The speculation regarding the shooting of UnitedHealthCare CEO Brian Thompson continues to run rampant. While this can be interesting, the truth is that the on-the-ground investigation will be far more prosaic than glamorous. For today’s detectives, serious crime investigation marries grinding “shoe leather” work to data-driven digital forensics. It can be a daunting amount of information.
As such, let’s look at some hard data points that are likely jumping-off points for investigators who have to play the percentages (and some that are not):
1. ‘Hitmen for hire,’ in the commonly perceived sense, don’t really exist
The idea that someone off the street can walk into a social club or call-a-guy-who-knows-a-guy who kills for a living is essentially a myth – I cannot recall one in my experience. That said, murders-for-hire do exist (i.e, an associate who is not a “professional” is willing to hire on).
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But the speculation as to whether the shooter was a “professional” or not is beside the point – the police don’t care. What they care about now are hard data points that can identify the shooter. The professional status of the killer is, at best, a flourish if the case reaches trial.
2. The timeline is key
Currently – and this is unsurprising – the tip line regarding the case is blowing up. But what detectives are most focused on are the indicators they can depend on, like: How did the shooter know that Thompson would show up for an 8:00 a.m. conference at 6:40 a.m.? Did the shooter have some access to Thompson’s schedule or movements?
Recall that the shooter apparently “posted up” near the shooting location just minutes before the shooting. Was there an accomplice surveilling Thompson as he left his nearby hotel? Is that who the shooter was on the phone with, in the still photo NYPD released?
And further to that question…
3. How did the shooter so instantly recognize Thompson?
The shooter was along the building line across the street when Thompson came up the block. Video shows the shooter apparently recognizing Thompson from what must be at least 60 feet, in twilight, early-morning conditions. Again: How did he know Thompson was coming?
Thompson was of a fairly commonplace build and appearance. How was he so sure this was his intended target? Particularly since he approaches Thompson from behind? It doesn’t seem likely that this could be done from a reference photo.
One thing we can conclude: Thompson was the target – the messages on the shell casings left at the scene, whether a false flag or not, confirm this.
4. Digital data will be key
The police reportedly recovered a phone in the alleyway “cut-through” that the shooter fled through from West 54th to West 55th Street. Was the shooter really that careless? If he was – and he did indeed make the phone call indicated by the still photo – this is crucial information.
Legal processes will allow for search warrants to obtain the digital information to indicate who that call was to and the number it originated from (even if it was a disposable phone). While that may not lead to the shooter’s name, it could lead to all his activity on the burner phone – and to associates of the shooter who will almost certainly reveal his identity, either through interviews or simple context.
Additionally, the shooter reportedly took an Uber at least once during his 10-day stay in the city. Uber accounts link to credit cards. Did he use his actual card? Even if he used a stolen card, if he took other Uber trips, his pattern can be ascertained.
And as the shooter appears to have his flight path well-planned out, there is also the likelihood that he had previously walked that route. Is there video of him doing that before the shooting? Was his phone on during those walks?
5. Facial recognition is indeed important
At this writing, with good face images of the shooter out there, many observers express frustration that he (if indeed the shooter is male) has not been at least identified. But: he may well have been, and the police have made the determination that they are more likely to apprehend him without revealing that they know his identity and/or likely whereabouts. This is especially true if they believe he has accomplices.
The use of facial recognition software has likely already been important, as clear facial photos such as those reportedly obtained from the youth hostel may well have led to the discovery of the Greyhound bus to get to New York City.
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There are thousands of cameras that police facial recognition technology has access to, and there are many in-and-around midtown’s Port Authority (the location where buses to New York generally arrive to and depart from). Use of facial recognition technology could well lead to software matching the shooter to a public-facing social media or government account.
6. Traditional forensics are important – but perhaps less important just now
While fingerprints are great evidence, if the shooter is not already in the system, they will only function here as confirmation (as in, for example, the Jose Ibarra conviction re: Laken Riley).
The same goes for DNA. While great evidence at-trial, if the killer’s profile is not already in the CODIS system (the Combined DNA Index System), collected DNA may not help. But recall that in the Idaho case, familial DNA reportedly led to a lead to a family member of the suspect, Bryan Kohberger. If the shooter has a relative in one of the commercial DNA databases, this could lead to him. But it will take time.
And as the shooter appears to have his flight path well-planned out, there is also the likelihood that he had previously walked that route. Is there video of him doing that before the shooting? Was his phone on during those walks?
There are, of course, many other avenues the police are pursuing – reported threats to Thompson, those protesting against UnitedHealthCare, the unusual gun, the litigation Thompson was reportedly involved in, etc. But in the end, hard-and-fixed jumping off points are the “leads” most important to investigators now.
And what those of us who opine on this crime should always recall: whatever the outcome, we are discussing the loss of a man’s life – a man with a family – to a cold-blooded murderer. That’s the most important fact underlying the entire case.
The good news: it is almost impossible to get away with this sort of thing now, especially in midtown Manhattan. The NYPD will get this perpetrator – a simple matter of time.
PAUL MAURO
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