Two things are moving along as expected around here: The market rallied like we projected Monday. And computer issues came out and snagged us. This latter was not so much an expectation so much as a kind of “feels due” event.
I suppose, lacking any real news to talk about (except be sure and pick up a MegaMillions ticket because they payoff is up to something like $800-million now) there’s not much going on.
Well, except money, dammit – there’s always money “stuff.”
Small Business in Alignment
We have too many mega corps in the world, in our view. We shouldn’t really need many businesses with more than a billion or so of revenue. Because (from our observations) when businesses get too big, they only care about making money and not the simple serving of the needs of the People. They also spawn a class of elite pricks who ignore the rest of us.
Sure, there are some arguments that you need big business. But, to our way of thinking, not really. What you need are bite-sized agile companies that can do things effectively. Does Elon Musk need to become ONE GIANT? Nope. PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX – all serial companies. Sure, they are big, but in diversity comes resilience. Maybe a billion is too small, but you get the point.
Anyway (this was going somewhere) the point is the closer to home companies are, the more the world they experience is like the world the rest of us suffer through.
Which is why the National Federation of Independent Business Optimism readings are a kind of reality check on what the news has “felt like” over the past month.
“WASHINGTON, D.C. (Sept. 10, 2024) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.5 points in August to 91.2, erasing all of July’s gain. This is the 32nd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose to 92, its highest level since October 2020. Inflation remains the top issue among small business owners, with 24% of owners reporting it as their top small business operating issue, down one point from July.
“The mood on Main Street worsened in August, despite last month’s gains,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Historically high inflation remains the top issue for owners as sales expectations plummet and cost pressures increase. Uncertainty among small business owners continues to rise as expectations for future business conditions worsen.”
Key findings include:
- The frequency of reports of positive profit trends was a net negative 37% (seasonally adjusted), seven points worse than in July and the lowest since March 2010.
- Twenty-four percent of owners reported inflation as their single most important problem in operating their business, down one point from July.
- The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell nine points in August to a net negative 18% (seasonally adjusted). Real sales volume expectations were the largest contributor to the decline in the Optimism Index along with earning trends and expected business conditions.
- A seasonally adjusted net 20% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, up two points from July.
- The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell two points from July to a net 20% seasonally adjusted
Also notable is that 40 percent of respondents couldn’t find qualified people willing to work at existing job openings.
The Digital Rapture
This gets to a key point a learned colleague and I have been batting around the past several days. Namely that we have so many young people who have already done the “digital Rapture” and are now living purely inside their heads – coming down from the Cloud only long enough to take meals and do nastygrams on Social and they “Poof!” – are up and away again doing whatever goes on up there…
“Spiritual Money” Too
Money evolved from chits – given to owners of grain – who stored their wealth in granaries back bazillions ago. There was some loss and there was some fraud, as any system with money involved will generate. Here in modern times, we have nothing behind money in general – and digital wealth in particular. As Bitcoin has clawed back over the $57.000 level again today, the Bitcoin Nazi is sneering again in Ure’s direction screaming “No Bitcoin for Ure!”
I mean I get that. But don’t people from Pennsyltucky know how to read? Let’s to some remediating, shall we?
We don’t see it, but we don’t see a lot of things, I guess.
The Future on Parade
The big deal anymore is not making money. The Big Deal is preparing for Urban Survival. Because the Future will be along all too soon.
Tomorrow morning the inflation report will hit. If there’s another spike up in the core rate the Fed looks at – the one without food and energy prices (which we know is absurd, but they hold the nation’s money hostage) – and if it shows even a twitch to the upside the view will be things are “good enough” that rates don’t/won’t have to come down.
That lil grenade goes off a week from 2 PM (eastern) tomorrow when the FOMC pops.
War Follows
Meanwhile, in the back room, the minions of the real powers (the neocon minions) are doing their damnedest to get World War III rolling. Again, we are steadfast in our Sept 21-October 10 range for China to pull off an air and sea embargo of Taiwan. No doubt, Chinese president Xi will be more than a tad pissed that Taiwan exports to US surpass China in August. And what’s more Taiwan was making the Harvard Crimson today with Taipei City Mayor Discusses National Security, Future of Taiwan at IOP Forum.
In fact, Taiwan is becoming such a Big Deal that U.S. states are lining up to install trade missions there. Taiwan hails Indiana trade office as boost to bilateral ties. You will have to pass the vise grips on this one because for the life of me, I can’t figure out what would be an office supporting a bilateral trade tie-up between that state and that country. Maybe the coffee just hasn’t kicked in? Pork for Processors?
More War Plans
Neocons haven’t stopped doing their best to kick off World War III before the election, so we can skip the contentious balloting processes. In fact, overnight, the Ukrainians were coached into attacking near Moscow. A couple of versions of the story are worth reading: A woman is killed near Moscow as over 140 Ukrainian drones target Russia, officials say with a similar tune played in Ukraine attacks Russia with 144 drones, killing one and closing airports.
Frankly, the frenzy of the attacks has left no one in the West talking about peace talks – the sham talks this summer (which didn’t include Russia) predictably went nowhere. But I suppose that was the point: let’s all pretend peace matters (while passing out billions in defense contracts to pump up employment ahead of the likely to be canceled…oh, let’s not go there).
In fact, the only time Ukraine gets interested in “peace talks” is when they are getting butts whipped. Ukrainian Support for Peace Talks Rises After Counteroffensive Setbacks. Nothing especially new in the conduct of war there, however.
The only place we could find hopeful signs of actual peace talks was between rebels and the government in Colombia. Where the coca revenues and control have been central. Colombian Government, Rebel Group to Resume Peace Talks. In Havana, no less.
Speakin of “Blow to Go”
We have Francine now in the Gulf of Mexico:
We will get a passing wet spot tomorrow, but hardly enough to mention.
Junk from the Trunk
A super-size of slop and glop from most of the other news sources. I’m so sick of political bullshit I could spew. When you take out that crap, there’s actually very little going on: high taxes are coming, the border is still open, Woke is a Joke and Climate is broke, and…
Oh, yeah, mail in ballots are fraught with fraud says the Heartland Institute: Collin Rugg on X: “REPORT: 20% of mail-in ballots were fraudulent in the 2020 election according to a study conducted by the Heartland Institute. The study was referenced by Donald Trump over the weekend who received backlash for making the claim. According to the Heartland Institute’s Justin https://t.co/KBBgHAn40U” / X. Oh, please, don’t pretend you didn’t know…
One reason for the last of political news is that the Left owned media doesn’t have much to sell now that Trump is back surging in the polls: Go check out InteractivePolls on X: “#Latest @NateSilver538 Forecast (9/9) ? Trump: 64.4% (new high) ? Harris: 35.3% —— Swing States: chance of winning Pennsylvania – ? Trump 65-35% Michigan – ? Trump 55-45% Wisconsin – ? Trump 53-47% Arizona – ? Trump 77-23% North Carolina – ? Trump 76-24% Georgia – ? https://t.co/Cw23W9WmSK” / X
The implosion of politics has continued at other levels, as well: California Democratic state senator Marie Alvarado-Gil defects to Republican Party/ And did you read the one about the reason this long-time democrat jumped parties? Can’t make this up: Female Calif. state senator allegedly forced male staffer to perform sex acts: lawsuit. Then she jumped parties? Why do I get the idea that that GOP ought to have a membership review committee?
At the Ranch: Another PC Swap
Fortunately, I remembered to turn on Microsoft’s backup tools long enough to get a useful snag of my new computer recently. Because last night I ran Wise Registry Cleaner and deleted some (*turned out to be) critical files.
Now I have to spend an hour or two going back in and restoring the registry because with the missing files, the (old) new computer won’t boot.
But, the good news? (Yes, there is some…) There is a column this morning because my new minicomputer (gen 13 screamer) was able to completely restore over Starlink in under an hour. So, worst case, all I have to do is download Office365 with settings and the email will be working again and putting in a few other items and everything will be golden.
Still, kind of disconcerting at 4 AM when I was all hot to write to find out that the new PC would not boot and wouldn’t even do the system recover and not even a reset. Sheesh!
The Major’s son passed (no sweat) his PhD. dissertation proposal defense Monday. (I never got that far and didn’t realize this is a two-part deal: First you defend th4e research proposal (yesterday) and then he does all the actual work and then (in April) when the work is done, he defends the finished product.
Which means another tough week ahead out there. The good news is that he’s got all the required blessings now and will likely be promoted to Ltc. before Christmas. And then teaching at the academy for four years – with likely a year in a research facility. Really interesting track for the nation’s best and brightest.
Then there’s the rest of us…chop words carry water.
Got a coat of Penofin on the new deck Monday. Also ordered a load of deck railing build materials, so that will be along in a week, or so.
Never stops does it? With an hour and seven minutes to write the column today…
Oh, and mention the Futures have turned solidly higher, which we told you yesterday would be the most-likely dance card ahead of the inflation numbers tomorrow.
Write when you get rich,
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