That gets to be an interesting question, really. Yes we have some new data, but can a (more or less) local jobs picture turn a world in decline?
Before we get into the U.S. picture, therefore, a word about Elsewhere. In Asia, the Japanese Nikkei was down almost 400-points and shade over one percent. Hong Kong and Australia were up a bit, but some of that money going into Australia may have been “flight to safety” money. Europe was a mixed bag early with France and the Useless Kingdom down a tad but the Germans were rallying somewhat.
Also, in our Aggregate Index work – this snapshot was taken before any of the numbers hit – it looked like we had started (predictably if your read Peoplenomics) around the 85-day moving average. Which we like because it feels like a dollar-weighted midpoint between the 50 DMA and 200 DMA that drives a lot of “mechanical” purchasing on Wall St.
Two Hits of Job Data
Before the numbers today, the CME Fed Watch Tool – which you can look at here, later on to see how the jobs flow impacted things – when the rate decision comes September 18 (13-days from now) – was running 43 percent expecting a rate decrease.
Our thinking is a little more hard-nosed. Jerome Powell has been saying “No cut until 2 percent” so that if he does lower rates, it will be seen (variously) as him trying to reprise Pinocchio, or as trying to ensure Kamala Harris takes over from Slow. The ACTUAL problem is that rates are a floating back-alley craps game. And Japan is bound to raise – again – and that will send markets into a panic. Does Powell do the responsible thing (hold) or does he pander to the Big Money crowd which is looking for rate relief for its bonus (bone-us) numbers?
With all this in mid-swirl, we have two sets of data out. The first is the ADP Jobs report which will give some idea on hiring. Here’s how it went:
ROSELAND, N.J. – September 5, 2024 – Private sector employment increased by 99,000 jobs in August and annual pay was up 4.8 percent year-over-year, according to the August ADP® National Employment
Report.
Right behind ADP there’s the Job Cuts report from Challenger:
“Job Cuts Announced by US-Based Companies Surge in August 2024; Hiring Falls to Lowest YTD Since Challenger Began Tracking in 2005
U.S.-based employers announced 75,891 cuts in August, a 193% increase from the 25,885 cuts announced one month prior. It is up 1% from the 75,151 cuts announced in the same month in 2023, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
For the year, companies have announced 536,421 job cuts, down 3.7% from 557,057 announced through August of last year. Excluding the 115,762 job cuts announced in August of 2020, last month was the highest August total since 2009, when 76,456 layoffs were recorded.
After cuts, the next stop in our unemployment “pipeline” is the weekly U.I. filings report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
If you’re looking for tea leaves, this is a god-awful mess. My personal trading indicators vaguely suggest we could rally into the close tomorrow. But, with the Economic Fractalist looking for a low soon, we might consider a short over the weekend. Like the old joke goes, “I sure picked a hell of a time to stop drinking…” His discussion in There Are Two identifiable October 2023 Interpolated First and Second Weekly and Daily: x/2-2.5x Fractal series. 5 August 2024 represented the first series low: 8 October 2024 is the second series Global Equity Crash Low | The Economic Fractalist may have you reconsidering the red-eye.
Also, among the “colleague sites” I hope you’ve taken the time with G.A. Stewart’s piece on “Collapse and Revolution.”
The only really useful ideas we can add are two-fold.
First, there is a non-zero chance (in fact, reader D’Lynn has mentioned it) of a nuke being used before month-end. SHOULD this come to pass, it can screw up financial markets (think force majeure clauses triggering) and we could have a long-term financial market closure. Depending on where, of course. But remember in our contingency thinking, there is the possibility of nuclear war to prevent the U.S. election, provide for Israel smashing Iran and Russia getting in NATO’s face. This all collects into a decision on our part to only trade options which are subject to “next day settlement.” With stocks, it’s typically three days, and God forbid you have a weekend in the mix. Just like Agile means something in software, it means something in money movement, too.
That is to say we are not “betting on nukes getting used” but we have three Geiger counters, have reread Kearney, and have plastic sheeting and duct tape. And by the end of this weekend, our IBC tote full of potable water will be cycled and sealed.
In fact, I would mention this morning’s column is being written on a new 55″ QLED UHD screen, though there’s some risk of me being taken as progressively more paranoid. Maybe a bit…
Sleeplessness Inducers
On the other hand…
We have mentioned many times that if one of the powerplants in the Ukraine war were to meltdown and send radioactivity into Russia, that would likely constitute West/NATO/Ukraine “first use” of a nuke. We went to bed last night studying UN Nuclear Watchdog Warns Conditions ‘Very Fragile’ at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Power Plant | NTD.
Until recent coverage, it seems like “Old George, paranoid as always.” But in the last few days and in Why is Russia changing its nuclear doctrine amid the Ukraine war? | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera, we notice that yes, a powerplant being deliberately melted down would qualify:
“Under the doctrine, Russia can use nuclear weapons in “response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies”.
For now, in the other threat pile, Iran has chilled a bit while IAEA Chief Eager to Interact with Iran’s New Admin. While this will be cast by many as “good news” it will not be in Tel Aviv. Because people there understand that Iran is merely talking while they keep the enrichment program going and producing fissionable materials.
Ham Radio Diversionary Note: While checking to see if China was acting up opposite Taiwan overnight, we stumbled on this curious headline which all ham radio operators will understand: Typhoon Yagi causes flooding in Tainan. Hard deciding which (cheap, tech) one-liner to use: “Does this mean we’re going to have a Typhoon HyGain or Telerex?” Or “How many dB down were the sidelobes of precip?” Bad tech puns are “logged periodically…” (groans)
Missing Gomorrah II
I’ve been amazed with how the data fills in around the odd remark now and then: Watch: Moment asteroid lights up night sky in Philippines (bbc.com)
One other “Look, Up in the sky!” reader: Belief in alien visits to Earth is spiraling out of control – here’s why that’s so dangerous. Loss of central control (which we read as taxing authority) which was laid out in (was it 1963?) in Report from Iron Mountain (on the accessibility and desirability of Peace). Don’t mind old George. He’s in the rocking chair, still waiting to collect that Peace Dividend from the fall of the Soviet empire. One villain falls and the new statues go right back in their place. Surprised?
Pieces
Everything you worried about in elections: Kash Patel Reveals How States Are Rigging Elections Using Illegal Immigrants.
Sayanora $57,000? Bitcoin prices fall below $57K amid rough September start.
Did you see the memo? Ours must have gotten lost: REJOICE – IT’S OVER – CLIMATE ALARMISM HAS BEEN DEBUNKED – The Burning Platform.
Around the Ranch: Annual Checkup Day
I’ll let you know tomorrow if I’m still alive. Up all-night studying for my blood tests. (rimshot)
Honestly, a little off the pace today – breaking in a new keyboard and it’s not ready for hypersonic testing yet.
Supposed to rain today. But we were supposed to have small government, secure borders, and minimal foreign entanglements, too. Don’t know who to believe anymore.
Oh? yeah…no one.
Write when you get rich,
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