Busy Friday here, so let’s jump right into the EmpSit – employment situation – report just out:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction.”
This isn’t too surprising since the JOLTS numbers Tuesday were good, ADP reported the world not ending on Wednesday, and the layoffs were low in the Challenger job cuts Thursday. I mean, it would need to have been a biggie to get things “off the rails.”
Now, having said that, the database numbers are what drive our thinking, so let’s focus there for a second. Since you will see a gap usually between the “establishment data” and the household data. One the politicos don’t talk too much about. But it gives everyone some talking points.
Yes – that’s A GAIN OF 430,000 JOBS – So again, we ask – Why did the Fed lower a 1/2 point??? Political bullshit!
Then there’s the CES Birth-Death Model which estimates jobs into – and out of – existence… added 460 thousand for the month: CES Net Birth-Death Model (bls.gov)
While jobs matter, the REAL employment deal today is?
Longshoremen Go Back
Yeah. Color us skeptical too, but no one is asking. Striking port workers to return to work Friday as negotiators reach an agreement on wages. Well, sort of. Yes, they ILA is going back until January. BUT the sticky parts – like machines and automation on the docks are still floating out there. So while the existing contract is extended – and there’s talk of $5 bucks more (per hour, per year for the coming six years) – we think everyone will be in much harder positions (outside the Union) which – for now – has been in the catbird seat.l
Hurricane Help
…is slowly coming. But the death count is growing as more recovery efforts are underway: Hurricane Helene live updates: At least 215 dead as some communities struggle to get basic supplies. The good news is that a longshore strike won’t impact imports for a couple of months now.
In the meantime, there could be more weather woes to come as Florida impacts: Hurricane Kirk, Tropical Storm Leslie, Gulf system are being eyed.
And what is it that Tampa, Florida doesn’t need any more of right now? Yep: rain. Gulf of Mexico disturbance likely to bring heavy rain to Tampa Bay. But how much? Meanwhile, I hope to hear from G.A.Stewart of the popular Nostradamus-focused The Age of Desolation web site this weekend. Stu’s gotten slammed and is moving while working to get some of the mission critical training facilities at McDill (the pickle) AFB (which is out on the peninsula south of the city of Tampa) back on line.
War and the Weekend
Kharg or nukes? Let’s begin with the most recent dust-ups first: Israel-Iran live updates: Beirut strikes target new Hezbollah leader Safieddine; Khamenei praises missile attacks. And while the West puts on the happy-face, there is a story in the Washington Post today on some of the missiles getting through. Specifically in Iranian missiles hit multiple Israeli military sites, videos show – The Washington Post.
Which leads into the question what will happen next. One option is for Israel to attack the massive oil facility at Kharg Island. It wouldn’t be the first time, reminds Wikipedia:
“Once the world’s largest offshore crude oil terminal and the principal sea terminal for Iranian oil, the Khark Island facilities were put out of commission in the fall of 1986. Heavy bombing of the Khark Island facilities from 1980 through 1988 by the Iraqi Air Force during the Iran–Iraq War very nearly destroyed most of the terminal facilities. Khark Island was situated in the middle of the Darius Oilfield, also destroyed by the intensive bombing. Repair to all facilities has been very slow, even after the war ended in 1988. The events experienced by this island gave rise to the dispute in the English contract law case The Kanchenjunga [1990] 1 Lloyd’s Rep 391, regarding the conditions for repudiatory breach of contract and a claimant’s right to elect to accept repudiation.”
The Biden administration is trying to talk Israel into waiting a month to get past the elections here. But that presses Israel to do something about the Iranian nuclear project which likely by now has between one and three old-style nukes. All it would take would be some “big eyes in space” reporting loading of a device (or devices) into cargo planes for “one way delivery” to Israel and then the whole Middle East lights up.
So while we wait to see what happens with Iran’s up to 40-billion gallons a year or energy shipments, remember any Israeli first use would then let Russia more immediately reach for tactical devices in Ukraine (and adjacent) countries.
In the meanwhile, though, we can see oil becoming a real fulcrum of the lead-in the WW III. Especially with Explosions and UAV attack reported in Russia’s Voronezh Oblast on October 4. So Russia energy is under attack and Iran’s soon could be. And suddenly those Goldman forecasts of a further $20 spike in oil prices could become very real.
Freaking mess.
But there’s Good News
In that China is still on break and won’t be able to invade Taiwan for at least several weeks. Taiwan is going through their own version of Helene right now as you can see in the video of 3 Kaohsiung 7-Eleven store clerks bracing door blown back by Krathon.
LCD Entertainment
While the grown-ups are looking for radiation meter deals, the LCD crowd – which you know stands for lowest common denominator peeps – are fully wrapped around distractions left, right, and center.
In the Center Ring today: Country singer Garth Brooks accused of rape in new lawsuit.
While in the Right Ring: Melania Trump defends abortion, challenging husband’s campaign (yahoo.com).
Then in the Left Ring: Calling Trump ‘petty’ and ‘vindictive,’ Liz Cheney makes conservative case for Harris. Another fair wind nest-feathering RINO, anyone?
Down in the Narco-state next door – which we stupidly have left the border open to – 12 bodies bearing signs of torture found with cartel messages in Mexico, authorities say – CBS News. Democrats are incurrable stupes on this one.
At the Ranch: STS Special & Video Friday
First the STS Special: Both Amazon and Wal-Mart are going head-to-head next week for any leftover, uncommitted consumer discretionary income you might have left. (If you do, you may be single, lol.)
So drop by Sunday when we lay out a nice, methodical system for Tool Sluts to get their fix. “Tell me, what do you truly desire for your shop?” (Sounds like a Lucifer Morningstar query. If you don’t know who that is, see this video for clues:
A Useful Phone Call: My consigliere happened to call around lunch time Wednesday as Elaine and I were cutting up a hunk of beef to make spaghetti. The kind that you cook for about 5-hours on a low simmer so the meat is fall-apart tender and oh so good as leftovers.
“Don’t forget to be careful when you’re climbing the Spaghetti trees for dinner – you know G2 says ladders are dangerous.”
“What the hell does that mean?”
“I’ll send you a link…” *Which he did…
As it turned out, we were forced to use noodles from the lasagna bush, because thanks to the heavy rains this year, spaghetti weevils took out most of the Texas spaghetti crop.
Chris Tyreman, who does award winning art (like the cover for my book The 100-Year Toaster – which is about how planned obsolescence is killing us – has another dandy example of his wry ad man humor in this video about going camping…
I’ve got to get Chris going on the revised title and a cover for the anti-aging book serialized on the Peoplenomics.com site. Chapter 12 (Sex and other Mine Fields) went up this week. Trying to get Chapter 13 (Nibbles and Buzz) done this weekend…
Say, that gets me to looking at the clock and gee, time to get to work… or at least what passes for work, around here…
Write when you get rich,
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