Well, here we are: Another Monday. And for this one, I thought it would be useful to rethink what people really follow news for.
On the surface, the idea is that we all want to be “informed.” But, if that means keeping up with the cackle princess and the skirt chaser, no thanks. The whole news “industry” has been less about what really matters in people’s lives and instead has become “The Click and Eyeball Jungle.” “News” just isn’t fitting most of the time.
Oh, I’m not the only one with concerns: Newsroom decay is how ‘democracy decomposes’. Yeah, like we hadn’t noticed.
Future-Ready
Whether you’re a Trump or Harris fan doesn’t matter much (if at all) at this late stage. As soon as you made your mind up – who to vote for – the election and everything related to it – became “yesterday’s news.” You know your course of action, the outcome (no matter who “wins”) will be contentious, so unless you are a Supreme Court justice who might have to rule on (obvious) questions (like illegals voting), then the election could have been held this weekend.
While Elections don’t matter (once you’ve “decided”) there are certain exogenous forces that blow life around. Hurricanes and whatnot. While we are still mighty suspicious of how SOCOM and CENTCOM’s base was at the center of recent weather problems, our concern is with people still in the dark today: Duke Energy working overtime to restore nearly 400,000 still without power.
Are there more storms ahead? This is where we get into Futuring. Which is another word for “forecasting.”
That yellow “X” off the west coast of Africa is likely not far enough north to make it into the Caribbean (for now). Based on this Season so far (which is about over) the odds are good this one will veer north and that could be the end of the season. November 30 is the normal end date, but not a lot of “trouble lined up” just now.
Militarization of FEMA
…looms on our radar. We can see now pretty clearly how the Hegelian Dialectic will be used to transition FEMA into a domestic military and thus skirt Posse Comitatus: That plan would be to “make up a few incidents” and then arm federal responders. Right on cue, here comes Armed Militia ‘Hunting FEMA’ Causes Hurricane Responders to Evacuate—Report – Newsweek.
In case you missed it over the weekend, the precursors are already in play in adjacent legal territory as Ron Wyden on X: “This bill represents one of the most dramatic and terrifying expansions of government surveillance authority in history. I will do everything in my power to stop it from passing in the Senate.” / X
And the fear factor folks are out with stories the pre-pimp the idea of federal troops on American soil: 18M people may try to seize power. Are we prepared to stop them? Also on point is an article from last week When Sheriffs Say Their Rule Is Law.
What we are seeing – in the wake of the “double-canes” is a hard attack on existing rules concerning the use (and roles) of the military and whether enough PR can be ginned up to drive America (even further) into the China (internal military police state) model.
Meanwhile, Back at the Weather Center
What matters – for news consumers looking into the face of uncertainty is (if I remember right) the gist of an A.P.-Magid research study I read in about 1977. The #1 interest people have is self-preservation and comfort. Which means weather stories. And that was followed by what has come to be known as “health, heart, and pocketbook.” Oh, and when all other factors are equal, the tie-breaker is “Lead Local!” (Or, “If it bleeds it leads…”)
In keeping with people’s general interest in weather, the main highlight of today in the national maps is the first string of (purple) freeze warnings as cold air (finally) moves down from Canada.
The cold front will push its way south this week so that by Wednesday, our “deep in the heart of” will be seeing a daytime high of only 70-ish and lows into the 40s. Doesn’t seem too bad, except that while I was outside working on projects Sunday it was 95 F. We may be ending the 90s for the year and that is a big deal. Last call for winter gardens.
Financial Futurings
Next, we get to the pocketbook part. This is Options week. And last month on Options Friday, our Aggregate Index closed at 48,317.32. Friday our Aggregate closed even higher – at 49,313.18. Which is, frankly, somewhat remarkable. Normally annual highs come in mid summer or out into Labor Day. The 1929 annual high, for example, came September 3, 1929.
This hints at a major concern – namely we worry the Election (and the hysterical bullshit stories leading into it) has the potential to turn into a HUGE “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” event. And you can sense it among people who are (silly enough to be) partisans.
Notwithstanding, absent something out of Left Field on the War front, a one thousand point collapse over the next five days seems unlikely. We would probably rate the odds of a Record October Option Week close to 95 percent. But, as you’ll remember from statistics class, it’s the confidence interval on such outlooks that can (financially) kill.
If you did forget, “A confidence interval is a range of values that indicates the likelihood that a population parameter will fall within a certain set of values. It’s a way to describe the uncertainty around an estimate and how precise a measurement is.” We’re pretty confident but that’s not the same as certain.
The Future is Visiting
- Today a number of regional Fed chiefs will be on the “rubber chicken circuit.” Of all of them, probably Neil Kashkari’s remarks may be useful.
- Tomorrow, the NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing numbers land, but again – blue state and the Fed campaign contribution (in kind, via an undeserved half-point rate cut) will not go on the rocks.
- Wednesday import-export prices (stock up on the NoDoz!).
- Thursday we finally get something useful (Retail Sales) but honestly, I don’t see people slowing down consumption, so the Big Economic Flywheel will keep spinning for another month.
- Friday serves up Housing Starts, but with maybe as many as a million homes damaged from Helene-Milton, we’re just guessing that “building permits” may be up a little more than usual, though it could take another month or two to show. We have to remember stats lag reality.
CRE Torpedoes and Mines
Although we have slurred the Fed’s rate-cut (giveaway to the rich), there may be an “off books reason” for it. Which you have to see between the lines in commercial real estate stories. Like this in the L.A. Times this morning: Craig Coan, Jeremy Cramer, Kirk Malmrose and Mal Serure Share Insights on the Real Estate Industry.
I tend to discount what anyone in real estate says about the R.E. market (especially on the commercial side) by perhaps 25 percent. But an intriguing question is how much (if any) of the Fed drop was driven by fears that if they didn’t do that, the cost of refi’s in commercial real estate (CRE) could crater the economy in early 2025. (When half the country will be in a pissy (or worse) mood anyway because of the election. Have to think about that.
WW III Surprise Week?
Now we’re down to the nubbins of the week. As it’s time to play Three War Monte. Welding goggles in hand?
Let’s start with Israel versus (Lebanon, Palestinians, Iran, and Syria). Let’s take it north-to-south:
- Syria is getting pressured on the north as Half a million naturalized foreigners, primarily Syrians, risk losing their Turkish citizenship. Turkey (unlike the U.S.) has actual borders and no, doesn’t hand out food, rent, cellphones, and bennies like we do.
- Antony Blinken (and Nod, Biden) have failed to explain why the U.S. is funding both sides of the Lebanon war with Israel, which is clear reading (back to back, please) US ‘training & equipping’ Lebanese Army is worst kind of déjà vu | Responsible Statecraft and then Israeli Minister Denounces UN Peacekeepers in Lebanon as Fighting Rages (aawsat.com). Arms to both sides? See why the Death Industries in ‘Merica are doing so well?
- Gaza? Sure: Dozens Killed as Israeli Tanks Deepen Their Push into the Northern Gaza Strip. And so much for the Biden-Harris pitch to Palestinians for their votes, huh?
On the Iran-Israel front, the PR departments are running hard pushing stories like What Is THAAD? US Deploys State-of-the-Art Air Defense Battery to Israel – Newsweek.. What is NOT being discussed is what will Israel strike in Iran as retaliation over recent missile launches. The longer we don’t see action, our “spidey senses” keep ratcheting up fears they will go after Iran’s nuclear program and that would likely be with a couple of nukes. Stories like Israel can only delay, not stop, Iran nuclear programmer, being considered. Plus the reports from last week that Iran could have up to 3-5 crude nukes ready to go in a week.
We’re just waiting for Israel’s shot from the free throw line, if you will.
Russia Fears?
Putin is likely to be able to focus on the BRICS meetings coming up. Because of additional military sources on the way: Zelenskyy: It is no longer about supplying weapons, it is about sending people from North Korea. (Ure hints: This is how World Wars work, get it?)
Meanwhile, the EU is trtying to dump more money into the fray – and there’s talk Joe Biden will visit Germany next week. For now, Aid to Ukraine – EU may create new fund to override Hungary’s veto of Ukraine war funding.
And before we wrap up this part, would I be alarmist pointing out that China Launches Sea and Air Drills Around Taiwan and they still have plans to reunify?
Or, that China would be my #1 suspect behind the story this weekend about how Mystery Drones Swarmed a U.S. Military Base for 17 Days. The Pentagon Is Stumped. – WSJ
At the Ranch: Waiting on Hardware
Got the first third of the railing around the new deck done. Then realized I needed more hardware. (Thought I had enough but no….) That should arrive today. But, in the meantime, prioritized prepping plans (this week’s Peoplenomics report) has to be written.
The new stairs work just fine – thanks.
And the new “high visibility for old people” keyboard in the office seems to make the same number of mistakes as all other keyboards I’ve owned.
Ham Radio: With recent Sun activity, ham, radio was up and down over the weekend. Still, managed a half-dozen Morse code (CW) contacts with the Pennsylvania QSO party Sunday.
I keep having a debate with myself: When the sun’s out, ~7 kW of solar makes a hell of an RF racket on 20 and 15 meters. The electrical engineering genes kicked in with a ton of ideas to try. But the hard-ass task manager genes keep telling me “You got more important shit to do than piss time down the radio rat hole, so get back on the project list…”
That arguement rattles on in my head as I’m about to hit “publish” today. For now, I asked the Task Manager “Would it be OK if I took a break for some chow?”
“OK, but not more than a half-hour. Then get your ass back to work…”
I better scoot before he changes his mind.
“Hey! Don’t talk about me. I’m Ure problem.”
Write when you get rich, or the meds kick in…
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