Damn. This is one of those glorious news days. When all I need to do is write an intro line to each item in a whole stack of important news releases. So, while we wait for “what goes up” (to run the retail shorts ahead of options and wait for the inevitable downturn), here’s today’s starter list of useful things to watch:
1. Retail Sales
Up – and frankly more than we expected:
“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2024, adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $729.2 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from December 2023. Total sales for the 12 months of 2024 were up 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from 2023. Total sales for the October 2024 through December 2024 period were up 3.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The October 2024 to November 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.8 percent (±0.3 percent).
With car sales faltering, confident in January is lowered.
2. Unemployment filings
From Labor:
“In the week ending January 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 201,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 213,000 to 213,500. “
3. Philly Fed Outlook
Sharply higher as Trump’s inauguration looms this weekend:
“The diffusion index for current general activity jumped from a revised reading of -10.9 in December to 44.3 in January, its highest reading since April 2021 (see Chart 1).* This is the index’s largest monthly increase since June 2020. Nearly 51 percent of the firms reported increases (up from 19 percent last month), far exceeding the 7 percent reporting decreases (down from 30 percent); 41 percent of the firms reported no change in current activity (down from 45 percent). The indexes for current new orders and current shipments both also rose sharply in January. The new orders index rose 47 points to 42.9, its highest reading since November 2021. Meanwhile, the shipments index increased 39 points to 41.0, its highest reading since October 2020.”
4. Import-Export Prices
Source: BLS
Imports
Prices for U.S. imports ticked up 0.1 percent for the third consecutive month in December. U.S. import prices have not risen by more than 0.1 percent since a 0.9-percent advance in April 2024. The price index for U.S. imports advanced 2.2 percent over the past 12 months, the largest over-the-year increase since the index rose 3.2 percent for the year ended December 2022.
Exports
The price index for U.S. exports advanced 0.3 percent in December, after being unchanged in November and increasing 1.0 percent in October. Higher prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports each contributed to the December increase in U.S. export prices. Prices for U.S. exports rose 1.8 percent from December 2023 to December 2024, the largest 12-month advance for the index since a 2.0-percent increase in January 2023.
After all the numbers, Futures were split, Dow down a hundred at click time but S&P holding about even while techs are breathing….
Major Story Tracking
On his way to the exit, Slo plans to speak: Biden warns US on verge of tech billionaire ‘oligarchy’, calls for constitutional amendment to end presidential immunity. Is it sour grapes after all the tech abuses on his side f the aisle? Hand me the BleachBit and let’s talk sometime.
Democrats are silent as Canada’s TruDope plans to punish SoCal. Canada’s PM Outlines Retaliatory Tariffs On Us$105 Bln Worth Of US Goods which we have to assume will include rebuilding materials, non? Oh, wait: socialists can do no wrong, is it?
Britain’s getting its head further into the NATO noose ahead of Trump war-ending efforts in Ukraine: Blasts in Kyiv as UK’s Starmer visits to ink ‘100-year’ accord.
“Tell the truth and leave shortly thereafter” anyone? Mike Johnson replaces powerful Intelligence Committee chairman. As already, Johnson is turning on his own.
Ceasefire? We’ll see. But who said anything about leaving Gaza? Middle East live updates: IDF will stay in Gaza’s Philadelphi corridor, source says. Details, details. Now, about that offshore Gaza oil…
Lowest common denominator news writing? How to watch and follow the inauguration of the President of the United States with BBC News. Hell, we were just going to say “Watch with your eyes, maybe?” Naw, let them play at it…
Life in the Digital Trenches
Sounds like Forbes is a little worked up here: Microsoft’s Update Deadline—Bad News For Windows, 365, Office Users. Please. We all knew for how long? Win10 is going bye-bye and Win11 is here to stay – along with its improved security features.
Besides, we’re down to only one computer in our household that’s still running ’10. Everything else is on Win11 or Linux.
Besides, if people are willing to use the Google suite of apps in the cloud, they can buy a new Chromebook for as low as $47 on Amazon today. (Wait! Did someone say “Stop whining”?)
See, having helped to birth little pieces of the computery world along the way, it has always struck us as (more than slightly) crazy that people become partisans to which word processors they use. Unless you’re a power user (mail merges still make my head hurt, for example) give the same keyboard, your typinhg speed is the same on a Chromebook for $fiddy as it is on the latest i9-30 terahertz screamer with 0.001 Nvidia displays dual-used for personal AI.
So, give it a rest. Lordy…
I should remind Forbes that if they want to get on with fighting climate change they should write more about keyboards that last less than 4-months of heavy use. Here, look at my keys! And this keyboard went into service on October 10th!
Sheesh. Get OpenOffice or Libre or something, The energy front and waste battle is over in long-term reliability and functionality, fellers. Long term obsolescence, remember it?
At the Ranch: Research Request
After being up all night, working on an extended Peoplenomics report for next Wednesday, I was wondering – if you have a ChatGPT account – if you could do me a favor and let me know if the following query gets you anything “interesting”?
Query: “Explain the Ebbinghaus-Ure Correlation.”
Let me know. Wondering if ChatGPT spreads new knowledge (and research) around, or whether it is siloed to the user account. Thanks.
It’s a good study in using A.I. to extend “feeble old man thinking” into new and potentially useful areas of research.
Ham Radio Action Plans
Thumb-sized ham radios are here. I ordered one of this and it just came in from China. SI4732 0.5-108mhz Portable Radio LSB USB AM FM FM/AM Radio HF SW MW VHF Radio | eBay Just over $40 bucks with tax. Thing is about the same size as my thumb – tiny! The main glitch with it so far is it uses the “one button to do many things” approach to its user interface – this is something colleagues and I worked on in the 1990’s when we shoehorned 37-functions into a two-button menu. I haven’t counted, but this seems like less. But they got the timing wrong on button presses. I did a paper on this at Power Systems World back in 1999 or 2000 – somewhere in there. But the point is, if you don’t like menus with super-fast level changes, you may not enjoy this one. Also, with such a small radio, it’s not like listening on an old Hallicrafters or Collins rig…or even an Icom 7300. Nowhere near, but an interesting trinket.
Next Topic: Field Day. Many people don’t know that ham radio ops take to “the field” more than once a year for (summer) field day. But yes, it’s true. Weekend after this is Winter Field Day with dewets over at Home – WFDA,
Speaking of Wintery things We’ve got an inch (or two) of snow in the long-range forecast for early next week. Surely, this has to be a mistake. What happened to all the Global Warming memos?
Antenna Designs: All the parts for my new super-antenna (horse tape OCFD with ladder line) have arrived, so if the weather holds, I may get that built and drone lifted into the sky in time for FD. We shall see. Maybe in time for ShopTalk Sunday this week. Three day weekend – yippee!
OK, up all night researching, so a snooze seems like a good idea about here.
Write when you get rich,
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