As our snap analysis indicated Wednesday, we believe one or both of the following conditions are true.
- The Fed has whored out responsible monetary policy to Politics. OR
- The Fed sees something very bad ahead – so far unmentionable.
Let’s back up. We’ll use Consumer Price Index Archived News Releases : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov). Inflation – all items less food and energy – which the Fed itself claims guides rate decisions – have been as follows:
- August: (most recent) 3.2 percent
- July 3.2 percent
- June 3.3 percent
- May 3.4 percent
It doesn’t take a dime store MBA to see that inflation reduction has stalled out. But if you need coincident indicators, let’s talk housing prices. In the most recent (June, there’s lag in data) the Case-Shiller/S&P housing report, we read:
“The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.4% annual gain for June, down from a 5.9% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 7.4%, down from a 7.8% annual increase in the previous month. “
Grandpa Powell’s blather about a 2 percent inflation rate is pure political poppycock, as we figure.
Even worse, the NY Fed’s regional Business Leader’s Survey that was posted Tuesday said:
“Business activity held steady in the New York-Northern New Jersey
region’s service sector in September, and employment growth slowed. While firms were somewhat more positive about the outlook than last month, optimism remained subdued.”
Look, I’ve been Fed Watching now since 1970 – and in a “normal course of things” the Fed might have done a quarter point. Yes, there is business whining about sales. (When isn’t there?). Yes, there’s a strike on at Boeing, and maybe one coming to the Port of Houston. Strikes come and go.
Has there been an uptick in the number of unemployed? Well, yeah, sort of.
If we look at the BLS database, we see some history to establish context:
And when we look at today’s hot-off-the-PDF picture, the claims weren’t too bad – and as you could see above, the rate came down in the most recent reporting month.
We are drawn to a conclusion we don’t like to voice: Fascism, the tie-up between a captive government and an interlocked corporate ruling class 0- seems to have swamped the Fed. With the exception of Governor Michelle Bowman. Bowman Dissent Over Cut Is First From a Fed Governor Since 2005. We applaud her being able to follow the numbers.
Pump & Dump Thursday?
Disclosure: Yes, I play markets a bit. My positions were up a bit at the close Wednesday, Overnight? I got hammered:
Only money, right? Besides, with commodity holdings (metals) there’s 1,579.50 in offsetting gains for the day. Which is why we don’t do all the eggs in one basket.
When we look at our Aggregate Index, you can see how there’s a huge-press to blow past resistance – but remember, the Bank of Japan meetings are going on today and bad news there could be shocking to markets. See, it’s expected the BoJ will hold, but if they do raise, then maybe the Fed dropping a half would make sense. Otherwise, this is a problem.
As you cqan see, there is a little gray box upper right. In Elliott terms, the market today is ready to challenge our old Aggregate High – which was set back on July 16th at 48,605.37. In the pre-open today, we’re sitting at 48,367.37…so we’re getting close. Really close.
I tend to ignore the intraday results because there is so much computer-to-computer warfare going on during the sessions. But the closes do matter. If we close today at a new high, then my own trading rules will dictate I book the loss and roll to a different instrument (to avoid a wash sale being disallowed down the road a bit).
BUT, I would not be surprised by a new high in here. You see, the high in 1929 was on September 3rd and the Crash come along at the end of October. About 55-days.
From the July 16th Aggregate high, we should have Crashed (on a 55-day basis) on September 9th. Came close: Going into the Friday before that Monday, we dropped more than 800 points in the Aggregate – a short play worked great.
Now, though, if the Aggregate closes above the Labor Day weekend level (267 points on the Aggregate higher from Wednesday’s close, so still a possibility) then we could still have a crash out in the 55-day range from Labor Day – which puts us around October 27th – which would be one hell of a Rhyme on ’29. OR, if today turns into a new all-time high then we wouldn’t crash until November 13th. In theory. Not advice.
A Conflicted future, Indeed!
If Ure’s logic on this seems a bit convoluted, it’s not, really.
You see, this is how Markets Tell the Future. As Dollar Gains in ‘Crucial Window’ Before BOE, BOJ Rate Decisions, we see a scant hope that the Fed has access to a Looking Glass Platform and knows how to use it to model a desired future.
For the rest of us (computationally limited) people, we have only the markets before us, and the 55-day marker from the Great Depression as a kind of yardstick.
IF the Aggregate doesn’t beat the Labor Day close today, an October 27th crash date wheels into view and that (in my thinking) would hugely increase the odds of China taking Taiwan literally within hours of BRICS in Moscow wrapping up.
If, on the other hand, we get a few days of higher highs now than July, then we don’t hit the Wall until November 13th.
Out there, we have three Life Disrupters waiting for us.
Final point, and this really points more in the direction of a November 13th crash date, as the growing odds of violent opposition to election results in the U.S. elections in November. Liberals in Boston are already giving voice to election fears in Readers are concerned about political violence. Here’s why. (boston.com) and in Ohio National lawyer group emphasizes election security, denounces violence | WVXU.
How are your dart tossing skills?
Lunacy Landings
Ready for a little screech and preach?
Going for the Deep Pockets: COVID Propaganda Roundup: Kansas AG Sues Pfizer For Rigging Clinical Trials (substack.com)
Could golf be a health risk to the Famous? The Leftist Institutional Machine behind the Trump Assassination Attempts – Dr. Rich Swier (drrichswier.com)
Ready to pay more taxes next year? Insurrection Barbie on X: “Steve Forbes tells you the truth about the awful economic policies of Kamala Harris. https://t.co/J88tnjgZ6k” / X. Fair bit of interesting content on the Insurrection Barbie X site. Didn’t Harris vote to make tips taxable
Price of Endorsing Trump? Ask Elon about this: Elon Musk threatens to sue after the FAA proposes launch penalties (chron.com).Penalties that are suspiciously coincident to Musk’s activism in unregulated (for now) life…
We don’t foresee Kentucky’s governor being re-elected after Dem Governor Unilaterally Makes It Illegal To Talk Kids Out Of Sex Changes.
“Mark of the Beast” is coming ‘We Should Absolutely Be Worried’: Google Testing New Digital ID for Google Wallet.”
National what day? Best National Cheeseburger Day Deals 2024 (today.com)
Around the Ranch: Travel – Ever Again?
As retired couples will, from time to time, Elaine and I sit around with some Italian Vitamin Juice in the afternoon in the 180 (degree view) Room and ponder things ahead in Life.
Word that US launches online passport renewal service got us on the topic of travel. The big problem is where to go, anymore. Never been to Europe, but under the current social structure there, not interested. South Pacific is a damn-long jet ride to what? Go swimming? We could join the local Y and do that if it were important or put in our own pool. r just shower and step outside to dry off… But that’d be just another thing to take care of. So, pass…
The Antarctic would be interesting, but we don’t have political suck points to get a landing pass so that’s off. Diving Lake Vostok would be interesting.
China? Maybe. But we’re pretty sure that could land us on a “list” somewhere. India? Got no interest. Tibet? Well, yeah, that would be interesting, maybe. I have peanut allergies so Traveling in Nepal with nut allergies : r/Nepal (reddit.com) was useful. Again, save the miles.
Been to Peru’s ruins already, Canada? Check. Hawaii? Uh huh.
Eventually, if the age reversal diets work out, we have thought about buying another sailboat. Live in Corpus in the winters and head for lobster land over summers and do the fright seeing along the East Coast on the Intercoastal – that might be interesting.
Or, get a couple of canoes and come down the Mississippi…something like that.
For now, until we get through to next spring and can size up the future a little better, maybe the best place to stay is wherever you are right now.
Write when it all makes sense,
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