Happy Tax Day!
We can launch into our old hobby of “Top Calling” now.
Our Easter Rally showed up – and was all over the place Monday. The early Futures were showing a slight increase at the open but quickly pulled back to flat.
The problem in the charts goes like this:
As you can see, we are not above the previous little squiggle higher – and it would be dandy to not over-think this move. But, I tend to do that a lot.
Overthinking 101
I do this all the time – and if there is a single reason for not owning my own island to retire to, it is that I am almost always right – but way too early. See, back in September of 2024 I was convinced the market would collapse in March 2025. Bought a pile of put options (S&P 4700 strikes). Kissed off a good used car doing so. Close, but no cigar.
What I got wrong? My timing is not the Market’s timing. End of this month – after Easter? Maybe a better call. Still, I make enough genius calls that we won’t be starving any time soon (or even in the next half century…).
I can’t be alone in this hyper-active, ADHD trading mindset, so I asked this AI stack I’ve built to give me some pointers – which you may find useful as well:
Overthinking in trading often stems from fear of missing out, perfectionism, or lack of confidence in your strategy. Here’s how to curb it:
- Set Clear Rules: Define your trading plan with specific entry and exit criteria based on technical or fundamental analysis. Stick to it religiously to avoid impulsive decisions. For example, only enter a trade when a stock hits a predetermined support level or indicator signal.
- Limit Information Overload: Reduce the noise—avoid obsessively checking news, X posts, or market chatter. Choose 2–3 reliable data sources (like price charts or economic reports) and ignore the rest during trading hours.
- Practice Patience: Train yourself to wait for high-probability setups. Journal past trades where waiting paid off to reinforce this habit. Remind yourself: missing a move is better than a bad move.
- Use Timeframes: If you act too early, shift to longer timeframes (e.g., daily instead of hourly charts) to slow your decision-making and focus on bigger trends.
Automate Decisions: Use stop-loss orders, trailing stops, or alerts to execute your plan without second-guessing. This removes emotion from the equation. - Mindset Shift: Accept that no trade is perfect. Overthinking often comes from wanting 100% certainty, which doesn’t exist. Aim for consistent execution over flawless trades.
- Routine Check-Ins: After each trading session, review what triggered overthinking—fear, greed, or doubt? Address it by tweaking your process, not your trades.
This was somewhat useful. But not nearly so much as a new process I call “Trajectorized thinking…” We’ll do that topic over on the Peoplenomics side one of these days, though, because no point in overpopulating the world with billionaires…
Meanwhile, though, the over-thining and logic chains just keep pouring out. Today’s goes something like this:
- The market should go up (pre-holiday week optimism bias).
- There is a wave count that allows for a slowing in here in the chart above – which we think is still likely to go up and “kiss the trend line” denoted by the faded, washed-out, left outside in the sun too long yellow arrow.
- We are down a fair bit from options last month, so a move higher to keep from paying off all the greedy Bears would reduce the pain level for commercials…
- But then – after the rally winds up Wednesday, would could see some weakness into the 3-day weekend with markets close Friday for Good Friday – but they all are…
- Then the market will be cleared to rally higher Monday (if Iran is now glowing by then) OR – if Iran is smacked – then we will likely see a lower week next week.
- And from there we fall on our asses and by the end of the month my (one month too early) options play could-have,-should-have,-would-have hit the 4700 level by the end of this month….
- Not last month – and you seeing how this “overthinking” shit works, now?
Mucha-Buncha Data Day
Yes, the Empire State and Trade Price numbers are interesting. But, to make sense of these it helps the hyperactive to remember the word hysteresis.
“In trading and markets, hysteresis refers to the phenomenon where the price or behavior of an asset doesn’t immediately return to its original state after a change in market conditions, due to lingering effects or delays. It’s like a lag where past events (e.g., a price shock or trend) continue to influence current prices, even when the initial trigger is gone.”
Made more complicated (for our dining and dancing pleasure) by the delay in getting the data together. See in the Import-Export Prices, today’s data is from March, not April, so tariffs jumping around like a fart on a hot skillet doesn’t matter – that WILL matter next month, but today’s not-co-secret word is hysteresis.
“U.S. import prices decreased 0.1 percent in March following an increase of 0.2 percent in February. The March decline was the first monthly drop since the index decreased 0.4 percent in September 2024. Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.9 percent from March 2024 to March 2025.
We would expect the Empire State Manufacturing Outlook from the NY Fed to be a little closer to the mark, but there’s Congress – which abdicated its Constitutional duties on Money creation, then there’s the Federal Reserve, and then (location, location) there’s the New York Fed. I mean, don’t get me wrong, the Minneapolis Fed matters, too. But, er….you wanna break it to them?
After dropping steeply last month, the headline general business conditions index rose twelve
points but remained below zero at -8.1. New orders fell modestly, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories continued to expand.
After the numbers, markets turned lower, so we will have to reponder and figure an overthink into the Thursday close…
With a few dollop of data, we can now happily rollypolly our way into what’s left to get done before the long weekend….
What in Thundering Trumpnation?
A hit off the oxygen bottle (you can get ’em on Amazon) to assist the one ultra-cogent brain cell that has survived the mass casualty event called Life, so far:
China bouncing Boeing: China tells airlines to suspend Boeing jet deliveries: Report – CNA And as if that’s not taking trade to the MAX… In latest salvo against tariffs, China assails ‘peasants in the U.S.’ Remember what day it is? Tax Chattel day!
We’re getting tired of all this Trade crap. In the latest: JD Vance Sees ‘Good Chance’ for US-UK Trade Deal Soon. In time for us to get a close-out on a Bentley, perhaps?
And we always enjoy a good statement of the obvious: China’s Xi says no winners in tariffs and trade war during Southeast Asia visit.
Harvard is being “taken to school” as we read Trump’s Demands to Harvard, Analyzed. Erudite, academic assholes in higher ed are easily confused. Trump is perfectly willing to let Harvard (and whoever) have all the free speech they can handle (yes, you may still be able to get a PhD in Bugravian gender counting). Just don’t stick America for the bill. That’s where most of the US Population is also swindled, though. There’s no more right to study (functionally useless things like gender-counting) than there is for degrees in arson. The Rational Middle just watches, appalled, but at some level, it is entertaining. Core American concepts (melting pot, genuine actual goose and gander equality) have taken refuge from the national discourse. Everyone wants to be “special” and get their own Power and Payday without the sweat equity. If Harvard can’t grasp it, maybe U Penn’s an option. Your call. Depends on whether you’re goal is functional intelligence (and a billion) or you’re after the theoretician mantle. Choices, huh? While Harvard ponders “dismantle its diversity programming, limit student protests, and submit to far-reaching federal audits in exchange for its federal funding” – we think it’s a great move. China grows engineers. America’s growing sex-change advocates and BBQ police, and coal killers. See the type-mismatch? Oh, wait…math is racist here…so pardon us!
Left-to-Marxist judicial overreach continues, too: Jesse Watters has Pam Bondi on to explain in a fast clip about MS 13 gang member… (There’s a reason why since 1971 I have referred to the 9th Circus, lol…)
Liberal media is still covering for the commies, near as we can figure. On word how Media Working Overtime to Distort the Politics of Alleged Arsonist Who Burned Pennsylvania Governor’s Mansion. Was he really a BLM-supporting lefty? (Is there another kind?)
Another shot in the arm? Here we go again – and Bill Gates financed it of course – WHY IS THE FRIGGIN FDA fast tracking this thing? WTF? And it has a carcinogen too… Hmm…we liked the maraschino with a side of nanobots better, but wouldn’t be the first time beta testing on the world for Gates, would it?
Justice Delayed is? About typical, anymore: Senior FBI Official Tied to FISA Abuse and Hunter Biden Cover-Up Suspended.
Around the Ranch: Taxes and Easter
My buddy the Major will be filing his taxes today. He had to pay this year. And in our regular phone calls to keep up on things, we both came to the idea that eventually, the goal is to get the tax code down to where only 10 percent, or less, of people will be filing.
And it’s really smart on the part of the Deep State Bureaucracy. They will be able to do less work with more people and that’s the whole point, right?
Easter roast will be unthawed shortly. We like to do a prime rib every too often. As a result, I have become an aficionado of electric carving knives. The most practical are the little $21 dollar jobbies you can score from Amazon (one-day shipping for Prime).
I keep thinking about a higher-end electric knife – longer blade and cordless would be nice. But anything with a good review is over $50. Anything above that, I can sterilize one of those baby chainsaws and have more cat scraps leftover, and come out money ahead.
I am on the lookout, though. Also – a reminder from my consigliere – watch for deals on ham over the next week. Oftentimes, there will be good sales around Easter of just after – and he’s been lucky enough to freeze a few at less than a buck-a-pound. I don’ty see prime rib going that cheap, but I’ll be making a protein run next week…
Off to another exciting day of….where’s the list? Can’t do anything without my damn list…
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
Read the full article here
