Housing Rollover?

OK, sure. The Fed doesn’t look at Housing prices, because they really like the idea of All Items less food and energy.   But, as a symptom of financial storm clouds?  When the herd gets antsy, we get worried. Today, a chill pill.

“Data through June 2025 reveals the following:

Year-Over-Year

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.9% annual gain in June, down from 2.3% the previous month.
The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.6%, down from 3.4% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.1% year-over-year gain, down from 2.8% in the previous month.
New York, Chicago, and Cleveland reported the highest year-over-year gains with year-over-year price increases of 7.0%, 6.1% and 4.5%, respectively.
Tampa posted the smallest year-over-year growth of 2.4%.

Month-over-Month

The National Index posted a 0.1% month-over-month increase while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.1% and -0.04% before seasonal adjustment in June 2025.
After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a -0.3% decrease while the 10-City and 20-City Composites also posted decreases of -0.1% and -0.3%.

Historical

Measured from its June 2006 peak, the 10-City Composite is up 60.3%.
The 20-City Composite has eclipsed its July 2006 peak by 66.0%.
The National Index is up 79.6% from its July 2006 peak.

“”June’s results mark the continuation of a decisive shift in the housing market, with national home prices rising just 1.9% year-over-year—the slowest pace since the summer of 2023,” says Nicholas Godec, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Looking ahead, this housing cycle’s maturation appears to be settling around inflation-parity growth rather than the wealth-building engine of recent years. While this represents a loss of the extraordinary gains homeowners enjoyed from 2020-2022, it may signal a healthier long-term trajectory where housing appreciation aligns more closely with broader economic fundamentals rather than speculative excess.”

Then have a look at the actual prices over time chart.  See a still percolating economy? Or one where the deportation fever managed to throw out the good with the bad?  Pretty sure Grump and Truesome would have differening views.

After the data, futures were still looking weak, which leaves us wondering if the typical pre-holiday rally will materialize later this week, or not?

You make the call. I’m making breakfast…

~ure