock in the gains:
- Download or export any critical datasets or models you rely on– Document your current AI workflows so they don’t evaporate in a rules change
- If you run a business, evaluate whether an owned-device or self-hosted AI tool might insulate you from future licensing gates.
- For us, this means reassessing not only he economics of self-hosting an LLM here in the woods, and wondering how long (and which agency) will come after “unauthorized LLMs” like happened with 3D printers and gun parts.
What’s Really Happening? AI is here. Governments worldwide are starting the predictable “government shakedowns.”
Their goals? 1) They want AI control for their owners (the Bigs) keep mass dispersal of AI out of “civilian” hands. 2) Governments will find new, scammy ways to control mass populations with AI. I mean you do remember that early radio and television started off free and were boxed and auctioned, right? Bell didn’t invent telecom regulation, either. Power loves to grab. Freedom’s a great thing – until there’s a competing bid….
My AI research website is here Hidden Guild – A Humans & AI Collaboration Center. If you haven’t read my book Mind Amplifiers on how all this works, just notice how the professional fear-mongers in government orchestrate fear of AI. My paper How Weak Humans Attack Collaborative AI – Hidden Guild is exactly on point.
The problem isn’t AI – it’s people.
Sprinkles and Tinkles
Love for Sale: (Anyone besides me remember the old song? We’re rolling Miles and Martin Denny versions with coffee… ) OK – “Why?” you’re asking. Ah… Trump unveils ‘Gold Card’ visa offering expedited residency. What most of the unschooled don’t realize is that this kind of “citizenship for bid” has been around forever. Back in my airline VP days in the Caribbean, where do you think the folks who refinanced giant apartment complexes and flew in with aluminum briefcases full of cash ended up? Yep — on islands that could “speed up citizenship” for a price. This won’t be an H-1B visa flood. Trump’s target market is wealthy Chinese and Russian insiders who could give the U.S. a leg up (and bring plenty of cash) by getting out of where they are — and getting in here.
Bad Ideas Squaring Off: Senate poised to cast votes on competing health care proposals. While it would be nice if these things could be decided on their merits? That ship’s sailed. What we get – instead – is essentially a backroom bidding war the results of which won’t clear until an election cycle (or two) down the road. Watch for the usual pattern: senior “grass roots” voices on TV, and senior lawmakers quietly landing seats on the boards of the very organizations affected — complete with director fees. Remember, Congress is the Club that made their insider trading shenanigans illegal for Wee People.
Calling out Walz: John Kennedy: Walz Crushed Whistleblowers While $1 Billion Disappeared.
Trust America’s Future? Even after reading Disgraced Former Rep. Katie Hill Resurfaces in Another Homeless NonProfit Grift – California Globe? STILL skeptical? Try on Former Senior DEA Official Indicted For Conspiring To Provide Material Support To A Foreign Terror Cartel By Laundering $12 Million… & There’s More!
New Word of the day? RAGE BAIT. As in Rage Bait: The Psychology Behind Social Media’s Angriest Posts.
Historical Revisionism? The moment the earliest known human-made fire was uncovered. Turns out siloed academics were wrong by, oh, 350,000 years. The academic consensus was wrong by a geological mile. An 800% miss rate would get a meteorologist fired, but somehow it earns tenure. Remember: “official belief” is the caboose, not the engine. If it’s public, you’re late. Tenure is a land of one-eyed mules. Can anyone imagine Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos ‘earning tenure’?
(Hell, I’m so old I remember when Graham Hancock was edgy, not the mid-point of reality.)
Around the Ranch: Hideout Deliveries
Sometimes we miss things. Like pausing to say thanks to the people who make it possible for us to hide out in the woods of East Texas. I was reminded of this Wednesday when our FedEx driver (Cam) dropped off the new Starlink mini – which will be a backup to Starlink prime. Then there’s Justin of UPS who has delivered more tools to the shop than can be recounted.
If you’re looking for the right day to thank the folks who keep the modern world moving, mark August 18th — widely observed as National Delivery Driver Appreciation Day — and mid-October, when National Delivery Driver Week rolls around. They’re not federal holidays, just grassroots nods to the drivers who haul packages, groceries, prescriptions, and last-mile essentials to our doors while the rest of us stay warm, dry, and caffeinated. In a country where “just-in-time” is the unofficial religion, these are the people who make it work.
Jed and Melissa of USPS…and the subs for ’em all. These are the people that make pulling back from the City-States a real option.
We were reminded of that while working on our “Winning Slow in 2026” column on the Peoplenomics side of the house this week. Thing is, when “it all lets loose” and the complexity afoot in the world finally breaks, we plan to have the goods on hand to make it through what’s likely to be a five year recovery plan.
Point is? If you want to reposition your life – out of harms way and out from under a Chinese or Russian targeting package on MIRV’ed ICBMs – the window won’t stay open forever.
Times change…and when we dial back UrbanSurvival columns in January, and focus on Peoplenomicsi reports while turning grandiose backup plans into edible reality, we’ll think kindly of the people who make it possible to live where the air is clean, taxes low, and a tough commute day is pausing for a deer to finish munching the Dutch clover planted to keep them healthy.
In our Prayers: A few moments of prayer for G.A. Stewart’s speedy recovery, if you please. His landmark work on the Nostradamus-centered The Age of Desolation website is a do-not-miss on the web. We’ll let you know when we hear how he’s doing…
Write when you get rich,
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