Early today, the Futures were pricing in a good-sized decline. Dow Futures at 7 AM Eastern were down about 170 and it looked like the S&P and NASDAQ were on similar pathing for four-tenths of a percent drops.
Meanwhile, after hitting $106,490 Tuesday, Bitcoins had fallen to the mid $95,000’s.
While the market continues to “tell a good story” – about sugarplum fairies and all that – the technical issue in our Aggregate Index chart hasn’t gone away. Not by a long stretch:
As you can see (squint, if you need to) in the upper right-hand side of the chart, the A.I. Bull has a problem. There has been considerable on-balance selling of core market holdings for a good while now. And that top – where we bumped into the underside of the trend channel?
That came eight days ago – at 52,470.42. We have circled December 16th as a possible high. Obviously, writing about finance (since 1970) you begin to see the foolishness of “top calling”. Still, it’s a fun sport and anyone with a website and a decent retirement strategy can play all the way to the cemetery.
Having disavowed all that, even broken clocks get to be right twice a day. So in the spirit of broken clockworks, we have also put a circle 55-days out – which falls February 9, 2025.
As I look at the chart now? There is a (weak) case that we may be finishing a minor 2 up from an initial minor 1 down from the (so far) all-time high. Which could land us back at the bottom of a minor 3 down in short order. Which logically would get us to around January 20th, or so.
Why Down – Then What?
Market prices, like the tall pines here in the East Texas piney woods, are always whispering something about the Future. But what exactly, is always the problem.
Today, we can see a Constitutional Crisis if Mike Johnson is not retained – at least for a while – as Speaker of the House. See, as this Newsweek headline explains it, the House has two critical jobs to get done in the next 10-days. First is the swearing in of new members, and then is Certifying the Election – as the results are/were scheduled to be delivered and ratified on January 6th. Republicans Fear Speaker Battle Means They ‘Can’t Certify the Election’.
You can almost see how one possible future could lay out: A decline, starting now, until this latest penny-dreadful faux drama is wound up (about Jan 8th would be nice – in tears to the minor 3 down). The resolution of which would be cause for a minor wave 4. Then an almost predictable “Inaugural scare” to lead in to a low point ahead of January 2oth.
The next thing would be? Well, plug in a wave 2 up on the Inauguration going well. But then – with Trump on duty – expect Netanyahu to overplay his hand (frightening markets a great deal) and possibly leading into the start of a larger 3 down.
This is an interesting game to play, made all the more exciting when playing with real (such as it is) money.
But Bigger Problems Loom
One of these is that longshore strike. With only a couple of weeks to run until the cooling-off ends – Jan. 15th – our reliance on port workers has never been higher. A week back this was underscored in Asia-US container rates climb in latest Freightos index.
Then there’s the special interests and A.I. takes on 2025. Climate-mongers are solidly in control of the UN 5 GLOBAL ISSUES TO WATCH IN 2025 | unfoundation.org which include war and climate.
Reader LOOB had a good list in a post he picked up over here.
For now, though, we’re as worried about “the little things” as the big ones. Given a real interest rate of 4 percent, the additional debt for the 161-million workers in America – due on our oversized National Debt will be the uglier of two numbers.
- Truth in Accounting pegs the basic National Debt at $36.6 trillion (plus or minus a hot buttered rum). Four percent on this pushes out to 1.464-trillion in interest charges alone. $9,093 per worker, per year just to break-even.
- In Ure’s world, however, there is a much larger number. That’s the total debt owed, plus all that unforgivable interest that must be paid, as well. This morning that’s around $157.844 trillion. That’s more than $6.3 trillion of interest accumulating. Which means that just to hold things even, workers will need to contribute $39,216 per worker. And that is before your expenses to live and existing federal income taxes.
To our simple-minded way of looking at thing? The only solution is to run Bitcoin up to over a million dollars each, then have the government make digital money (that competes with the Dollar and whatever the central bank digital currency is, when that unicorn is born…). At which point, crypto is all confiscated (like gold and silver in the Great Depression) and applied to zero out the National Debt.
A finer swindle has seldom been seen, but it would be a dandy.
Well, except for the fact that China would not accept a few (hopelessly hard to crack, for now) digital signatures as “payment”. Because a handful of countries have dug in their heels. Banned countries include:
- China
- Pakistan
- Saudi Arabia
- Tunisia
- Bolivia
But all the Central Banksters are working the margins trying to scam together a workable central bank digital currency.
- Many countries are exploring central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and some have already launched them:
- The Bahamas: Launched the world’s first CBDC, the Sand Dollar, in 2019. The Sand Dollar was intended to help improve financial inclusion and security.
- Jamaica: Launched a CBDC.
- Nigeria: Launched a CBDC in October 2021.
- El Salvador: Adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021 to promote financial inclusion and job creation. The country also launched Chivo Wallet, an app that allows users to pay peers and firms, and make deposits and withdrawals in both U.S. dollars and Bitcoin.
European Union: Proposing a legal framework for a digital euro. - Canada, Brazil, and the United States: Have concrete plans to launch a CBDC.
- Russia, Thailand, India, South Korea, Sweden, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia: Are in a CBDC pilot phase.
- Other countries that are exploring CBDCs include: China, The euro area, and The United Kingdom.
As we have always held, the only TRUE money in the world are the basics like land, food, water, and energy. At the second level are the “universal commodities” like uranium, gold, silver, and the PGM (platinum metals group).
Our thinking continues to be that eventually it will all circle back to the urgent consumables (food and water) so we (quite stupidly, for now) keep working on our 30-acres for food and water. And when we find a good deal on solar panels, we add them to the inventory, too. Because over time you can’t eat gold and silver. Or even more importantly, you can’t eat crypto and it won’t survive in the EMP world that will result from the global war when all countries are trying to stiff each other on “My CBDC is better than your CBDC…”
Where we all go? In time it will have to flutter down to a modern retooling of Feudalism, which frankly, can be done (to some degree and within tax law) at the local level. What the (mutha) WEF’ers aren’t telling you is that eating bugs “and you’ll be happy” is what digital feudalism will look like. Except for the odd lord or country vassal who sees it coming before the herd. Admittedly, 30-acres is a small fief. But, bigger than most. Cobble up some used mobile homes with well-defined gardens, take a share of the crops in lieu of rent for a portion (since ownership is outright) and you begin to get the picture.
Or not.
Oh, Look! Jobless Claims…
…for the week are just out:
Train Wreck on Parade
OK, not a train then: What Happened Over Russia? Probe Into Fatal AZAL Crash in Kazakhstan Begins. Was it a missile that didn’t miss? Russia being blamed for Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed hundreds of miles off course, killing dozens. But we take this with a salt lick…Russia warns against ‘hypotheses’ in Azerbaijan Airlines crash.
Traveling by air? Here’s a TSA confidence-builder for you: Three People Shot at Phoenix Airport: What We Know.
Give her my address: Dear Abby: I feel used after giving my ‘best friend’ money for her and her boyfriend.
Ah, Duck soup? South Korea prime minister Han Duck-soo faces impeachment motion. (rim-shot)
Around the Ranch: Reading it Write
Since neither of us wanted anything for Christmas, other than the delish pork tenderloin I made in the air fryer with a glass of Paisano, I decided to get into the spirit of the day by spending money.
A new Kindle 11 will land here tomorrow. the one with 128 gigs of memory for my 900-some books. And no ads, thanks.
Since there’s a novel due to fly out of these fingers in 2025, I’ve been shortcut shopping:
More generic additions this week included:
This last one was only a buck and change…pretty good read though most of it is obvious or already-known by aware humans.
I keep going back to G.W. Franke’s book (another reader): Forbidden Cosmology: Uncovering the Ultimate Connection (Complete Cosmic Energy Exchange Concept, CCEEC). I keep wanting to say he’s wrong but trying to craft a reply hasn’t hung together yet.
And with our ShopTalk Sunday series in mind, The Tools and Materials of the Watchmaker – A Guide to the Amateur Watchmaker’s Toolkit – Including How to make your own Tools has been useful.
Since reading is a major time-sink, and since Clif High’s (original, breakthrough Vortex Reader) isn’t around, I have been using Swift Read and you might want to take a look at it, if gobbling up huge amounts of information is what you do.
The Pro version is $60 a year. Hope Clif kept up his patent on the technology but the good idea is still out there.
Write when you get rich, have time, or are struck by the world-saving idea!
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