On what rational planet would multiple wars, growing threats, flawed personalities vying for “leadership” and impending natural disasters be a formula for markets to move seriously higher at the open?
Well, this one.
The markets began a modest decline Wednesday, but overnight some very significant plays were turned in. In one of these, Japan’s market – as measured by the Nikkei 225 average, screamed ahead more than 1,000 points which is an eyelash under 2.8 percent higher. The theory is that with the U.S. skipping a beat Wednesday, Asian Markets surge as Japan’s Nikkei and China’s CSI 300 lead the rally.
Our (extremely) cynical view is that two things are going on at the same time in the world. First – and foremost for markets – there’s not much else to buy. Gold and silver have been doing OK, but even knocking on $2,700, gold is too stodgy for the go-go hustling financial engineers. Everyone knows there’s more gold “leased” than can ever be “covered” so the paper gold (and paper silver for that matter) is likely already set to burn in the bonfire of the financialities.
In the wake of the Housing bubble collapse, some of the hedgies bought real estate – and that did OK – because there were low rates and willing buyers. But, we seem to recall that COVID fundamentally changed the nature of the work world: Who needs an office building, if you have Zoom and high-speed at home? That makes putting any additional money into commercial real estate sketchy – at best – until we have the (still pending) “come to Jesus” about empty office towers.
Oil and gas exploration was once a hot sector, too…but then came Biden and the climate clowns. They’re coming for our BBQs and offering bugs to eat in return. Thanks, but, um…no! Oil – even in the smoking final leg of the blow-off top was well under $70 this morning.
Markets Last?
Yes, this has been an expensive little financial science project for Ure. And we’re seeing now that the market could go higher from here which would give the fat cats a chance to unload equities on the unsuspecting public.
GDP and More
The problem with GDP is it doesn’t represent widgets or calories of actual goods. It’s an economic measure where the units are Dollars. And these can be made up on the sly (and fly) so take this with a cardiologist sized dose of salt…
“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.6 percent (revised). The second-quarter increase in real GDP was the same as previously estimated in the “second” estimate released in August. The increase in the second quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, inventory investment, and business investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.”
Durable Goods, too…
“New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up six of the last seven months, increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $289.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 9.9 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Electrical equipment, appliances, and components, up two of the last
three months, drove the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $14.4 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $289.4 billion.
And yes, still no logical reason in sight for the Fed to give away a half point though maybe Powell will say something about it this morning – he’s due to talk. But no big lines at the employment office:
After all the numbers, gold edged above $2700…and silver was holding just under $33 after briefly being above.
Militarily, War is Pending
You can thank the neocons and the likes of Blinken. Because too many years (of too many democrats) has left America’s once mighty Defense with feet of clay.
We bemoaned on Peoplenomics Wednesday about the accident to the ONLY U.S. Fleet Oiler the Navy has to service the steaming and aviation needs of US naval forces (including a carrier) in the Arabian Sea. While you take a gander at Oiler USNS Big Horn Now in Port in Oman as Congress Raises Questions Over Logistics Fleet – USNI News, pay close attention to how the acci-bent is being described. The Navy refers to an “allision.” No, a collision involves two ships. As AI clarifies:
“Allision is a maritime law term that describes when a moving vessel collides with a stationary object, such as a dock, bridge, or anchored ship. The term is distinguished from collision, which refers to when two moving vessels strike each other.”
The Navy isn’t offering specifics. Which any old newsman (we have one handy) will tell you “Usually means the situation is such a mess that it would endanger flag officer careers were it to be fully disclosed. So the DoBBS (Dictionary of Bureaucratic Bullshit) comes out so as not to scare the little people who are looking for a new ringmaster for the national circus.
Gads zooks – can it get worse?
Putin Sharpening Nukes
Forget “can” – it already has gotten worse. Putin reveals new rules on nuclear weapons in Russia’s latest threat (cnbc.com).
The HUGELY important pull quote here is?
““What I would especially like to draw your attention to, is that in the updated version of the document, aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation,” Putin said.”
Mean like the U.S. (Biden, Blinken and Ms Harris, et al) who are hip deep – and getting deeper – into the Ukraine War which we spent $6-billion starting when the US overthrew the elected government of Ukraine in 2014? Why sure.
China’s Missile Launch also a HUGE Deal
Buried in the last week’s news were stories about the Chinese missile test. China Releases Photo of Rare ICBM Test in Pacific. As we hear it, this is likely as close to a “live fire” drill as you can get. Base on? Of all thing…warhead color in the photos.
China has a number of ways they test missiles.
- Dud, proper weight missile, dud, proper weight warhead. (Not a big worry)
- Dud, proper weight missile, dud, proper weight warhead, with embedded electronics to give operators correct signals. (Close to a combat ready version)
- Hot, live missile, hot, live warhead, full “go to war” weapon. They train with these as well, at least for air defense training (We hear this is what this test was.)
Now, here’s the REALLY worrisome (in case China with hundreds of silos isn’t a worry for any rational consumer of Asian-made goods, already…): We have rread a report that “Japan Coast Guard official said it had received a navigation warning from China on Monday for “space debris” in three zones in South China Sea and the Pacific north of the Philippines’ Luzon island, and in the South Pacific, on Wednesday. ”
This launch from Hainan Island was, therefore on a line with Hawaii. If you don’t see the Big Message here, you’re an idiot.
Nuclear Scholarship – 1980
People forget things all the time. Makes sleeping a lot easier. Remember my friend who was the doc for the real “Men who stare at Goats” in the old days?
With Israel going into Lebanon, we keep moving toward that Biblical prophesy part about Damascus becoming uninhabitable, right?
“What’s to say that Syria doesn’t have a nuclear weapon in Damascus that somehow detonates? It’s recently been revealed that they have a secret nuclear program to make plutonium.
So, search for “hidden nuclear in Damascus.” It brings up articles about a 1980 nuclear missile warhead that was blown out of its silo by the explosion of the rocket. Where? At Damascus, Arkansas. Is it possible that this is the archetypicals antecedent of the Isaiah 17 prophecy?”
Well, of course the Official US Intel view is Syria doesn’t have the resources to brew up plutonium. But, when my serious doc tells me something I don’t know (easily done) I do look it up. Sure enough: 1980 Damascus Titan missile explosion – Wikipedia. The warhead, retrieved, went back to Pantex in northwest Texas for salvage. It was a 9 megaton W-53 which certainly is an attention-getter for Isaiah 17 fans…
In the ME Today
The fuse war” in Lebanon continues to heat up with Israel media claims 40,000 fighters have arrived near the Golan Heights to support Hezbollah – Middle East Monitor. And, yes, this is a good bet for the next humanitarian disaster because Thousands flee into Syria from Lebanon as conflict worsens between Hezbollah and Israel.
If Putin changing doctrine to allow direct response to the West and now Israel warring on several fronts isn’t enough, stay tuned.
The Idiots at Large
Once again, the asylum was left unlocked overnight.
Pants on fire? Kamala Harris doubles down on her claim that she worked at McDonald’s (rumble.com). Didn’t Slo Joe tell her to fix it? Kamala: “We do have a broken immigration system, and it needs to be fixed.” (rumble.com) Almost four years in with all the help in the Senate and still no solutions. Quick, let’s vote for “More nothing!”
Speaking of democrats we question, here’s another: Eric Adams first sitting NYC mayor to be indicted by grand jury: sources (nypost.com). Bit of newsroom humor? “He’s not a crook…he’s a democrat mayor!”
And what’s with the “conditioning” instead of some arrests? ABC, CNN Mention Bounty on Trump from Ryan Routh’s Letter 21 Times in Two Days.
FCC Sells Out to Soros. Another high-rolling democrat slam and jam, looks like to us as Soros’ Acquisition of 200 US Radio Stations Ahead of Election Being Fast-Tracked by FCC.
Guess who’s coming to dinner! (Helene!)
We don’t like sloppy dinner guests…but no one asked…
At the Ranch: Sore Muscles
This will turn into a supply run and writing day for us.
After mowing the rifle range Wednesday, about 3-hours tractor-back mowing a power line right of way and pushing up brush. I made a decision to clean up several “fuel jackpots” that G2 had pointed out, one of which is 2-acres of solidly overgrown brush. With a handheld electric chainsaw and a hedge trimmer (which works pretty well for trimming yaupon), I got a fair amount of clean-up done. try cutting and then pushing up a couple of acres of wildland sometime – quite the fitness routine.
Almost didn’t get out of the shower, as a result, however. Standing there – waiting for the ibuprofen to kick in…well, it’s a miracle there’s a column here today. Yes, this is why a continuous hot water heater isn’t here.
New CPAP machine showed up this week: a Philips Resperonics DreamStation2 and it’s very much along the lines of my ResMed AirSense 11. A comparison of the units here. The DreamStation unit replaces a unit I bought from LOOB (three years ago, was it?). That unit was recalled (if you follow CPAP technology) and the new replacement works fine so now we have a great backup machine.
At the time I started using a CPAP the Philips recall had just been announced and I had a long wait for the ResMed device. Tested the original Philips and it was safe having not been used with oxygen which sped up the breakdown of internal parts subject to degradation. New one is a nice unit and worth considering.
Also, we get CPAP supplies from Amazon for disposables – their pricing has been better than what some online retailers ask.
Getting good reviews on the ham bands in idle chitchat: The Text & Spam Call Blocker App That Actually Works | Robokiller which seems to do OK. I hate telemarketing calls. The Major says if you just say “Hello” and nothing more, a lot of them will think it’s an answering machine and just hang up. I use the calls to tune up my swearing strings for later shop use. Related: The Handiest Word in English (bastard) according to The Honey Badger. Too refined and not graphic enough for us, though… (When the F word is not enough…)
Write when you get rich (and hire a gardener),
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