AGJSGW: “As Goes Japan, So Goes World” is a suitable start to train-wreck viewing as the month ends and the week begins.
My friend Robin Handler of the Options Signal Service made a dandy observation overnight: “While Sept is the worse month for stocks historically, during an election year it turns out that Oct is the worst month.” So, pay attention now class. We have a chance of seeing history in the making or a replay of an earlier trend.
“Japan Clocked” (Translated)
Linguistics are someone else’s forte. We are simple word-counters here. But the term “clocked” has many meanings. One of which is “To hit someone” so we refer to Japan’s stock market performance overnight in this regard. Other slanguistics are less suitable (“To identify someone as transgender” or “To catch sight of or notice something or someone” and “To keep track of slot machines to predict when they will pay out…”)”
“What are you saying, Ure?”
Um… -1,910.
That’s how much the Nikkei 225 average tumbled while you were sawing ZZZ’s. Though we have no idea what our Houston Bureau was doing up at 4:-3 AM to tell us Here’s why Japan’s stocks are plunging after Shigeru Ishiba’s win… Except, of course that Houston is a place lately where good solid sleep may be a little scarce. I mean storm after storm and now a dock worker’s strike likely tomorrow.
But let’s hold on that and first look at the Big Picture stuff:
Elliott Waves and Slope Compression
I suppose it’s worth having a mechanical discussion of how Charts evolve over time. Especially because I spent about 7-minutes last night over wine on the screen porch explaining to Elaine how “meter reading parallax” is one of the topics old broadcast engineers (Hank in Hawaii, and me as a once SBE.org member) can wax on about. Or, you can visit Avoid Parallax Error in Gauge ReadingsAvoid Parallax Error in Gauge Readings – Raptor Supplies Blog for a discussion of how parallax impacts things like non-digital micrometer readings.
The point that I’d draw (rock star trader D’Lynn’s) attention to, (since he questioned the trend lines on our charts) is that there is a time-derived first-cousin of meter parallax in charts.
So. that when it (at first) looks like we busted through the upper trend line (which we did, OK?) it is not conclusive that the break is complete until we have escaped from the chance of breaking down.
In other words, as the chart contains “more time” (time’s marching on, an all) the slope of our Rally trend lines will become more pronounced. and thus, the immediate reading of chart – which does often work – can be seen occasionally to first fail, but then (as more time is added and the ascending slope becomes more severe) be proven correct.
Which is how I can peacefully sleep with a long-dated put option basket while other people were bailing. Until, that is, savvy option traders saw a HUGE – most inexplicable rise in put option premiums Friday (which may resolve into much lower equity pricing over the next two weeks). Again, think of this as “Slope Compression”.
Assume a 3 points chart. Where point #1 and #2 project slope A. At slope A point #3 is above the slope. But now, increase the total time in the chart. As time is Added, slope A rises. That is, slope A + (time) equals a new slope B.
At the new slope B (as we see in the pre-session today, the Aggregate Index is again heading for the trend line (now slope B). We may actually hit the revised slope B during today’s trading – more of that damnable “time stuff” before we find out.
What becomes possible is that with the addition of “more time” to the span of the chart the slope B + (time) will result, in a week or three, as new slope C.
The reason this is critical is that when working on visual trading, you have few clues as to what the “correct” time base is for any particular view. That is, you can solve for the “like best time periods” but most people revert to numerical solutions even though (with practice) you can “see the slope changing in slow motion” in the disciplined visual brain.
By the way, this visual time compression is also a reason present-day physics bumps into the woodwork. This has everything to do with properties of manifolds in space-time, reduced to a subtle effect in money-grubbing.
But, I digress.
The Dock Walk Talk
Complexity Implosion
Clif High has a very good piece on his Sub Stack Sunday about how the powers that were are now going completely off-script. It’s about how when things begin to “go wrong” for the PTB, they tend to do more of the same old shit (that didn’t work).
We were shocked to see the “in Ure’s face” of this phenom on the Drudge Report this morning where a doctored picture of Donald Trump was used along with the headline “Trump Goes Darker”. Which, in turn linked to the story Trump launches into ‘dark speech’ on illegal immigration (yahoo.com).
It was surprising to the old newsman that this close to a dock strike, there was no mention of it looming or what impacts could be. Is this how the PTB lose focus?
Notwithstanding, there’s only so much room, but it might be an instructive omission. Ports strike threatens Walmart, Ikea, Home Depot imports (cnbc.com). And it could come at a time when exactly these Big Boxer’s are needed at full capacity for Helene recovery. When the death toll is now around 90.
Halloween Month
Burn your britches and kiss your witches month starts tomorrow. For this morning we’re goblin pap like this:
The headline is the whole story example: Tim Walz and JD Vance’s 2024 VP debate is tomorrow. Here’s what to know. – CBS News. Yep, that’s all of it, in advance, I guess.
National Insecurity is on the line in the WestPac: Assuming you know we can’t really make all military needs here at home anymore, US approves US$567 million in defence assistance for Taiwan (hongkongfp.com). Biden and the dimmowits have backed up into a “fight or die” supply chain cluster***.
Rights grabbing goes out of style in Oz as people wake to the liberal agenda and wokism goes to the mat: Austrian far-right party wins 1st national election since World War II : NPR. Selling out ain’t as popular?
Forget AI, Gruesome! California Gov. Newsom signs 2 bills to protect children from AI-generated deepfake sexual images | Fortune. But where are the bills to protect against what’s in curriculum?
Personal Protection from Getting Screwed, II: It’s time to take warnings about using airport public Wi-Fi seriously (cnbc.com). Why, we take ’em so seriously, we don’t fly anymore.
Biolab fire to keep an eye on: Terrifying footage from burning biolab in Conyers, Georgia shows huge plume of smoke as inferno sparks massive evacuations. Expect reports to, er, mutate.,
Big Picture read of the day: Mistaking Militarism for Statecraft, Empire for Democracy and Debt for Prosperity – The Burning Platform
War Checks
Ukraine is almost to the desperation phase which means: A Few Long-Range Strikes by Ukraine Could Shift Tide of War: ISW. By the way, a report from my consigliere who has been monitoring future-prediction sites notes a Polish “seer” (with a good track record) who sees Putin attacking a Western nuke plant is Ukraine doesn’t stop their deep strikes into Russia (and they won’t, so brace for a nuke plant attack in Europe though timing is not clear…)
Expect Israel to invade Lebanon in force this week: The probes have begun in Israeli forces carry out limited incursions in Lebanon, report finds – The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com). While on the other side Hezbollah Says It Is Ready for Any Israeli Land Invasion in Lebanon (aawsat.com). It’s a mess.
At the Ranch: Cat-proof Completion?
Sunday was spent putting the last of the clear plastic panels up around the screen porch. Where a couple of the feral cats have been leaping from the railing 3-feet over a stairwell and then trying to claw their way into the porch. Elaine’s trying to balance her “mothering and taking care of” instincts with the PITA reality of too many cats.
I’ve remained detached, since people seem to “call into their lives the lessons they need to learn.”
Meanwhile, I’m pondering the meaning of Compressed Life Review: Extreme Manifestation of Autobiographical Memory in Eye-Tracker – PubMed (nih.gov). We keep coming back to the “Is there some aspect of humans that survives Death?” question.
Interestingly, the notion of a Life Review (post-death) might be something worth preparing for. With an innovative concept in Examining a Novel Legacy Activity for Elders: Oral Histories as Produced Stories – PubMed (nih.gov). Where “life review” exercises may help preserve life experience memory and pass it on, then might it have value? Especially if these reviews can be turned into new (and more accurate) media stories in the future?
Write when you get rich,
Read the full article here
