There is – as usual – much to talk about. But with our “action over loose talk” mindset here, we’re becoming almost ruthless in cutting through “news filler” and “emo-clicks.” Because – in the end – it better be a spend, or it’s out, my friend.
Breaking: Numbers
Just out:
“WASHINGTON, D.C. (Dec. 9, 2025) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.8 points in November to 99.0 and remained above its 52-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, six increased, three decreased, and one was unchanged. An increase in those expecting real sales to be higher contributed most to the rise in the Optimism Index. The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points from October to 91. An increase in owners reporting uncertainty about capital expenditure plans over the next three to six months was the primary driver of the rise in the Uncertainty Index. “
Not likely to change the market overall, but worth mentioning.
Advertising Defines the Future – What’s Actionable
Fact: Online ad costs are dropping sharply this quarter as major brands pull back spending and Google CPC rates weaken across multiple categories. Advertising isn’t going away. But there’s a metamorphosis underway.
For one, AI is empowering new approaches in advertising: Predictions 2026: Smaller Players Emerge Through Cracks In Media’s Triopoly. On top of this, rosy forecasts – like Advertising & Promotions – Global Ad Spend Outlook for 2024-2026 – signal 7 percent growth. But hold up there, partner. Outlooks usually don’t back out real inflation.
So what: Falling ad prices – and adding AI into the mix for better spending analysis in near-real time – usually signal that companies expect softer consumer demand ahead. When advertisers get cautious, it often precedes broader economic slowing. Now, toss in how advertising access is a political/economic tool: Elon Musk’s X Blocks EU Ads Account After €120m Fine. And Musk has friends: Sen. Mike Lee: Free Speech Under Attack On Musk’s X by EU’s ‘Arrogant Bureaucratic Regime.
While we don’t talk much about ads, there’s a lot in play. Clicking through Ad Age headlines the biggest “Brand Fails” of 2025. There’s a lot of them. And even AI comes in for review in 5 brand fails with AI in 2025 and lessons for marketers – Ad Age,
Action: If your income depends on advertising, commissions, or marketing budgets, tighten operations now. Reduce fixed expenses, diversify revenue streams, and preserve cash. Households should delay large discretionary purchases. The high-level view?
- AI adoption in ad agencies is well underway. There have been failures, but AI is likely to be more widely used in the “looking over the shoulder in account review” manner.
- Mass media terrain is changing. We see it in falling revenue across our web-based inventory as advertisers run to “the latest new thing.” In 1998, UrbanSurvival was edgy. Today? We’re legacy.
- AI will change sales. Better prospect targeting, prioritization, and product-fit analysis. Humans may gag and revoke at the digital choke collar being applied. But in America, the bottom line always wins. (Though not always a good thing…)
Share this with anyone you know in sales, media, or small business — this is an early warning, not a headline yet. These events are still in the “human, steerable” bin. For now… Mention to them that legacy media – like us – sometimes still gets it right.
Poker or Joker Day for Fed
America stopped being a true Constitutional Republic in about 1913, or so. That’s when the Federal Reserve – created by an abdication by Congress – seized financial control. The Constitution requires Congress, not a banking industry, rule the Nation’s Money. All done legally – but that didn’t make it right.
The Federal Reserve shifted monetary sovereignty away from direct democratic control in a way critics still argue violates the spirit (not the letter) of the Constitution.
President during this Great Heist was Woodrow Wilson. He was a Progressive: favored stronger federal power, banking reform, income taxes, and market regulation. By today’s scale, he’d fall somewhere between center-left technocrat and nationalist reformer.
This tradition – gambling on our future – continues today.
The Roots of “Narrative Government”
The Federal Reserve operates a “time machine”. On one timeline America is still sold the notions of Global Leadership, Dollar Hegemony, and usual “Truth, Justice, and the American Way.”
But on the other timeline, Bankster and Financial Engineers are still running the “Watering down money” machinery. Academics – having a harder time with honest accounting – argued Inflation is prices going up. But the reality never spoken is that money’s purchasing power is going down. Fish rot from their wallets.
Result? Structural Inflation.
Our Dollar purchasing power is falling faster than competitors – like China’s. We have to pay less interest on the money we make up or the compounding debt will finish us off.
The internal American narrative is sold this way:
Growth Claimed, Less Inflation Admitted, is Narrative Growth.
To real people here’s the fact:
Average Affordable Widgets divided by Money Paid for Hours Worked equals Quality of Life.
The best the Fed can do is play to the consensus. There’s a 90 percent chance of a rate drop reflected at the FedWatch – CME Group tool.
You, me, and the rest of America? Collateral damage inflicted by interests who sold us out to China and Asia. Long forgotten, except in the “Rust Belt” where America still suffers.
Newsometer Readings
Before e start, BP meds check – we’re going to jump around a bit here…
A foreign policy showdown is in the works: Congress limits Pentagon force reductions in Europe and South Korea. Would someone please tell the Congress that we don’t have unlimited money unless THEY are planning to raise taxes?
Mr. Understated, restrained, and thoughtful is back at it: Trump threatens Mexico with 5% tariff over water dispute.
Do Headlines report Truth or reveal deeply held media Bias? Here’s today’s quiz: Alina Habba Will Stop Pretending to Be a Federal Prosecutor—for Now – Mother Jones.
2026 Myth-Building is now well underway. With a few questions… Gavin Newsom is the First Governor to Make Homelessness a Way of Life – California Globe
Tech warfare continues as bets are being placed: Microsoft vs. Amazon: Which Cloud Computing Stock Will Outperform in 2026?
Catholics and Controversy: Pope Leo Endorses Muslim Colonization in the West.
And when the laws don’t suit the lawless? Bar Owner Gets DEATH THREATS After Offering FREE BEER For Helping ICE Deport Illegals.
Around the Ranch: Brisqi‘ing the Day
Tomorrow’s Peoplenomics column is a monster. Runs 40 pages with the data appendix. This is only the first of two parts. This is the “action list” of hedging 2026 and there are 14 listed, though it may expand as work continues on it today.
Next week the companion “Annual Self-Improvement” confessional will be along. One passing mention – getting more done in less time – is worth sharing generally. I’ve been a real fan of an offline Kanban tool called Brisqi.
Every morning at 4:30 AM the ritual is fire up my personal Kanban tool and plan out the day. Here’s where the balance of today is going:
Unlike a traditional “to do” list, a Kanban let’s you slide stuff around (between columns and project tabs.
I’ve probably killed a tree, or two, buying yellow pads over the past half century. But electronic selsf-managment uis one frontier I am still mastering.
I mention this once or twice a year – ahead of the New Year’s resolution window – so you can capture all those high-minded ideas. Everyone makes plans and resolutions. But one of the key things from minimalist son G2 if distilling things doen to the 3 things that matter most today.
I tend to arrange the day not on raw priority, but in actual working order. So, for example, the Walmart home delivery order won’t be placed real early because the fresh breads land typically in the before 11 AM window. I hate day-old bread.
There are other workable tools. Learning to use the “Outline View” in MS Word is a good one. LibreOffice has a similar tool but it’s hidden away under Navigator. I don’t care for it as much.
Online tools may be slicker than Brisqi, but I like to run everything locally-hosted. That way, should the “worst happen” I will have less recovery work. I like things that keep working. Free to try and no, I don’t get anything from mentioning it. It’s just I offered some product ideas years ago and it’s a very useful tool.
I know some people like more ornate tools for personal planning. But while I’ve used MS Project for commercial construction projects (managing T.I. build-out is not something to keep in your head…) it’s way too heavy for everyday work. And MS To-Do is not as graceful as Briqi’s surface.
When I’m not around a computer, there’s still tiny notebook in the shirt pocket. But – unlike most folks – I use the weatherproof version you can get on Amazon for a few bucks more. See 6 Pack Waterproof Notebook Pocket Notepad 3×5 All-Weather Small Pocket Notebook Waterproof Police Spiral Notepad Little Memo Notepads for Outdoor Travel Office School.
On sale for under $8 for a six-pack, it’s good enough for cops and first responder field notes,. So, good enough for me. Used with a pencil, it’s not a “pretty” as yellow pads and a good wide rollerball pen. But it’s definitely more suited to survival and prepping use. Which I hope we never get to…
Also a great stocking stuffer? The OHTO Fude roller pens with a 1.5 mm bold tip. And for what is one of the darked writing pencils in the world, try Mitsubishi Uni Hi-Uni 10B which is not a cheap pencil, but for after it all blows up? Well, check them out here. Or, consider this one. Remember a 6B pencil will smear a bit, so when picking the right “survival pencils” balance out long writing between sharpending and less smearing (6H is harder) versus the 6B which is softer and bolder.
We assume you have “survival sharpeners” laid in already?
Write when you get rich, or with a new writing instrument,
Read the full article here