Circle Veterans Day Weekend – BoJ Holds

While we have great respect for “future processors” – G.A. Stewart (“Deep Breath before the Plunge”) based on Nostradamus’ writings and Clif High’s predictive linguistics work (“Idiots“). In our view financial markets and press releasse (plus major events) calendars come at Future from “the other way.”

Taken as a whole – all of them together can shape and inform a sense of how the Future will play out.

Within finance, the future-indicating aspects include:

The level and directional changes seen for interest rates.
Which, in turn, change the balance of foreign exchange (warfare).
Discounts or premium on long-dated financial instruments like put nd call options.

I’m sure you know the rest: Cyclical economics, earnings windows, current sales statistics and even this week’s Fed rate decision.

They are ALL telling us of the Future. But in a peculiar way.

Imagine you are watching an empty street. The Nostradamus’ writings might offer an analogy like “A vehicle will come by very soon…” Predictive linguistics may offer insights like “loud, purple, cracked window”. And a few blocks over, one of those automatic click-it and ticket machines has just written a citation for 13-over the limit. Oh, and there’s an APB out on the police scanner that says “Be on the lookout for an old jalopy involved in a holdup at a convenience store downtown…”

We have no way of specifically knowing the future, but here’s how it might really roll out in our example:

As Nostradamus wrote, there is a car coming at us in the right timeframe. It may have lost its muffler because it’s loud and purple. The police scanner was right, too – it’s an old rat rod looking hooptie. As, yes, traveling at a high rate of speed. There’s a police car on its tail now and when pulled over, the windshield turns out to be cracked…

That’s the predictive problem not only of financial speculators in a nutshell, but also people who don’t play long dated financial instruments, in summary form. There are many inputs about the future – which work, depending on the jalopy involved, to one degree, or another.

There are tons of others in the predictive game, too. Astrologers might mention Mars is strong this week. I’m sure Hezbollah and the IDF would agree. Remote viewers will have a different take. What I find totally enthralling is how the whole lot of predictive technologies can be Aggregated to give us a kind of “statistical gradient shading of the Future.

And that gets us to?

Veteran’s Day Weekend

Federal workers (and most local government types) will get Monday November 11th this year – off for Veterans Day. But let’s look at the Big Picture – starting with long dated finance.

The U.S. stock market briefly exceeded the July 16th level in our Aggregate Index work during trading Thursday. But it didn’t close above. Based on the premarket pricing, we were likely to close just under July. But when we look at the chart – as we did in the column Thursday – we can see the markets are at least doing a Double Top.

A couple of ground rules here: This is not financial advice – You’re on your own there (along with your consigliere should you be so lucky). Second is we offer no warranty that our wholistic approach to multi-factor divination of Future works. But, when we queried A.I. about the possible meaning of a Double Top, we clearly understood why making $10,000 bets was so appealing to us:

“A double top is a chart pattern that indicates a potential reversal in a stock’s price trend:

Appearance
A double top is made up of two peaks that are close together in price and separated by a trough. The second peak is usually slightly lower than the first.

When it occurs
A double top often appears after a prolonged uptrend or bullish market.

What it means
A double top suggests that the uptrend may be losing momentum and could reverse. It’s often seen as a signal to sell or short the stock.

When it’s complete
The double top pattern is considered complete when the price drops below the trough between the two peaks.

Other factors
The time between the two peaks and the volume of trading can also be important factors to consider.

While a double top pattern can be a way to make large profits, it’s important to understand the risks involved. To manage risk, traders can analyze potential stop-loss levels and set reasonable return goals. (Generative AI is experimental. For financial advice, consult a professional.)”

Or get a bottle of hooch…

Cycles, Elections, Fed, Taiwan…

There is a HUGE confluence of events coming the week leading into Veterans Day. Here’s what happens:

November 5: the Presidential election
November 6-7: net Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision
That week odds will still be high of a Taiwan blockade by mainland China: The rainy season is from June to September and the driest months are November and December, but winds begin rising from November into winter.
Federal employees will not be around for weekend decision-making, as D.C. has to burn off tons of comp time and this is historically a good weekend for that.
If the Election doesn’t get played “straight” (and it’s seen as fair all around) this is the weekend when mass demonstrations could appear.

Then there’s that damn 55-day problem. The time from market peak-to-Crash of the 1929 cycle. 55-days from yesterday puts us getting whacked in November (financially) either on that Friday (the 9th) or the opening Tuesday (the 12th).

BoJ Holds

The next potential speed bump for Yen-Carry Trade investors will come at the end of October (October 30–31). And there are BoJ meetings on November 6, and ep, even November 11th, though not specifically rates.

Some damn good reporting in BOJ Governor Ueda’s comments at news conference | Reuters. But to us, the focal point was this (translatd) part:

“ON WHETHER BOJ WOULD RULE OUT A RATE HIKE IN OCTOBER “I won’t comment in advance whether we will change monetary policy or not in future policy meetings.” U.S. SOFT LANDING AS MAIN SCENARIO “We still see U.S. soft landing as our main scenario. But U.S. data since early August has been somewhat weak, so risks have heightened somewhat.”

And that’s where “the Future Game” is in the pre-open today. Monday the Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator pops and then Tuesday we get the Case-Shiller/S&P Housing report and that will give critical insight into what’s ahead. All that remains is 6 /2 hours of marketing playing arbitrage of the Future odds on all of the above. We would expect to see a few thrusts higher, but if our Aggregate closes markedly higher then we would likely chicken out of our short positions next week.

Tie to play “Spin the Future!”

For Unlawful Coinal Knowledge?

One of the major forces (and no one likes it when I mention this) that got Bitcoin off the ground was the Silk Road – ex-Swiss crowd that just loves spending “secret money” invisible to regulators. But, here we go again, crypto ain’t that secure: German authorities shut down 47 crypto exchanges over alleged money laundering – Nairametrics

Meanwhile, remembering last summer (about the time of the market top in stocks) BTC was up around $70,000 so we won’t be surprised by a big pop higher in here (until stocks cool). Fueled by stories like Commerzbank Partners with Crypto Finance to Offer Crypto Trading to Corporate Clients, and whatnot.

War and More

Predictably, the IDF after demonstrating total mastery of “the long game” after blowing up the top tier of Hezbollah is doing what? Israel pounds Lebanon’s Hezbollah after device blasts. But, in the meantime, the pressure continues on Israel to back-off Gaza: The World Says That Israel’s Unlawful Occupation of Palestine Must End. However, would you cut a deal with Gazan’s? November Ceasefire in Gaza Collapsed After Hamas Lied About Female Hostages (fdd.org)

Mexico bullshit: So now it’s OUR fault? Mexican president says US shares blame for Sinaloa drug cartel violence. Help me with the logic here, because we have Customers and Open Borders? What’s AMLO telling us? (Will he endorse Trump’s strong border plans? Wouldn’t that be a hoot?)

EU Warmonger Dept. European Parliament: Ukraine must be able to strike legitimate military targets in Russia. But, if the EU cooperates, then can Russia bring in more from its pals, Iran and the NorKs? and did you notice where the EU is spending Russian assets prosecuting war into Russia? EU funds Ukrainian defense industry with €400 million from frozen Russian asset proceeds.

Speaking of Russia: We mentions some months back that we could see Moldova being in Russia’s sights. Stu’s work, too, had some references to Macedonian IIRC. And so, it is a little concerning that Russia is already telling aware trackers what will happen if Ukraine goes for the “long bomb” in Russia: Germany Warns Moldova Could Be Next Target if Ukraine Falls – Novinite.com – Sofia News Agency. Now, suddenly, a Russia thrust up into the underbelly of NATO lands comes into focus. Moldova would lead to Macedonia… All fits into how kinetic politics works – f=ma – kinds of reactions.

Idiots of the Home Front

Can’t trust the polls, yet. Harris Had Stronger Debate, Polls Find, but the Race Remains Deadlocked. And the woman who voted to tax service worker tips is somehow surprised that…Harris Can’t Even Get a Union Endorsement. Voter memories are terrible things.

Lawyering up: Secret Service Agents from Butler Rally Hire Lawyers—Including a Notorious Anti-Trumper.

But, Trump is still very much at risk: Exclusive: Rep. Matt Gaetz Claims There Are 5 Known Assassination Teams in U.S. (breitbart.com)

Living in the Land of Equality? Um… Teachers Told to Pass Every Migrant Student Even If They Know Nothing – Allah’s Willing Executioners. Chicago continues on our “cities to avoid list.”

And as long as we’re on point: Elon Musk on X: “Wow” / X (“Former Chief BP Agent Aaron Heitke was ordered by Biden-Harris to cover up the disaster at the border: “Tell me you aren’t surprised…”