Really, really bad, to answer the rhetorical question.
I won’t call it a “breakthrough” but we have been using our Ebbinghaus-Ure Model to good effect with the market decline gathering speed now. Last week, I was warning you (go ahead and look at the chart) that a “convergence of averages” can sometimes spell Big Change. And today, just 5-days on, here’s the train wreck behind the topping-convergence I was yammering about:
Well, as you can see, it’s not a pretty picture, is it? The worst of it is that the “convergence” has been of sufficiency to almost demand more downside over the coming couple of weeks. That’s because the lagging averages need to “space out” from the pack a bit more. And that’s actually a good mwetaphor for how humans “think” – at least are supposed to think.
Put on – if you will, now – this other pair of “economic glasses” I wear from time-to-time. These glasses take in the whole of global economics with the understanding that on any particular day there is only so much money in the world. Like a balloon squished in a clenched fist, it will pop out somewhere. Asia was very weak overnight, for example.
But this pressure to decline is also now impacting the U.S. markets. Which (in aggregate) have just dropped down below the 85-day moving average.
I have a number of friends who are (brilliant) financial engineers who insist that even though there is risk investing in anything, there are enough checks and balances in place to keep the financial tops all spinning.
Well, except there aren’t.
Because of a process called “re-hypothecation.”
“Rehypothecation is a practice whereby banks and brokers use, for their own purposes, assets that have been posted as collateral by their clients. Clients who permit rehypothecation of their collateral may be compensated either through a lower cost of borrowing or a rebate on fees.”
In practical terms, FDIC is therefore now a joke. Because in the past, depositors were first in line when a bank got in over its head. Now, however, deposits are treated more like a common asset and so, as a result, the wise investor is forced into a devilish decision: How can you exit the “financial con” (and remember for all the hype, there’s not any transactional equivalent for groceries – yet. Do you put some portion of your Assets in Banks, expecting that when Collapse Comes, and the wings fall off these high-flying pigs of markets, that a Cyprus-like bail-in will protect your first $100,000?
Yeah – good luck with that.
Yes, we still keep some funds in a bank – that’s the transactional nature of modern Life. Can’t live with it (morally) but can’t live without it, too. Suckish position to be in, honestly.
What you can do is move to a state with the strongest ratio of homestead protections. Texas, for example, has provisions that allow 100 percent of equity to be protected.
A Lesson in Financial Acuity
We don’t talk much about the Great States in America, where you can plan for a long life and not stay up all night worried about long-term asset protection. But a good starting point would be to read the article Homestead Exemptions by U.S. State and Territory.
As you read this, however, be aware of “the con.” And it goes like this. the “top tout” among financial planners is typically a state like California. Where the present homesteading limits run $300-$600-thousand.
What most people don’t get (because they are “followers of the herd”) is that with a sudden huge inflation, even $600,000 ain’t much if the typical home (in the envisioned hyperinflating world) soars to $10-million bucks. Sucks in such case.
On the other hand, as you go through that list, look for states with the word “Unlimited” in the caps column. Where you will find Texas, Oklahoma, and other tax gems. Then back-out states with a state income tax and pretty soon, choices become obvious.
I’ve been going to mention this to my pal, the Major, because he and the dr/mrs are thinking about ever-aftering in Colorado. And except for the cattle mutilations around Weston, that whole area adjacent to Trinidad, Colorado is gorgeous. We have friends with a genuine castle up there, but we told you that and showed me standing inside the fireplace in the Great Room, years ago. (flashback passed).
Anyway, the homesteading exemption in Colorado is $350,000 whereas in Washington (which except for our offspring with the golden handcuffs on) haven’t left that Marxist enclave. Where the homestead exemption is a paltry $125,000 or the prior tax year’s median home value, whichever is greater. Lag times in hyperinflations can kill.
Ah, but enough of this pre-Depression discussion. Let’s see how nVidia scores tomorrow and take it from there.
People still haven’t even started to realize the power of AI. It’s going to be like mechanization and Henry Ford on steroids, get it? In other words, anyone in Law School will likely be replaced by AI withing 10-years and maybe half that time. You can already do really good legal work with nothing more than an AI account and who you want to go after. Plus, if you save every single text, email, and contact, AI can do dandy work, too.
All depends if you are living ahead of the future or behind it. Sorry if you’re not in the ahead of it crowd.
Tuesday Tidbits
EU Bureaucratic pricks are still in expansionist monarchy mode: Appalling listening to the bullshit from the EU meetings. They have had three years to work on a Ukraine deal (not getting jack-shit done) and then dare to get pissy about us waning a better deal? US sides with Russia, refusing to support Ukraine at UN is what Ukraine backers hawk. But realistically (evenly headlined) it’s really UN Security Council adopts neutral US stance on war in Ukraine. I mean ignoring the old-gaurd at State that poured $5-6 Billion into tossing a legally elect4ed democratic government out to the short pianist could diktat. Such horse crap. But here you have it, Europe on the march to wider war: Ukraine Scores Diplomatic Win With Passage Of Resolutions At UN. Which is yet-another example of how mobs should never run things.
In case you forgot: A billion years back the John Birch Society got anti-UN exactly right. One of the first public activities of the society was a “Get US Out!” (of membership in the UN) campaign, which claimed in 1959 that the “Real nature of [the] UN is to build a One World Government” – which has proven eerily prescience while the Marxists march on toward thieving America for their proletariat sham…
Oh, Look! Hamas is feeling bad. Hamas Official Expresses Reservations About Oct. 7 Attack on Israel – The New York Times. We figure this is to keep Israel hoping for more hostage releases which have been totally unequal. Would Moshe have put up with this, as foreign affairs minister, during Entebbe? Um…think, now, it ain’t that hard… (Maybe you don’t know any Mossad…)
Pope needs some business schooling, maybe? Oh yeah – the parts on delegating perhaps? Pope Francis remains in critical condition, but has resumed work. Surely he know “Take care of yourself so you can take care of others?”
Trump Hate Resurgence. OK, so we get a “managed drooler” who should have been Article 25’d (except that would have put Kamala in charge, a different nightmare) which the lying liberal media gave a free pass to while the invasion of America was on. NOW, though, hints at aging issues for Trump? Trump’s BRUISED hand spotted after he & Macron rekindle unlikely bromance with at least 3 handshake jousts – so who won? Gimme a break, sheesh.
Texas invasion cleanup continues: Deportation Operations Launched In Colony Ridge ‘Targeting Criminals And Illegal Immigrants’. More work to be done, though: 7X Deported Suspected MS-13 Gang Member Arrested for Murder in East Texas Migrant Colony.
Which in turn leads to this (barf bag ready?) Natalie Winters on X: “The judge blocking Trump’s mass deportations has family members working for open borders NGOs. How is this legal?
Which explains, we think, why dems are sinking: Press Release: February 2025 – Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll
Around the Ranch: 90-minute Columns
Now that I’m 76 Ii was going to cut back on the amount of work I’ve been doing. But, strangely, still have plenty of energy and the real focus has turned into “better time management.”
So, I figure if I begin writing about 6:15 AM, the whole column (like this one) can flip out of the fingers in 90-minutes if I don’t get distracted on research tangents. So, that’s where I’m going. Better time management and a second pomodoro timer.
That way, I will still be able to pick up the (7:30 AM Central) press releases from the financial outfits (like GDP on Thursday of this week) run a few calculations (it impacts velocity of money at M2, for example) and still have time to make an intelligent remark, or two.
So, we will try that for a while, But the deep brain work will move more and more to the Peoplenomics reports where tomorrow we explore “Europe’s Last Stant” – which won’t be fun, but unless they can put their regional egos in check, history is quite clear on where the present expansionism leads.
Back in a few with the Housing numbers as a second post.
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
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