Yes, my sensitive and politically correct readers – the stock market which has seemed “topless” should run out of steam in here. Because in today’s preopen (and depending on Housing which will be along in moments) we coud see the maraschino on top.
Why, over the balance of Fall, we don’t wonder “What could go wrong?” No sir, we’re wondering “What could go right?”
From here through the end of the year, my friend Bullish Bob may have to change his handle to somthing more fitting: like Reluctant Robert. Which is better than Bearish Bobby, but not by much.
Still, if it really is True that markets can climb a wall of worry…
- Kamala Harris has already said she will raise taxes.
- The wars are popping out all over the place.
- And new ones threaten in the Pacific, where an embargo by China on Taiwan could leave us short of critical goods, thereby crippling our military and making resupply difficult for key weapons systems.
- Even Bitcoin hasn’t been able to buck the resistance around $65,000 and so, at least for now, will not participate in this feverish blowoff. Never fear, though, hysteria will be along, there again, we’re sure.
Meanwhile, we have no freaking clue what economic Truth is. We don’t trust the numbers of people actually employed. Best guess we have is the BLS data table which is never mentioned in the (so-called) press reports.
“Persons of Convenience”
We might as well have called this “Crooked Data Tuesday” because a colleague and I have been exchanging Big, Deep Thoughts on where the “happy ending” to all our financial and social suffering might be hiding. (We’ll get to that in a second…)
For now, I am razzled and dazzled by how the Open Border People (OBP) are likely “statistical persons of convenience.”
See, if I were crooked and producing economic stats, I’d under count “non-citizens” when making up the Labor Force numbers:
Logically (and demographically) with all the Boomers retiring, we should be going down the same road as Russia. Which is so worried about falling populations that they’re talking “sex breaks” at work. Seriously.
But this gets us to which of the illegals get counted – if any – in the Labor Stats.
The second data ponder is about of the working. Because (again, don’t be scared off by logic) if more people are working, then the economy must be doing better, right? So why is Jay Powell and the money-gifters lowering rates by a HALF?
Look at year-ago numbers and the simplistic answer we keep coming back to is Politics. The (supposedly, in fairytles) “non-partisan” Fed is being exactly partisan.
Then there’s the problem of unemployment (the Fed goes mute on):
In the latest reporting month, unemployment wasn’t up – it was down – so again, we come back to wondering Is the Fed putting its thumb on the scales of politics?
I know – cynical George. If housing comes in even part-way close to rational, then the market is likely to continue up, at least far enough to hit the old high in our Aggregate of 48,605.37. It’s an article of faith that from our pre-open read of 48,528.01 that we will likely trade through the double top.
Even my friend the Economic Fractalist is seeing the same thing: Maybe a tad more tomorrow and then off to the double-diamond falling off the mountain for the balance of early fall.
Oh, and while a number of people have complained that the Economic Fractalist is “frequently wrong” it depends entirely on your understanding of NON-MAINSTREAM HYPE. With similar thinking as to why we use an Aggregate Index for the Big Picture, his focus is on the Wilshire 5000 and I suppose the Russell 2000 ought to be mentioned, too.
On the Wilshire, yes, we are in a new high: Wilshire 5000 Total Market Inde (^W5000). But it’s – as A.I. tells us – weighted. “The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, or more simply the Wilshire 5000, is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the market value of all American stocks actively traded in the United States.” Which – in our not-so-humble – can fool your decision-making in a broadly inflationary and easy-money setting.
On the other hand, the Russell 2000 (^RUT) Stock Price, News, Quote & History – Yahoo Finance is very clear this is not a “double top” (or near it) yet. Yes, the Russell is weighted, too, but it tilts toward small caps: “The Russell 2000 Index is different from other major indexes because it tracks small-cap stocks, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) track large-cap stocks.”
And in classical market studies, when you’re in the terminal phase of a blowoff you get concentration in the “popularity contest stocks” (Magtnificent Seven, for example). While the stepchildren (small cap) tend to get overlooked in the fray.
If you want to get sucked in at the top with the “going higher, get aboard!” talk from the shills, have fun. We don’t offer financial advice. However, we will remind you of a concept from TCM (traditional Chinese medicine): In TCM ts was long practiced that if the patient didn’t get better, the doctor didn’t get paid. Try finding a “financial advisor” who’s willing to work for zero if you don’t make at least the rate of inflation. Let us know if you find such a saint.
If and when we go even (much) higher from here, then we will dump our short position and take the loss. Because – as Investopedia explains – “Carryovers of capital losses have no time limit, so you can use them to offset capital gains or as a deduction against ordinary income in subsequent tax years until they are exhausted.”
With Kamala, the Return of Hillary?
Don’t know if you caught the NY Post – Miranda Devine piece last weekend, but go do a refresher on How a circle of spies, Blinken covered up Biden scandals: Miranda Devine’s new book exclusive (nypost.com). Because we can see – now that the Brits were turned down by Biden on deep attacks in Russia, how Blinken and his overseas pals were set back from having non-US militaries call the tune on wars being waged. In fact, we have roughly pieced togethr that Lloyd Austin may have been a hero on saving American sovereignty in all this.
Complicated (and Michiavellian) this futuring stuff. For now, we think Ms. Harris will let herself be “played” by the neocon faction (where we’d slot Blinken;s allegiances). But we wouldn’t put it past her to later, bring back the Hildebeast. Which could then set up a whole “Lemony Snickett” series of knock-on events to get Hil into the Oval.
I wake up sweating when these kind of thoughts show up in nightmares. Got to stop watching Designated Survivor reruns.
BTW: Austin has more to say: SecDef Lloyd Austin Just Revealed America’s Weakness. The keeper quote: “Western governments have fallen victim to the same errors of Germany during World War II, relying upon small numbers of high-tech weapons to compensate for a lack of military manpower.”
The Lebanon War Update
Yes, it’s a war. Israel, Hezbollah resume missile launches after conflict’s deadliest day since 2006. We are amazed at the soft-peddling of this in the Mainstream. Are we the only ones who remember all the “end times” stuff. Or have studied G.A. Stewart’s more recent Nostradamus fit? “The Bhagwan Plan” is longish but goodish.
The Reality Check here is simple: Biden has gotten us into another full-on war and even now the apologist press is pretending. Like the story Israel and Hezbollah on Brink of All-Out War, as Thousands Flee From Southern Lebanon. Pardon my language, but “brink” my ass.
Ukraine is another shitshow. While reading the stories like Ukrainian President Envisions Possible End to Conflict in 2024, we note that Ukraine NATO membership, more weapons, and, oh yeah, more money would be necessary. And buried deep in the story was this lil gem: “On Monday, G7 foreign ministers will discuss possible deliveries of longer-range missiles to Ukraine that could target Russian territory, EU foreign affairs representative Josep Borrell confirmed.” More strikes deeper inside Russia and people wonder why Russia will likely again boycot the sham “peace talks” being planned? About the only grown up in the room is the Czech president: Ukraine needs to be ‘realistic’ and give up territory to Russia, says Czech president (rmx.news). Yeah, the Russian-speaking part.
Amidst all this Wars in Middle East, Ukraine poised to dominate high-stakes UNGA. Well, along with the Summitt for the World Globalist power grab, too. Craziness abounds.
Short Snorts
Like a Deere caught in [media] headlights: Trump threatens tractor maker John Deere with 200% import tariff if it moves manufacturing to Mexico | Fortune. (Our Kubota was made on the Georgia assembly line near as we can tell…)
Maybe honesty is back in the Times? Democrats dis New York Times poll showing Trump gains.
Useful assertion to hear: Wikipedia Donations Go Toward Embedding Feminism And Racial Justice In World’s Largest Encyclopedia. One of these days I will trace the history of where this sexual, environmental crap came from. Short version is it’s a fall out of the 1976 Limits to Growth world model iterations by later researchers who threw their own ideas into the forecasting models and started using that as a justification for going crazy. The solution to the future that avoids complete and utter Global Collapse is really CT – comprehensive technology, but sex changes as an industry? Pass the nitrous, please.
At the Ranch: Our Missing Civil Defense
Not to poke sticks at FEMA but when was the last time you heard the term Civil Defense? Main writing on Peoplenomics.com tomorrow. Seems traitorous to us that liberal spending programs on socialist agenda items have taken a backseat to national survival.
Oh, and speaking of defense: Down in Florida Gov. DeSantis declares state of emergency for Tampa Bay counties, as Hurricane Helene looms.
Thankfully, the path of Helene seems nowhere near our place. but with only a tenth of an inch of rain – if that – in a couple of days, my well-tended lawn is now basically hay stubble.
Write when you get rich,
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