Fill’er to the rim – or is that brim? Odd ducks be quacking in the land of Sim.
Will this be “Joe Go Day” with a side of Fed Shock? Hmm…
Charts that Wow!
New all-time Aggregate Index highs came rolling in after the Trump win and today we are expecting some carry-forward and maybe to the top of the resurgent (yellow) trend channel in this view of things Elliott and Channel-ish.
The “future-scope” thinks there’s a good chance of a Fed decision that could get us to the top of this channel today (and into tomorrow). At which time, we will be cowards in the corner because we think the odds of Israel doing some further weekend-ass-kicking are pretty high. Especially with the firing of their Defense Minister (Gallant) this past week. He was known as one of the anti-nuke standouts in the Netanyahu war cabinet. Gloves off.
Prospects for the weekend are also dim (given the Trump) win because he has promised to end the war in (over, for) Ukraine. Which means from now to mid-January, Zelenskyy can go “weapons free” and prosecute deeper (more aggravating) strikes inside Russia.
And like we reminded subscribers Wednesday, China’s also likely to resolve Taiwan shortly because Harris (if Biden isn’t tossed on an Article 25) will be a push-over (no jokes, please) in comparison to Trump. Which then wheels in a false flag on an EU nuke plant as a false flag for NATO to jump in and an attack on Phoenix where the new 4 nm chips originate – the kind without a boat ride in the middle (from Taiwan).
Yes, we like that Trump won, but now comes the knock-on events and some of them aren’t too pretty – if they happen at all.
Nose Down, Back to Present
Productivity and Costs report is just out. Have a gander:
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 3.5 percent and hours worked increased 1.2 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annualized rates.) From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2024.
Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a 4.2-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 2.2-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 3.4 percent over the last four quarters.
BLS calculates unit labor costs as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity. Increases in hourly compensation tend to increase unit labor costs and increases in productivity tend to reduce them. Real hourly compensation, which takes into account consumer prices, increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter of 2024, and increased 2.8 percent over the last four quarters.
Then we have the new weekly unemployment filings which have continued well toward the lower end of range going into the election:
Bulldog edition – waiting for content release
And as for “how it felt” in the several states which made comment on filing this week:
Bulldog edition – waiting for content release
Your libretto should reveal the Fed today at 2 PM EST, then the chairman’s foot-shuffle at 2:30 followed by Consumer Confidence.
The week wraps up tomorrow with one of keep an eye on: Michelle Bowman – one of the regional Fed bosses – and a really good reader of economic Reality is scheduled to be the first of the Talking Heads after Powell that follow rate decisions. We’ll be paying attention to what she says. Not to mention if her scheduling in advance has any particular meaning to it.
Sitting by for events.
Shading a Few Bets
The loss of Taiwan is not something we like to dwell on, but it’s a biggie. And today we read another indicator of how China may have put itself into a “move on Taiwan” before the Inauguration. US, China must ‘get along’, Xi tells Trump. This is the same Trump, who during a state dinner with Xi, was launching missiles on Syria in 2017 – and then coming back to finish a leisurely dinner – making Trump someone who Xi probably wouldn’t want to play poker with.
Which gets to the point that Ms. Word Salad’s “dark night and shiny stars concession (more charitably reported in Kamala Harris Concedes 2024 Election, But Not The Fight) had a certain (typical) barnyard Eau to it.
Today we are expecting either a) a Strong Joe speech with about equal odds on the b) Joe resigns and wants Kamala to be President while he saunters off to the beach (after, of course, pardoning Hunter).
No. Not only should 51 former security officials who signed the Russiagate hoax have their clearances gone now, but Joe’s kid should only be pardoned after a Ukraine-Biden Sr. audit by an impartial panel of forensic accountants. I happen to know of one such retired Chair of such a business department.
Meanwhile, son George2 explained the entire election and blowing up of woke/DEI. “Dad, if you want to understand everything go watch this episode of South Park: Put a chick in it and make it lame and gay – with disney references.” Um, yeah then…
Short beer on the side bet Biden says something like “It shows the American people wanted Kamala, so because of my health, I am stepping aside to….” And you can see the rest which we’ve been yammering on.
Meanwhile, I’ve been practicing writing – like Bart on the blackboard, right?
- “If Kamala is President I won’t make fun of her…”
- “If Kamala is President I won’t make fun of her…”
- “If Kamala is President I won’t make fun of her…”
- “If Kamala is President I won’t make fun of her…”
- “If Kamala is President I won’t make fun of her…”
- “If Kamala is President I won’t make fun of her…”
- “If Kamala is President I won’t make fun of her…”
Yet.
More Worldly Matters
If I can’t get Jessica Rabbit’s number, so much for Toonville.
War is no joke: An 8-hour Russian drone barrage keeps Kyiv on edge as the war in Ukraine nears 1,000 days. And how many billions did you say? And it may be starting like now. Because we have one report that “Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian naval base in Kaspiysk, Republic of Dagestan for the first time on November 6 damaging several missile ships of the Russia Caspian Sea Flotilla.” We suppose if you’re anxious for WW III then going weapons-free comes with it… but striking 1,200 miles from Kyiv? Moscow is only 470 miles away and looks like the neoliberals and NATO want to amp the war to regional before Trump sits in the Oval.
Germany is back to eating its own: German coalition gov’t collapses as Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismisses finance minister.
While the Green Industry sees realists like Vance and Musk rising, the hype on the way out gets more shrill: COP29: Climate Action Crucial to Protect Rights. Naw, it’s to protect a Globalist business model *(which we’d be OK with if they’d just get clean about it…) (Soros family might considert an earplug industry for their (and the muthaWEFer’s excesses.) America ain’t sinking, fortunately.
And the Left’s global attack on free speech picks up speed: Australia to legislate social media ban for those under 16. But, wait! Shouldn’t there be something like a “digital driving test” before throwing children to the marketing wolves of the web? Have to pass an IQ test before web access if under 12 or…something?
Are Canadians just lazy, or what? Canada orders TikTok to close its business in the country | Fortune. I know! Maybe they don’t have the means (or they would have used it during the Trucker’s strike?)
AI on the road to Ubiquity: Microsoft shoves AI features into even more Windows 11 apps including Paint and Notepad.
Around the Ranch: Positional Probability
“OK, what am I doing here again? I had the lucid dream earlier this week and put it in a column…so what am I doing back in Dream Realms in this kind of Dream for?”
“You’re going to school, George, now pay attention…”
With that the lesson began. I was shown two stacks of paper and four note cards..
“One of these piles is your actual content in your new Longevity book. The other pile is all the story and tone box content.”
“Gee, looks about equal, don’t it?”
“Not our point. Positional Probability projections to turn you into a Famous Author show that you need to write a “most brilliant” sentence on each of these 4-by-6 cards and then find good places in the book to put them. Then you get to be famous…”
“Wanna come again? What are you talking about?”
“Let’s refresh. You were told that probability is positionally dependent. And this is apparent in the example if you stand one place, a tree will fall on you and if you stand in another, the tree will not. Remember that?”
“Uh…yeah…I remember learning that. Odds change on where you are…sure.”
“What we may have skipped is that ALL probability is positional. So with your book, we can project probable future to the degree we know what certain things will be in certain positions. Like Astrology, but no need for stars. It’s all about the second derivative of positional differentiation.”
“Everything? Like even that mysterious figure-eight that happens on the floor of Casinos when slots are paying off big?”
“Yes. Except most people can’t seem to comprehend that the figure-eight of payoffs is the after-effect by a minute or so of a positional probability wave making its way around the Casino. Payoffs take time?”
“And you’re explaining this to me now at age 75 why, exactly? I always ran to the bells, and didn’t front-run the probability wave! Why, that might work… But why me?”
“Closest dream boundary messenger we could find on short notice for this one. So just go back and write a column on “positional probability” and everything will be fine. One of your Readers will recognize the ENORMITY of what you’re saying and will follow it to a breakthrough.”
“Do I get a royalty?”
“Want one?”
“Well, I’m not a Biden, or anything, but…um…sure…”
“OK, done. Go wake up, write the column, and in a few years, you’ll get your slice. Just remember to make it clear that randomness is a function of manifold spacetime and that requires that probability – like real estate – be based on location, location, location.”
“Shouldn’t I send a note to the Princeton EGGS people, or something? Because if what you’re saying is true, then you could use multiple random number generators in a large formation to detect probability waves and gosh, we’d be able to solve the double-split paradox and damn near everything else…”
“Just go write and we’ll see if we hit the probability position of today’s column right…Make sure G.W. Franke reads your column today, too.”
So I did, and we’ll see.
(What I secretly suspected was that these entities/oddities were friends of Andy’s, though…or I am having serial Phillip K. Dick moments…)
Write when you get rich,
Read the full article here
