There are enough moving pieces today that a simple listing on the whiteboard should keep you “in the game.” But, speaking of “games” let’s play…
Breaking and Broken:
GDP:
“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 4.4 percent. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. At the state level, real GDP ranged from a 3.8 percent increase in North Dakota to a 8.3 percent decrease in the District of Columbia.”
Personal Income and fairy tales:
Personal income decreased $18.2 billion (0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $18.3 billion (0.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.2 billion (0.5 percent).
Unemployment Filings:
Drought Data
Now the fun stuff…
Markets Tiptoe the Abyss, The Sequel
In Elliott Wave terms, we have rather obviously now down a Wave 1 down – from all-time highs. Which has been followed by the Wave 2 up – which may be complete now. Which means the next directional move of magnitude could be down in a serious fashion.
On our Peoplenomics.com subscriber side ($40/year which is stupidly cheap) here’s the pay day chart to be contemplating.
We follow an odd path of considering present-day economics and how the resultant waveform closely matches previous eras. Which is how we (quite logically) get to the Guthrie kidnapping as being the modern rhyme of the 1920s Lindbergh kidnapping, follow?
Yes, of course. Epstein is the echo of Teapot Dome and Crypto is the Franken currency off Charles Ponzi’s pyramiding scheme of the Twenties.
In the grand scheme? We should have a Dust Bowl – or its first cousin famine – showing up soon. Which if you track, explains why I long-ago blew out of the “mahogany foxhole C-level life” and headed for the woods. (Besides, far away from city noise, you can hear yourself think and the ham radio hobby enjoys much quieter radio adventures. Why, toss in plenty of room to plant foodstuffs on 1.2 million square feet of Paid For, and pretty soon, it looks less crazy. But I digress…
The Elliott Bull’s Eye
There were some steps to the math, but if you want to re-invent our views, here’s how you do it.
- You build a broad spectrum financial indicator because this is not the economy of 1929.
- Then you take your “aggregate index” and lay it up against 1929.
If you want to get wrapped around the axle of inflation, have fun; we’re ground waveform matching as good as high precision decimal pointing.
Except for this critical point:
We have in math the “law of large numbers.” Over time, things average.
We were expecting a pop over the 200 day moving average. And with that has come a State Variance Extreme. Here’s how SVE works out in the NASDAQ but this is also extensible to the Dow and S&P, as well:
Could the market go higher? Of course! Are we in a short position now – because of the risk everyone will run to the other side of the boat now or in the next week, or two? Of course.
The “law of large numbers” seems to point at Fibonacci sequences in the data. Consequently, we calculated in the Wednesday ChartPack as follows:
“The Aggregate Index hit a recent low of 54,527.83 – a possible Wave 1 down that walked out on the high board at 60,703.18. That measures a drop of 6,175.35 points. If you multiply that times 0.618 you get 3,816.36.
This means from the low, the market should (In a perfect Fibonacci world) hit the sum of the 3,816 added to the low of 54,538 call it 58,344.19.
As of the early preopen, the Aggregate traded 58,670.88. Let’s see how it looks at the end of the firefight today.”
Now we know: At the close Wednesday our Aggregate posted 58,432.51. Which – oh by-the-by – is less than 100 points from “Perfect, it’s OK to stop the rally here and collapse!” Less than 2-10ths of one percent is a fine enough error rate for home use.
Doesn’t mean it will happen, though, you see. It would just fit. And that’s where we sneak up on one of the embedded Great Lessons of Life for this turn around the Rock. Maybe it’s learning the “easy hand on the tiller” – the “going with the flow when it’s inside (whatever the winds have as a Bollinger band equivalent).”
There’s a progression in Life we all go through: When young it’s the “sparklies” and teen the “good looking” followed by sexual attraction, then admiration of money, then accomplishments and possessions. But, somewhere – with a lot of personal miles under your keel – you begin to judge overall helmsmanship.
A wildly disproportionate number of UrbanSurvival readers are masters of steering. We have an incredible number of retired military (oak leaf clusters (col.)), pilots, sailors (a surprising number of offshore hands, at that) and a good number – like “Capt. Gooding” we call him – who can check multiple boxes.
If you happen on this website and it “doesn’t stick” – you may be on another chapter of Life. The overall Seamanship for the Voyage is seasoned by command, left seat time, storms offshore, and having made most (if not many of the mistakes in life) already. Being a parent will “season you” more than most appreciate.
Stick around – it’s an interesting place. Where there’s a fond distinction between old doers and old Dewar’s. Where were we?
No Peace – Just Hype
Oil is back up to $100 this morning. BTC can’t seem to get $72,700 and the precious metals are sideways. You have only to consider the news flow to take it all in. Don’t Be Fooled by US/Iran Ceasefire Pump: Is Bitcoin Heading to New Lows?
Notice – if you will – how people around you will begin slowly waking up now: There was no “peace” Iran accuses U.S. of violating ceasefire as Israeli attacks on Lebanon continue.
Apparently, only a handful of people can read: The “10 conditions” Iran has laid out are impossible. U.S. to rein-in Israel which has incoming from Lebanon? U.S. must withdraw from all Middle East military bases? Who was on how much dope NOT to be able to see this was a non-starter. Seriously?
On news that Shipping stalls as Tehran dictates terms in Strait of Hormuz the only open question is how quickly will the next slide down happen, now that the Rich have sold to the silly sheep who were sold bogus Peace? Trump lashes NATO after ‘frank and open’ Rutte meeting.
We are not alone in our pessimism: G.A. Stewart’s work on Nostradamus has pointed to this summer for years. And now – as events come closer – the seers such as Kristof Jakowski who posted on Youtube regularly, give us about a week before the next bad sequence.
“Let us say that today is the first day of an agreement to begin talks. But there will not be a full ceasefire. The arrangement is supposed to last fourteen days, yet I see a boundary at nine days. Today is day one. Nine days of talks may appear to make sense. And then something happens.
My feeling is that these talks are a trick – a trap directed at Iran. For nine days it may all look reasonable, and afterward something happens.”
Which could get us out to a week from tomorrow. In the meantime? Slosh and slop in markets and rumors wave in the winds…
Around the Ranch: Death of In-Ground Copper
In my spare time (my WHAT???) I have been reduced to rebuilding the comms infrastructure out in the woods of East Texas.
We have not been able to get a call from outside of our local Zelco exchange for a full week now. Can’t call in to the pharmacy (in town), the 9-1-1 service poops a fast-busy, and were we not super-deep in redundancies, it would all be Blood Pressure City. We are retooling from:
- Centurylink email can’t be checked from Starlink. We have to use the low-speed network to sync email. [email protected] is now moved over to a Gmail account.
- But you can imagine what60-years of contacts, not to mention web logons and hosting accounts (and banking and trading and…) is like to change.
- The copper behind the low-speed (now Brightspeed) hasn’t worked for voice services for a week.
- Tracfone isn’t working anymore on cell. Once upon a time we could text on it over the multiple internet connections.
The scariest part of this is the tech I talked to from BS (b ite speed?) said the problem is somewhere in the Athen, Texas (ESS) switch but they have been working the problem for 2 weeks and haven’t solved it.
I suspect wha5t has happened is that a lot of early ESS (electronic signaling switch) gear hasn’t been services or updated in a decade. There has been a serial rampage of phone company profiteers through the American hinterlands. Ebarq begat Sprint. Sprint begat Centurylink. Which begat Brightspeed.
Somewhere along the way, the middle layers for thinned to pay the vulture class.
Which is why copper in the ground – in America is in trouble. The copper is solid enough – we can still get dial tone at d-mark and call next door. But, if it goes off the local switch and transits Athens? Well, Ben Dover is running that op.
Normal this kind of ramble would fall into the “Who Cares?” bin. BUT listen up. See in RUSSIA…
US vs. Russia: Copper Telco in Rural & Semi-Rural Areas – A Contrast
United States (Private Enterprise + Profit Pressure)
In rural and semi-rural America, legacy copper phone lines (often 50–70+ years old) are rapidly dying a death of neglect. Major carriers like Brightspeed (spun from CenturyLink/Lumen) and others have shifted strategy: they are actively retiring copper in favor of fiber where it makes economic sense, while deliberately under-maintaining the old plant in low-density areas.
Maintenance reality: Copper suffers from storm damage, corrosion, third-party cuts, and outright theft (copper thieves targeting cables for scrap value). Outages lasting weeks are increasingly common in places like rural Texas, Arkansas, Missouri, and North Carolina. Techs report that companies no longer prioritize repairs on pure copper voice lines; instead, they push customers toward fiber or wireless alternatives.
Business driver: Copper is expensive to maintain (truck rolls, battery backups at remote cabinets, aging switches like old ESS gear). Fiber is ~35% cheaper per subscriber to maintain once built, with far fewer failures. Private companies facing shareholder pressure have “thinned the middle layers” — fewer field crews, delayed upgrades, and a quiet policy of letting copper degrade until customers give up or switch.
Rural impact: In low-population zones, this creates real vulnerability. Landline 911 reliability suffers. DSL speeds crawl. Customers fall back on Starlink, cellular (spotty in woods), or satellite. The infrastructure is still physically there, but the operational will to keep it alive beyond the local exchange is fading fast.
Outcome: A slow-motion “death of in-ground copper” driven by economics. It’s not a conspiracy so much as cold capitalism: density doesn’t justify the cost, so service degrades until migration happens.
Russia (State-Controlled + Strategic Priorities)
Russia still relies more heavily on legacy copper in its vast rural expanses, but the picture is different — shaped by geography, sanctions, and national priorities rather than pure shareholder returns.
Maintenance reality: Rural telephone service has historically been patchy and outdated, with many villages still depending on aging copper pairs for basic voice. Fixed-line teledensity is low overall, and rural areas lag significantly. Rostelecom (the dominant state-aligned operator) has been modernizing, but progress is uneven. Copper degradation occurs from weather, vast distances, and simple age, yet the state often subsidizes extensions to remote settlements under “Bridging the Digital Divide” programs.
Business/Strategic driver: Russia is pushing fiber where it can (especially in urban cores and strategic corridors), but fiber rollout faces real constraints: sanctions, a destroyed domestic optical fiber plant (damaged in 2025), and heavy reliance on expensive Chinese imports. Much new fiber investment goes toward military, government, or backbone needs rather than civilian rural broadband. As a result, copper hangs on longer in the countryside because the alternative (fiber to every remote village) is logistically and financially brutal across 11 time zones.
Rural impact: Many rural Russians fall back on mobile voice/data with strict caps and throttling once limits are hit. High-speed fixed internet remains inconsistent outside cities. The government maintains basic voice coverage in thousands of villages via containerized equipment and subsidies, treating reliable communications as a matter of social stability and control — not just profit.
Outcome: Copper lingers not because it’s well-maintained, but because replacing it everywhere is harder in such a massive, low-density territory under external pressure. The state props up minimum service levels that pure private markets in the US have largely abandoned.
Key Takeaway
In the US, copper in rural areas is being actively starved — allowed to fail as companies chase efficiency and fiber economics. In Russia, copper persists longer as a reluctant backbone because the sheer scale and strategic realities make full modernization slower and more selective. One system abandons the old plant for profit; the other stretches it out for coverage and control.
Both approaches leave rural residents in a fragile spot when the old copper finally gives up the ghost. The difference is who decides when — and why — the lights (or dial tone) go out.
Sure, we have 40 solar panels and two space links and yes we have a backup (two MagicJack lines) and yes, we can get 9-1-1 that way. And with Alexa voice on the “plus” AI rigs, we can even get a human operator without even having to dial. Which is pretty good, really.
BUT use is half-past-pissed that Russia seems to be actually adopting the concepts in my book Downsizing more than our own country is.
One of the 9-1-1 operators I was talking to during testing this week tell me, ”
We have Spectrum fiber and love it!”
Where do I get in line? We have had a coil of unspliced fiber at the pole in our front yard for more than 2-years unable to get a completion date.
Maybe we should order our phone service from Russia?
Write when you get the line is working again (I’ll let you now…)
Read the full article here