“Markets don’t go down forever” is a commonly used financial saying. Usually offered as condolences by some still well-off by-stander with no skin in the game. Empathy is easy when no tuition is due.
We’re up only a bit over 9 percent this month. And we haven’t been trading the past two days. (Maybe next week.) Still, the charts appear (and this is not trading advice) to be moving in the direction we predicted months back, although events have been very slow getting here.
In our Aggregate Index work, the blue arrow is gone, but you can still see the market unwinding toward the top of the long-term green trend channel here:
The two next logical steps to this likely Major 3 down will be either a) a fake out rally back above the 85-day moving average line next week, or we will go down to the green upper trend channel and then rally just ahead of the Fed pronouncements on the 18th.
We don’t particularly care which way it goes.
The One Ugly Secret We’ll Share
You would think after more than 50-years of financial (and other) reporting, there would be one piece of “ground truth” that I see people missing. There is and I’m going to give you a Ure Axiom for your book.
“Markets can go to heaven or hell and you can make just as much money, either way. The trick comes down to only getting one thing right: The direction to be traded.”
In other words, like the Professor of Chance taught me in Las Vegas back in 1970, “If you’re going to make important money, you have to wager important money.” Do this enough times – until you get a good grubstake – and then push back from the table. We have been, thereby, living happily ever after for more than 20-years in th woods.
I don’t know if I have met a “poor person” yet who wasn’t risk-averse or outright lazy. But happiness doesn’t fall out of the sky on most people. You have to mine it, refine it, wine it, and dine it. This is the time of day when The Truth about people becomes apparent. If they can’t leap out of bed and get after it, the payoff tables quickly turn against them.
Somehow that’s revelatory.
Jobs Data
IF you insist on working for someone else, this will matter more than if you put some effort into creating “Your own brand to ride for…” Here’s the latest thrill of the shills:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care.
In the Labor Database this morning, the number of people getting jobs in the latest month was actually a lot stronger than the headline – 268-thosuand. (No rate drop?)
And the CES Birth-Death Model (estimating jobs in and out of existence) claimed… (these are in thousands) for any increase this month was – all in estimated jobs!
Next week shapes up in an orderly way. No real big breaking news in the planned headlines for Monday. But a war here, a war there, and that could end up in a brick wall somewhere. Tuesday the NFIB optimism read is out. There could be some action Wednesday when the new inflation numbers roll – this will be the last official numbers before Rate Day a week from next Wednesday.
As of this morning, by the way, there’s still a 61 percent majority expecting the rates to hold. We have no idea whether the Fed will lower rates – the final decision might not be in yet, but after next Wednesday, we should see things crystalize around the central tendency. And then the market will piss away the next several trading days doing either a “buy the rumor to sell the news” or “sell the rumor and buy the news.” At this macro head-tripping level, I’m inclined to expect some “buy the rumor” because (on the off chance they lower) it will set of an economic decline which will bleed into the next year.
We should still be two weeks out from super-elevated risk of first use of nukes by anyone. But we wouldn’t put it past the neocons – lapdogs of the Owners – to attempt a false flag horror show in the coming two or three weeks. That’s because there needs to be a credible scapegoat installed so that people will accept that it was nukes – not a completely hypothecated global financial system – blowing up that caused all the global misery…
Speaking of Hypothecates
Barfcoins were trying to claw back over $57,000 after falling to the $55,380 level overnight.
If you are still a True Believer, has a look at US Bitcoin ETFs hit 7-day losing streak, outflows surpass $1 billion (cryptobriefing.com) if you’re still on the sauce rom last night.
Still need some “hair of the dog?” How’s about Is This Why Bitcoin’s Price Continues to Decline? (cryptopotato.com).
Pitiful Parents Department?
We don’t like to be judgy, but just notice two parents making headlines over their children’s behavior in these:
The (alleged) will be in Federal court shortly.
The Meh Files
(Bring your own hecklefish. I don’t need one – I’m married…)
Not sure if this is a cartography error, or what: South Korea, Japan ‘ready to stop North Korea hiding behind Russia’. then there’s North Korea and the 13 Disappearing Submarines.
Rogan’s got common sense: The Vigilant Fox ? on X: “Joe Rogan to Climate Czars: “F—k You!” This blunt message comes in response to the fact that the proposed solutions to solve the “climate crisis” somehow end up being “all profitable.” “I think it’s completely unfair if you’re still https://t.co/pgD2uq4Cmx” / X
Guts Medicine solidifies as the next Big thing as Parkinson’s may begin in the gut, study says, adding to growing evidence.
And hey, anything to go viral, am I right? 93-Year-Old Great-Grandmother Allegedly Beaten to Death with Hatchet by Two 13-Year-Old Girls – The Published Reporter
Around the Ranch: Death of the Desktop
I sent a note up to my consigliere Thursday – with links to the two “mini computers” we have rolled over into for everything major around here. One of them is this one (the Big One) while this is the small (and cheap under $200) version.
Near as I can figure it, I’ll never buy another Desktop. The reason is really two-fold. First is that desktops are bulky and ungainly. But the real point is flexibility. There are so many things that you can do with a USB 3.2 port that it means the desktop has become almost obsolete.
We still have one in the music studio, but the only reason there is I have the 1394 firewire to go into the mixer console. But even here, the world is in process of rolling over into 3.2 for everything. With a Desktop, once you put in an optical drive, for example, you’re done. But if you want a second drive, well, then the USB ports come into play anyway. Plus, the power supplies are simple with a lot of the smaller minicomputers. I don’t like having to pay $100 plus for a PSU when I can get the same thing from a small one-size-fits all block with a voltage switch on it.
Point I’m getting to is that for a lot of applications, the small minicomputers are a great solution and are definitely worth a look. Especially when you can find BIG multiple terabytes drives on the cheap.
Yagi, Brisqi, and Frisky
Ham radio corner: Say, here’s a monster Yagi with an amazing turning radius for you: Super Typhoon Yagi threatens southern China, Vietnam.
Might get the new K4TR “Senior” W5GI up this weekend. The antenna gets good reviews and we covered the SWR view of the “junior” in a ShopTalk article back when? (Toward bottom of page). I’m looking forward to getting the 40-meter gain so I can talk with my friend Michael up in the East Bay.
Brisqi? Up early this morning getting the next few days of work planned out in Brisqi. Mentioned it to you before, but it’s a kan-ban style to do list and event he free version of quite excellent (Ash has done a fine job on it). Brisqi – Offline-first Personal Kanban App
Frisky: Went in for my follow-up blood pressure check. 132/70 and the heart was still beating occasionally. Today, the blood pressure will be challenged again – going on a grocery run.
Hungry: Leftover spaghetti and meat sauce – which is one of the best meals out there. Enough carbs to power the day but also enough protein to keep you going. No sugar, other than the noodles.
Shopping days are a fun break from the kitchen work for us. When the bread is fresh from the bakery, the deli meats just sliced, pickles topped up, and some pre-made chicken noodle soup, we like to have this one “Sandwich night” every couple of weeks. Hard to beat soup and sandwiches.
Off to rock the weekend – write when you get rich. And don’t forget that $500!
Read the full article here
