We are nearing the halfway mark of what promises to be three major storms. Two of which are hurricanes, and the third will be “what follows as a consequence.”
However, before we dig into that, we have a couple of “housekeeping stories” because economics does matter.
Fed Dope & NFIB Small Business
No surprise in the Federal Reserve (yoke of) Consumer Debt report out Monday. Although spending continued strong at just over $5.0976 trillion outstanding and the preliminary July data was dialed back by a couple of billion (which is budget dust when in th trillions range), we again (for the umpteenth time) can’t figure out how the Fed could justify a half-point rate cut. Oil is back down (a bit) but consumer spending continues unabated. With Amazon Prime Days today and tomorrow – plus what will be screaming demand on the materials side – seems to us there is nothing but high demand ahead and that – if you skipped econ class – is bound to drive up prices.
The next question goes: When will this be noticed down here at the non-Elite level? Partial answers may be intuited from the National Federation of Independent Business surveys that come out monthly:
“Small business optimism remains historically low in September
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Oct. 8, 2024) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 0.3 points in September to 91.5. This is the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading recorded. Fifty-one percent of owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, down five points from August. Meanwhile, the number of owners reporting inventory gains fell four points to a net negative 13% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest reading since June 2020.”
The “street” is doing fine (retail is holding, the rates are down a bit, and GDP is going along) but it’s like the old sailing problem: “How do you trim sails for a shit-storm?”
For now, one of the biggest problems is we are no longer self-sufficient. And that’s how elitists at Davos and the WEF get to screw with us: We are being choked by economic dependencies which (watch for it) are being tightened over time and will result in the eventual capitulation of America into the Global Socialist fold – with them in charge – not us little people.
So with that cheerful framing, let’s see how bad the trade deficit is shaping up, right? I mean when you export enough core jobs and have to buy foreign made washers, driers, televisions, stoves, refrigerators and God knows what else from Asia, it’s hardly surprising, right?
Well, no. That’s because in statistics we have a screaming C.I. (confidence interval) problem. The initial July $94.3 billion. How to you miss $15.4 billion? So we expect (going the other way) the present number will “fess up” after the election, around $80 billion, which means a trillion a year burn rate.
Tomorrow afternoon, the Fed Minutes will be released. And we’ll be looking to see if there’s any mention of passing around a nitrous bottle.
I say that because Truth in Accounting is out with their 2024 national report on state financial conditions. My favorite highlights:
- 27 states did not have enough money to pay their bills
- $2.9 trillion in debt vs. $2.1 trillion in assets
- Unfunded retirement liabilities were the largest contributing factor to
the $1.3 trillion in state-level debt. - $840 billion in pension debt and $493 billion in OPEB debt
Really, you don’t need to read axe murder novels, any more. Accounting reports are scarier…
On that, no nukes went off overnight, so we can move on to managing the global mass delusion.
Storm 1 – Stu’s Adventure
Great conversation with G.A. Stewart (of the Age of Desolation website) where his massive research into Nostradamus is headquartered. Stu, as you will recall, had 3-1/2 feet of water in his (rental) home in the Tampa area. And in the process of rising “bay and sewer water” all of his core prepping gear was ruined. “And you know, what do you do with a gun collection? Just check into a hotel with it?” Good point. The main focus though was that five-gallon buckets float – and all but a couple tipped over. So for the past week here’s bed walking of “visqueen alleys” in his house….which he’s now out of.
So are a lot of other people: He says it’s like a third world disaster – people have went molding furniture and household goods stacking up along streets and with the second storm coming, which we will get to in a sec – the city is having a hell of a time cleaning up to get ready for whatever Milton brings.
The good news – there’s a fair bit of it, actually: Stu’s driving a Ram 4-by-4 rental truck. He has rented a new home which is 30 miles north and well up hill from the coastal disaster.
But he reports a HUGE problem with how certain companies – like rental car agencies – have demonstrated their lack of database flexibility. So, he’s at a rental car place and there’s about a hundred people there (he’s still got the U Haul at this point) and people are screaming and pointing at their phones saying “Says right here my car is ready!!!” Meanwhile, the hapless local face of corporate America is pointing at the empty car lot saying “The computer is wrong…” People were getting more and more pissed.
Well, turns out, the military and big corporate came in and simply took everything in the inventory for “emergency use” and there went some of the cars. The rest was that huge gap between local disaster reality and “what the computer says…” We figure Stu’s safe and on high ground out toward Sarasota.
Another key learning point he passed on: We live in a “can’t read, gone pictorial” culture. He discovered his insurance company had a 9 picture limit on claims pictures uploads. Ex-squeeze me?
9 Pictures? 9???
His workaround was to stay up late and put all of the pictures into a Word doc and then PDF that and upload it on the cell phone. (The good news is these are mostly working.)
What that means is he has a long report ready to bump up to the Age of Desolation site, but he wants to put in pictures and other “fine tuning.”
Meanwhile, he’s been back at work after his employer, a government contractor on the .mil side) gave everyone 3 days off without burning PTO (personal time off), so he was able to get packed up and when we talked about lunchtime Monday, he was about to sign the new lease and move stuff into the high ground refuge.
Meanwhile, back at The Pickle, a/k/a McDill, the base is about to be hammered again and our “well informed source” not only sent us some imagery but the note:
“McDill is in for it. CENTCOM HQ and SOCOM HQ both in the solid red zone for flooding of greater than 9 feet above ground level. Their buildings are both in the red area east of the main runway, not far from the water. Orange is storm surge more than 6′ deep above ground, yellow is 3′ deep or deeper. The map depicts actual effect of the surge on the land, not just level above sea level. I imagine that all aircraft are being relocated away from the area. I guess Milton is going to “Hav-A-Tampa” (which are no longer made in Tampa, but rather in Puerto Rico, so are safe… more or less, from the storm.)”
Along with those cigars, much of the surrounding area is about to get smoked again… but for now, Stu’s safe and that’s a very good thing.
The Second Storm Comes
Milton is still spooling up as a Cat 5 in the Gulf. Conspiracy fans will love the overnight appearance of the yellow X on the map.
Meantime, most of the entire rest of the US is heading into drought because all this (coincidental, not driven by the global network of atmospheric heaters that are warming up air masses to drive weather around, of course) must have nothing to do with these odd behaviors.
But the question now is what will it hit land as? (Bets on Cat 3 or 4 here). And the more important “How much water will it be “pushing and dumping?” The push will come from low barometric pressure which will pile up water near the core before coming ashore so an “eye on the glass” will be useful. And an umbrella…
As you can see, there are areas of rain that are likely to push into that 15-20 inch range as they come in, so the second storm is set to be worse than the first one.
And (try not to look surprised) we are seeing stories in the media – about the media – and oh, my, here’s personal branding in action: Kaitlin Collins Stunned By Mayor Jane Castor’s Dire Warning (mediaite.com). No, normally we don’t link to such pap, but we are living in the “clickbait and eyeballs era” which is awkward in a crisis event. Media is largely, and I used to be in it- the most anti-environmental industry or all: producing goods with 1 second half-lives… Film at 11 (and 11:01, and 11:02, and….)
Oh, and see The weaponization of weather: When ‘climate control’ is mass marketed as ‘climate change’ (substack.com) Yeah, um…
WW Storm III
The dishonesty of the Biden-Harris administration becomes clear to us – that the War Party is still angling for a World War – when a master arms dealer release deal is cut and the arms dealer is freed: Viktor Bout, Vladimir Putin’s ‘Merchant of Death,’ back in business after prisoner exchange release . If the dems really wanted peace (or were even being honest about their gun sympathies) then they would have kept the ARMS DEALER LOCKED UP. But, no. Swallow the bullshit and let’s all keep pretending that socialism (woke, climate, etc) all makes sense.
Oh, but the World War stuff will come late this month. That’s when BRICS is over and Russia will be ready to take on NATO even more directly. Russian forces reach another key frontline city, Ukraine’s military says (trtworld.com). And look who else is coming to the party: North Korea ‘highly likely’ sending troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine, South Korea says.
Sure, there may be some (rational) people trying to re-establish regional stasis Slovak PM Vows to Block Ukraine’s NATO Membership, Calls to Restore Ties with Russia (kyivpost.com) but James Taylor lyrics are being applied by the War Monger block (“I’m a steam roller baby…”)
But there are more that “balls and box scores” to report around Ukraine. Here’s an interesting tech discussion if you’re still hot to invest in the death industriesL A Missile Could Not Erase Russian Drone’s Embarrassing Stealth Secret (forbes.com). I’d have to check, but when I was at Sherwin-Williams for my deck railing paint this weekend, I didn’t notice a “stealth coatings” end-cap. So yeah, maybe paint, electronics, and design angles matter…
Back to the key takeaway: by releasing Bout, Biden becomes the world’s biggest biggest-ever gun control liar. Surely the (dynamite) Nobel will be coming?
Meanwhile, Here In Crazyland
On the Kamala side: Taylor Swift hugs pregnant Brittany Mahomes at Chiefs vs. Saints game (pagesix.com) OK….and… (crickets)
With the M.E. on edge and Biden Palestine support: Trump appears at Oct. 7 remembrance event in Miami, Fla. Second biggest community outside NYC, is it not?
And yes, to anyone with a brain: Elon Musk: “Purpose of No Voter ID Is Obviously to Conduct FRAUD In Elections”. OH, why imagine that!!!
If you missed the Sept. 25th Peoplenomics report, this may come as a surprised (but not really): FEMA Doled Out Millions Pushing ‘Equity,’ Prioritizing ‘Underserved Communities’ Leading Up To Hurricane Season. (I bet more people are damaged or injuried by DEI in these hurricanes than media reports…)
Around the Ranch: Food Run and Writing
Our grocery run Monday came to $703.68. Why, with such a small food bill, no booze in it, right? Yeah – different trip. Might take the truck for that run…
Which gets to Peoplenomics tomorrow (in the Longevity book installment) where we will explain getting out of the ‘starter fluid and brake fluid Life.”
You go finish your starter fluid now…
Write when yu get rich,
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