Boom Times Ahead Fade – Next Book Plans

The Road to War is now rolling over into Electric Avenue with a potentially shocking escalation looming as the Ukraine War on Russia is – in market terms – sub-dividing.

I better explain that concept a bit.

The runaway rally of the global markets should – under many concepts of valuation – have peaked several times over.  Long-haul investors – like Warren Buffett see it clear as day and have pulled billions off the table. But let’s have a look at how this “subdividing” takes place.

As you know, we look at the market as a whole cloth.  At one point in an economic cycle, conservative stocks (food and necessaries) dominate.  While at another, the current cycle’s “Coming to Save Us” – which is A.I. in this run – roll to the fore.

Our odd way of analyzing markets – which aims to take the silliness off the table – is to combine equal dollars in each of three sub-markets to come up with an approximation of total money in play at all times.  I call this the Aggregate Index.  Actually, there are two indices.  A U.S. market and the tightly parallel Global index.

I won’t say which of the “financial” networks had the stupidest headline of several years on Thursday, but it went to the idea that the market rally – clearly a manipulation so the rich can exit before War – was due to “Investors rolling out of A.I.”  Logically, it doesn’t hold water. Because the Aggregate Index didn’t go to a new high.  Instead – through the close Thursday – we saw the markets as continuing a “bounce of a trend channel.”

While we could get interested down the road (perhaps) facts are facts.  The U.S. debt is now (according to Truth in Accounting) in the vicinity of $36.2 trillion – the publicly admitted debt.  While the real, actual is more than $157 trillion because of baked-in interest that can never be forgiven. See here for the current numbers.  The Official US Gov numbers lag a bit (but what’s a third of a trillion between friends, right?) Debt to the Penny | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data.

So let’s consider the market’s “field position” when the game was called last night.

We will save the charts of the Global (and how the U.S. is doing relatively speaking) for tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report.  For now, let’s focus on what we have as a possible (“You light up my life“) future.

Let’s assume Ralph N. Elliott was pretty smart and that markets move in semi-predictable “waves” of investor sentiment.  There are impulsive waves – where investors sort of lock-in with one-another and run off in one direction. Up or down doesn’t matter.  What matters is the “lock.”  We call such waves impulsive. Oftentimes, these are five-wave affairs.

When the market runs up, eventually the effects of the bubbly wears off.  When it reversed – upon too many investors sobering up – the course of trading reverses into what’s again (often) a three-wave reversal.

The proportions are what matter next.  When you get a big wave 1 down, the reversal from the locked herd is often 50 percent.  Which we are near as this week ends.

Here’s how the Aggregate was closing through yesterday for the past several days from the all-time high hit Veterans Day.

Since we can see the high ( 51388.35) and the subsequent low – which we will hypothecate as the low of minor 1 down from a possible ATH –  was 50051.25.

A bit of simple math suggests (on a daily closing basis of the U.S. Aggregate) that we declined (in minor 1) a total of 1,337.1 points.

Two closing numbers look attractive to us in here (remember, none of this is financial advice – I’m just an old “kook in the woods”, right? ).  The first would be a 50 percent “bounce for a minor 2” OR a (Fibonacci) 0.618 bounce.  So for the first the bound would add 668.55 to the low while a Fibo bounce (as they are called) would add 826.33.

Now it gets to be fun: we take the 50,051.25 and add 50 percent of the decline back in, which would mean a close around 50,719.80.  Given the Aggregate close Thursday was what?

We take it that a 50 percent minor Wave 2 could be done. In my work, when the target and the actual are within six one-thousandths of one percent, we will call it good.  So this means that the next news headlines that come along (assuming 50 percent in “our number” to put it in craps table terms – or the point ) THEN we should pull in a few more suckers early and then close slightly lower.  Followed by Big Scary News (likely over the weekend or in the Monday pre-open) and then Minor 3 Down ought to begin.

Since I hold oodles of “just out of the money long-term put options for Q2 2025 this begins to act suspiciously like a Big Cash Machine.

EXCEPT!  *(And this is why I tell you this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!) there is a chance that we could rally at the close today and work up to the next-higher inflection point – the Fibo bounce – in which case the market ought to rise a tiny bit more at today’s close to about 50,877.58.

Which leaves the door open for what, another  154.72 points higher at the close today (or even Monday).

Still, you get the idea: markets are semi-predictable within bounds and guesses need to be hedged just a certain way that’s a big different than the Gaussian “normal” distribution.  Probably because us humans ain’t quite normal.  But enough of this damn “pencil work.”  Our consigliere will be in Sunday night for a week to 10-days; longer if the nukes fly.

3DD Planning Focus

We keep getting jingles (as in bells) from several directions about the possibility of the 3DD – Three Days of Darkness.  Which, we’re careful to say is speculative, would be a good analogy for a global Net Hard Down. Comes from seers and prognosticators.

Whether the current escalation of missile use against Russia will be allowed to continue remains an area ripe with speculation.  In the past few days, since the U.S. and Britain OK’d the use of their weapons (which everyone knows has some local talent helping the Ukrainians to fire) Russia has likely been back at there targeting boards.

Meanwhile, Slow Joe is putting you deeper in hock: Biden Sends Another $275 Million to Ukraine Before Trump Takes Office.  Oh, and he’s forgiving more than $4 billion in debts owed by Ukraine to US!

And we found this Korean take on neocons very interesting: A frightening list of neocons to be removed (KOR).

Also in War-ish developments: Iran News: IAEA Board Condemns Tehran Amid U.S. and EU Criticism of Escalating Nuclear Activities. Which, with a couple of bucks, will get you coffee at Denny’s.  And just to underscore how meaningless the IAEA rap is: Iran announces new ‘advanced centrifuges’ after IAEA sanctions.

Trump’s HR Roulette

While the liberal sites do their thing in stories like 5 things you need to know about Pam Bondi – POLITICO, we think there is a 6th -take a look at her picture and figure it out.  Any minute, we expect the left to launch into apoplexy over not enough POC so far…

With Gaetz gone, other appointments are likely to move along except that the RINOs are scared to death their Deep State will be disrupted: This Is How RINO Senator Susan Collins Plans to Obstruct Trump Health Appointments..

All nicely summed at DogeDesigner on X: “Media’s New Fear.

And then we have the “dummies who dummy up” problem: FBI Dir. Wray and DHS Secretary Mayorkas Refuse to Testify Publicly.  Kinda of hard for a do-nothing congress to claim to be in session, isn’t it, when this kind of slop’s going down?

Newscellaneous

Like accounting nightmares (and greasy-haired governors)?  ‘The Golden State Is eating Its Golden Geese’ California Defaults on Loan: Businesses Stuck With The Tab – Twitchy

California Crazies Dept. 2: California Judge Gives Mom the Green Light to Castrate 12-Year-Old Against Father’s Wishes.  Of course, many dads already know that in “Divorcing for Dollars” the dad is only useful for check-writing.

Still $25 million overpaid as we see it, but: MSNBC Deals Humiliating $5M Pay Cut to Rachel Maddow.  (Our performance reviews must be a lot tougher, huh?)

While the next pandemic isn’t due until the end of Feb or maybe March of ’25, the pre-sell could already be starting: Why the latest bird flu case has experts worried about a potential pandemic.  No shots again, thanks.  We will simply avoid contact with others.  (Wal-Mart is now delivering groceries to our area even in the Outback, so this could be a “Leave the food and leave” deal for us.)

Bud Lite seems committed to pissing everyone off: Bud Light has released a commercial mocking the woke culture…  Which makes no sense to us: Why would any marketer tie their product’s future to anything other than inherent brand quality?  Makes no sense to us at all. It’s like Amazon’s overboarding on DEI messaging for a while and other big companies, too. We don’t buy shares in companies that get out of their product lane and into social revisionism, thanks. Product first, shareholders second and the devil take the rest, please. DEI is at its core discriminatory and we hold that absolute equality is what America needs to get back to.  Meritocracy please.

Around the Ranch: Next Book Plans

With Amazon getting my latest book (The Doctor Between Your Ears: Practicing Practical Longevity) online (buy here), the inevitable question comes up “What will the next book be?”

Been thinking about Downsizing a lot. First, because we have done it and second because it’s one of the sure-fire ways to “de-fang” Big government.  while I admire Elon and Vivek (the DOGE brothers) the simplest way to rein-in government is to cut of it’s financial nuts.  Make less money. Use the tax code, and don’t invest in fads and fashion.

The first book I wrote – circa 2001 – was “How to Live on $10,000 a year, or less.”  Which can still be found on line and it’s 4-editions better.

But $10,000 isn’t going to work today, unless you add the weasel-phrase “Per Person” and cover two people.   Or, you’d figure out inflation on $10,000 since 2001 and title the book “Downsizing: Living on and inflation-adjusted $17,758.56 per year.”

There is a very serious reason for serializing this next book on Peoplenomics: because Social Security benefits will likely be reduced by 25 percent (or more, depending how economic collapse rolls in 2025-2026 works outy).

Like any other grand strategic move in business, you need to be decisive and early.  The late will “miss breakfast” in this kind of world.

Let me know what you think – I like to keep writing a book because it gives the mind something to focus on.  Keeps me looking at whatever is coming next. Like this just done Longevity book does.

OK, tax attorney comes in Sunday night so expect shorter columns next week, though I expect you to tryptophan load enough (*via turkey and gravy and scale-busting sides) that you may not notice.

ShopTalk Sunday will focus on Black Friday tool shopping and a week from Sunday my consigliere and I will be putting up huge ham radio wire antennas with our drones…which is the hot ticket for ham radio operators who can’t climb to the tippy-top of spindly 100-foot trees….

Write when you get rich,

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