Might as well get right to the NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing number, first today…
“After climbing into positive territory last month, the headline general business conditions index retreated twenty-three points to -11.9. New
orders fell, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times were slightly shorter, while supply availability deteriorated somewhat. Inventories shrank.”
Markets, perhaps still on the bubbly from Monday, were about flat on the report.
The markets are still going up – because this might be characterized (as I think Martin Armstrong did…) as the “crack up boom.”
Well, except not everywhere. Bitcoin was $65,671 when I looked earlier, which is still off the all-time high over $70 thousand.
The metals are holing up well – because we are still spending more than ever. With the official Public Debt to the Penny in the range of $35.532 trillion and actual debt (which includes the promised interest that we can’t welsh on, is over $157-trillion. Making each American liable for $980,000. (Yes, we are all “tax chattel” and no going back peacefully… the term a free people is so yesterday, huh?)
The Great Depression of 2025
Worked several hours Monday – with more coming today – on the Great Depression of 2025 and how we slide into that. (More on the Peoplenomics.com website for subscribers tomorrow…)
The highlights of this morning include:
If you’re having a tough time following the concern, put your thinking cap on and see what happens when/if all at once, China takes Taiwan and North Korea takes South Korea.
- We reckon the US markets would loose 60-70 percent of the price over a two month period.
- Hyperinflation (which we’re already nibbling at (looking at you Biden, you Schumer, and you Harris) would be here because U.S. independence and autonomy in world affairs has been systematically squandered by innumerate liberals.
- The Great Depression of 2025 would also come to Europe because with Iran striking Israel, the flight of Israelis to Poland, and the Russian attack on NATO, the whole world will be wrapped up in war which gets in the way of making food, useless apps, and a sustainable future.
We could get into the weeds, like how to get rich stockpiling most-used Kia and Hyundai parts in such a world. But for now, that’d be taken as ravings of a fool. On the other hand, though, some sobering headlines can be found.
On the North Korean risk, the recent South Korean drone probes into the North have been just another way the War Mongers/Neocons are trying to light up WW III ahead of U.S. elections because they can’t have control and Trump in office, so they are pressing hard on the “Harris is leading” paradigm while pulling every trick they can think of to light up global war before the election.
Unfortunately for them, most of the rest of the world (if you read outside of U.S, (effectively) state media is already onto the game. Russia accuses South Korea of ‘flagrant’ violation of North Korea’s sovereignty with drones (hani.co.kr). And yes, ahead of BRICS next week, there’s Putin trying to be band leader.
Lest you think we’re getting a little too worked up over China drill: Taiwan reports record 153 military planes – DW – 10/15/2024, Remember that now we’re talking more than flying machines: China Protests Taiwanese Leader’s Remarks With Mass Naval Drill (maritime-executive.com).
The Brits meantime, who have their hands full (and treasury emptying with Ukraine costs) is whistling in the graveyard as the UK urges China to exercise restraint after military drill around Taiwan, but we don’t think China has anything approaching restraint in mind.
Like us, the Asia Times has figured out that these Latest Taiwan drills show how PLA intends to deter US – Asia Times. And with no aircraft carriers in the Western Pacific for another week, perhaps two, we are in a super high-risk period before elections.
Our key indicator of China taking Taiwan in the window may be any increase in Trump polling numbers. Harris is likely perceived in China as an easier opponent to sit across from than Donald Trump. But as Trump rising in polls going into the election, we’d figure the risks will be rising.
Then there’s the Iran Problem
OK, why hasn’t Israel popped Iran back for the recent missile attack? Trying to figure out how to play the payback game, more than likely. As of today, the official line seems to be that Netanyahu will only strike military targets in Iran, reports say. Naturally (markets hear only what they want to hear) the price of oil has crumbled in the early futures today: Oil prices drop 3% as Israel eases fears of strikes on Iranian oil – Shafaq News.
But would you trust Israel not to pop Kharg Island terminal facilities (anyway) especially when US sanctions Iran’s ghost fleet after Israel attack (ship-technology.com).
Whatever is going to happen could be tonight. Or this weekend. A key leading indicator is already going off as Signal of an imminent response to Iran: Israel begins disrupting GPS signals.
Our sense is that when things “blow” it will come (more or less) all at the same time. When the Israeli attack on Iran goes off, that’d be precisely the moment that China could move: remember, no carriers out West, and the Situation Room’s going to be hands full with Russia.
With these two war fronts going hot – mind you Israel is already kinda busy with fighting in Lebanon and there are still problems in Gaza, Russia has what amounts (tactically) to almost a free lane to swim in Ukraine. Russian forces advance in Toretsk and near 4 Ukrainian villages.
Russia, also, is looking at the “shot clock” now because it’s getting on toward winter and that makes military maneuvers somewhere between miserable and shitty.
Our bushel basket of long-term put options is upside down (for today’s open) but we think the strategic (long-term) view holds water. We’ve lost money before holding a position too long when the facts change. But seems to us that the odds of a Depression 2025 are not going down any time soon. At least before lunch, anyway. This is not financial advice.
Quibbles, Drivels, and Shams
Militarization of FEMA seems to be a historical drift direction, as I told you in Monday’s column. We’re sure you saw FEMA resuming normal North Carolina operations after scaling back due to threat. However the charges seem pretty minor, so far: North Carolina Man Arrested After Threatening FEMA Employees Helping in Hurricane Helene Efforts (thesource.com) We’re not even sure what the charge “Going Armed to the Terror of the Public” means. But in a January post this year, the University of North Carolina law blog explains the charged concept this way (It’s really an interesting concept to explore…):
“Reminiscent of the Wars of the Roses, our Supreme Court’s recent opinion in State v. Lancaster, __ N.C. __, 895 S.E.2d 337 (2023), concerns an offense first codified in 1328 during the reign of Edward III. The common law crime of going armed to the terror of the public, our Supreme Court there held, does not require allegation or proof that the conduct occurred on a public highway; hence, there was no facial defect in an indictment omitting this putative element. Other elements not explicitly stated in the same indictment – for the purpose of terrifying, in a manner that would naturally terrify – were “clearly inferable.” This post examines Lancaster to ascertain the direction of our Supreme Court’s avowed retreat from archaic pleading requirements.”
Question is whether this (alleged, misdemeanor) is going to get traction to militarize FEMA. While we ponder that, however, the tough questions about FEMA financial conduct (and fealty to America’s actual citizens) are mounting as Top House committee launches probe into Biden admin ‘priorities’ on FEMA hurricane relief, migrant spending. One Nation, under whom?
Government Owns Your children now: EXCLUSIVE: Biden-Harris Admin Paves Way For Bureaucrats To Take Gender-Confused Kids From ‘Non-Affirming’ Parents. Doubling down on the woke-joke seems like “a toke too far” this close to an election, but common sense isn’t.
But the Fix is In to Break America: Dem Judge Nixes Legal Bid To Keep Noncitizens Off AZ Voter Rolls (thefederalist.com). Arizona thus becomes the newest state in Mexico, as we figure it. Because in America, only legit citizens vote, at least that’s what reality was when I signed up for this merrygoround almost 76 years ago…
And is Slo the only one with memory issues? Maybe not…Libs of TikTok on X: “New York Times basically admits Kamala plagiarized and there were “lapses” in her book but then blames *Conservatives* for noticing and pointing it out. Unbelievable. Oh, that’s right…we can read. (Wonder if that makes reading, um…you know…racist too?)
And why isn’t US state-controlled media reporting the Appeals Court hearing on the democrat-backed Trump case in NY courts? Karli Bonne’ on X: “This is so good!
Houston Bureau Updates
Here’s a bitter pill to (not) swallow: Walgreens is closing 1,200 stores | CNN Business. We have to wonder how many of those stores will be in small towns of America where there are only one or two pharmacies? More pressure to move to big (more well controlled) cities?
Also on the financial ropes: True Value declares bankruptcy, sell to Do It Best.
Weathering Heights
(With pun apologies to Emily Brontë.)
AL-94 is shaping up in the mid-Atlantic today. 30 percent chance of more blow to go. Meanwhile Experts worry Florida’s 2024 hurricane season could wipeout recent homeowners insurance ‘fixes’ – Orlando Weekly
Here in the Outback we’re studying La Nina is now delayed. Here’s what it means for Texas’ winter. Thursday, NOAA is doing it’s annual winter weather prediction media briefing for reporters. Which means you can look for a ton of “winter weather look-ahead stories this weekend. However, as is becoming clear in the current precip forecast for the balance of the year, the drought may be about to unwind a bit in the northwest and northeast:
Choose your winter tires and travel plans accordingly.
Around the Ranch: Temp Break
This could be IT for the year: Last day with a high temp over 90F. Tomorrow, the temps are predicted to drop to a daytime high of only 70 and down into the lower 40s at night.
As you should be able to tell from the forecast map above, it has been bone dry here, lately. But to every cloud there is a silver lining. Our solar power production with all the sun shine has been dandy. As the temps have come down, the amount of power we are selling back to the grid has been going up…
In this chart, the green bars are what we buy (for about 10.5 cents a kwhr) while the red is what we sell (but at .054 cents a kwhr).
This doesn’t seem right to us – we think that homeowners should be credited for their power generation (back to the grid) at the same rate that the grid sells to us. To make their case, power companies around the country have gone into accounting gobbledygook inventing “avoided cost” accounting.
There’s some logic to the argument that yes, they still have to run a power line to our home…” and I don’t have to pay (as a generator) for the maintenance and operation of those lines. Check. Got that. But, that being the case, what is the $20-buck “Customer Charge” for?
I won’t complain too often. Because we have something that a lot of people don’t have: energy resilience. Toss in a big propane tank, back up heater off that and a dual-fuel genset and we’re in pretty good shape.
As I’ve had time to improve the engineering on our system, the power costs have really come down. But the point is if America was really serious about green, we would demand that all power sell backs be at equal rates. So that if someone who is clever wants to put in a field of panels and sell back power to make a few bucks, why not let them?
Oh…because corporations have more rights than homeowners, maybe? And that by owning the accounting rules, you own the residents? As the FedGov has led the way, tax and labor chattel is all citizens are really good for.
As much was clear in the the movies when we were younger:
“The quote from the 1971 movie Billy Jack is “Tell me, where is that place? Where is it? In what remote corner of this country-no-entire goddamn planet is there a place were people really care about one another and really love each other?”
Once upon a time in America. For now, it’s a one-way street; with only limited “Power to the people.”
Write when you get rich,
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