We are (at last!) nearing the end of the political silly-season. The Election is about 17 days out. And as the mainstream keeps touting, there’s what some stories report as a 72 percent chance of a Harris win. As in The stock market still leans to this candidate winning the presidential election.
For us, however, the election is not the sole “deal point” in how America’s future evolves. Because while half the country could (literally, sadly) “go ballistic” on the “wrong” outcome of the vote, we are also stuck in something of a Sargasso Sea of polluted and marginally navigable international waters.
As always, we recommend voters use the Constitution – adding deep study of how any candidate has (or might) hold to its values left unsupervised – as the decision metric for vote casting. Toss in views on money, as well. because in addition to the politics of Open Borders, dependence on foreign industry, and social programs run amok, there’s the issue of compounding National Debt. Which as you can check any time at Our Debt Clock : About : Truth in Accounting is continuing to rise.
The reason for calling this “fusible Friday” is that in addition to the (overload of) social and political currents flowing, there’s exceptional risk over the coming three weeks that International conflict will raise the level of multiple discrete wars to a higher profile – and in so fusing, World War III will become obvious.
May not be obvious at first. But that’s how World Wars work. Somewhat small regional conflicts – like Hitler marching into the Sudetenland (1938) – eventualyl fester and grow leading to the calamity that was WW II. Same thing in WW I, though arguably that was more event-driven by the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand.
In present times, American’s are hamstrung by our own captive consciousness – narcicism really. I don’t known more than a handful of colleagues who can name even a few key “national dates” of lesser countries – those “off the American public radar.”
It’s useful to know, for example, three key dates in Nigeria’s history: October 1, 1960 (independence day), May 30, 1967 (start of the Biafra War), and October 1, 1963 (when Nigeria became a republic). I realize this may seem a bit obscure but it helps add context when the odd news story slides past under the perceptual threshold. Like Nigeria’s Air Force chief visit Italy to buy 34 fighter jets, helicopters – Official.
Nigeria’s not a “top-of-mind” country for most Americans. Still, they produce oil (lots) and have good resources. Nigeria seeing positive results from fiscal reforms, World Bank says, also sounds hopeful. Yet the country has its share of disasters – besides the floods a couple of years back – and even this week when more than 160 people died in an oil tanker explosion and fire. Behind Nigeria’s Fuel Tanker Explosion, a Fatal Quest for Cheap Gasoline.
While Nigeria suffers its ‘dance with the devil” over energy development and coping with growth (and a strengthening national currency) it’s also useful to see that local standards in Nigeria are different than here. Facebook faulted for video showing group brutally beating two gay men in Nigeria.
There is – in all this – a key takeaway: The U.S. is not the “only game in town” anymore – as we arguably were in the immediate aftermath of WW II. Our ignorance of other countries is immense.
Know What Day This Is?
The discussion of Nigeria is to frame American insensitivity. Not just to other nations, but even our own history. Because a colleague reminded me overnight:
“Tomorrow (in Asia, on the other side of the date line, which will be the 19th there, as it is already the 18th here) is an interesting date. On 19 October 1950, the Chinese People’s Volunteer Army (PVA) crossed the Yalu and entered the Korean war. It will thus be the 74th anniversary of the formal start of military conflict between the PRC and USA (under UN auspices). FWIW…
Against this backdrop, China’s show of force in massive military exercises alarms Taiwan because China won’t renounce use of force over Taiwan; Xi visits frontline island | Reuters. We’re in a weather window for the next 12 hours, or so, which could be risky. Windy: Xinyi, Taipei weather forecast. Winds out of the northeast in the coming week will put Taiwan’s key industrial port in the island’s lee. That’d be Kaohsiung.
Up north a ways South Korean intelligence: North Korea has sent troops to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine which we’d already picked up from several sources.
We’re also up to the “current capacity” of the world as it related to Israel’s pending retributions against Iran. The result? Iran issues stark warning to Israel amid escalating tensions, but there was no mention of nukes, although Iran is widely held to have enough lower enriched uranium to produce up to 5 weapons already. And wait, what’s this? Iran is making WW II German “wunderwaffen-like” claims now? Iran has secret weapons more powerful than nuclear arms. (So secret no one knows how to build them? Or, a gain of function pandemic targeting non-Persians?)
With the US striking Houthi in Yemen, another problem area (besides Gaza) is Hezbollah Vows a New Phase in the War, as Israel Says It Has Killed Hamas Leader Sinwar.
Stress – in global affairs – is running extremely high. Tensions are continuing to rise and one of these “wires to WW III” is likely to melt.
And that’s before we get to Joe Biden visiting to Germany to talk about Ukraine and NATO. Biden, in Germany, Urges Unwavering Support for Ukraine – The New York Times.
With the start of BRICS meetings in Kazan, Russia next week, we’re hoping that the “lid will stay on things” but the odds of that seem low. There are good reasons for Israel to attack Iran when both Russia and Iran are focused on BRICS next week. But there’s a rising sense of tension now, and the fuses on self restraint could fail at any time. Even on fusible Friday.
Housing Starts and Markets
Going into winter soon, housing starts are less critical, but there is the election context to these:
Raw: Building Permits: 1,428,000
Housing Starts: 1,354,000
Housing Completions: 1,680,000
Super strong to come in the wake of Heleme-Milton, though, we’d venture.
We think our friend, The Economic Fractalist – who sees a grim downside week coming – may be right. Because in our Aggregate Index work:
Gold has held 7-cents short of $2,730 today but silver is sluggish as futures near $33. Will BTC complete a double-top? $67.700 looms at press time. It’s trying.
Non-Election, Real News
Despite the “easy clickbait of any incendiary headlines” there is real news out there that you might want to keep an eye on.
For example, if you worry about your health: Official Data Shows Kidney Failure Deaths Surging Among Covid-Vaxxed.
Oh, it gets worse, too: Glenn Beck on X: “Did you know our govt had a CONTRACT with Moderna that led to mRNA COVID vaccines and royalties were paid to a Fed bank account? It’s very similar to our food industry. Companies PAY the govt to approve poisons put into our food. We get chronic illnesses. Big Pharma profits.
We think people are getting sick of news coverage, though: you can see supporting data in Netflix Beats Wall Street’s Forecast.”Pass the clicker, honey, let’s watch a movie instead of this crap...” may not be in our home only…
For now, we’ll take Elon Musk’s view and the points: America on X: “ELON MUSK: “We want secure borders, we want safe cities.. sensible spending. We want Freedom of Speech. We want the Constitution to be upheld.” “Anyone who is against those things is fundamentally anti-American and to Hell with them!” Damn shame Musk isn’t “natural born.”
Around the Ranch: Winter Cometh
One item for your to-do list if you live south of the Mason-Dixon: Change the batteries in your outside electronics. Yep. Outside clocks – and even the one pendulum clock in the office – have had their batteries die this week. Seasonal thing. Batteries put out higher voltages when warm and – just like your car battery that’s more likely to fail on a good cold morning -, the one’s around the patio, deck, greenhouse, shop, and welding table all needed changing.
Yes, NOAA did that reporter briefing on winter climate outlooks on Thursday and there was the expected Lina Nina winter talk and drier than usual maps.
But in the short-range view – out 7 days) it looks like the cooling will bring some much-needed precip to the four-corners region in the week ahead:
While much of the USA remains in drought, the South is keeping an eye on two storms – especially the one southeast of Yucatan – which could spool up for some late-season hurricane action:
Now the weekend ahead, though? More outdoor work around here. Hard to beat lower 80s and low 50s as good working weather, so guess we better get after it…
Write when you get rich,
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