There are three very troubling observations in our data, today.
The first is the outsized influence of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks on the indices. While “the Q’s” have been smoking, we are seeing telltale (long-lead time) speculations like Are the Magnificent Seven doomed to underperform in 2025?
With the Fed meeting today, and a rate decision tomorrow, we judge it about an even-bet as to whether the much ballyhooed quarter point cut can be allowed.
The Fed misled (OK, lied, then) about holding out for a 2 percent core inflation rate before cutting rates. Which gives financial policy a cast of pure political BS to support the “old paradigm”. Code for the constellation of democrats, serial wars, excessive government, open borders, and that whole SynGro (synthetic growth) business model of national survival that is beginning to take down Europe.
A Fed surprise (like no cut) would, as we see things, slash markets and give the war party talking points about “How dangerous Trump is...” for whenever they find a viable candidate to rep their own party.
Canada on the Brink
Modern Authoritarian Governments haven’t been doing well lately. For most Canadians, the policy train wreck revealed in the Trucker’s Strike – and the disregard for people’s rights to protest – has an eerie harmony with the US War Party Jan 6th political repression.
What’s moved Canada to “the Brink” is people (globally) are beginning to use Power of Big Numbers to say “We won’t stand for this, anymore!” The Internet is the new Tower of Babel.
Canada has a problem – and with the naming of Trudeau to lead the G-7 – incompetence is becoming contagious. Elon Musk calls Justin Trudeau ‘insufferable tool’ and we all, I suspect, know he’s an authoritarian lefty.
But it doesn’t take a judgment call from Musk to make Trudeau the tool. Canada’s finance minister resigns as Trudeau deals with declining popularity | AP News. Already, there is talk of elections and by our reckoning, Trudeau would likely lose. The GlobalPop is wising up to lying leaders. And for the Liars in Place, people who talk freedom and deliver the whip, we may be seeing additional ripples leading to more GlobalRev actions.
Achtung! Revolution is in the Air
Were Canada alone, that would be one thing. But, it’s not.
German Government Collapses at a Perilous Time for Europe is going on right now. With stories about labeling Olaf Scholz labelled ‘the low point in history of modern Germany’ amid confidence vote, we are going to have to get a bigger “toolbox” to put on the recently outed “tools” in.
The German “control paradigm” collapse (Germany’s Scholz loses confidence vote, paving way for elections) comes shortly on the heels of a failed inside coup attempt in the past few weeks in South Korea, as well. We trust you saw South Korean President Impeached by Legislature After Self Coup Attempt?
Next as we ‘pull hot turnovers’ out of the oven, there’s the Syria mess to inspect, as well. Another government falling in the past two weeks. Syria after the Assads: What’s next for dictator and his family wealth. How the Russians were involved is covered a bit in The secret talks between Syria’s new leaders and the Kremlin. Just remember, Russia wants to keep Tartus on the northern Syrian coast; they don’t have much in the way of warm water ports.
The U.S. (runaway) National Security State continues attempting to goad Russia into first use of a nuke. Latest is to kill an important Russian general in the vicinity of Moscow. Igor Kirillov: Russian general in charge of nuclear protection forces killed in Moscow explosion – BBC News.
And let’s not forget Georgia (the country): Georgia is Russia’s legit area-of-interest: what is the EU trying to do there? The answer is simple: It’s the US National Security apparatuswith the EU trying to open another front because Ukraine is not going very well. Add victim countries or die financially.
Somewhere, along in here, you ought to be seeing that we have the makings of a GlobalRev. People want their countries back and, squinting in just a certain ay, you can see the local tribes of humans around the world pushing back on the One World Order which includes the neocons, the National Security State, the WEF’ers, and the U.N.
Line it all up: Canada, NATO, Germany, Ukraine, Georgia, Syria, South Korea and severe governance issues for the EU. Sure, there’s the war angle to all of it. But I’m sensing something else. A global connected rising consciousness which will – shortly, I fear – lead to strict governmental controls of free speech which is already “dead and buried” in Canada and the UK.
What becomes predictable? G.A. Stewart has spent decades deciphering Nostradamus works, Clif High’s work on “alien” sightings has been useful, as well.
We seem to be “down-gapping” right now. Where the space/delta between the lookahead tools and the flow of headlines is narrowing.
New Jersey Down-Gap
Skeptics of “look-ahead technologies” can say all they want. But Donald Trump canceled a trip to New Jersey and we see how there is some “dirty bomb fear” floating as what are likely NEST teams have been looking for some missing radioactive waste material.
That doesn’t stop the buzz, of course: Strange lights and ‘drones’ reported in West Virginia and Virginia.
The most credible idea, to date, is government looking for lost radioactive materials, though. Radioactive material went missing in New Jersey shipment, Nuclear Reglatory report shows. As coincidences go, this was pretty interesting in its timing of release, too: New IAEA Publication on the Security of Nuclear and Other Radioactive Material in Transport | IAEA.
Still, lots of unexplained.
But the Global Disruptions with all the “shakeups in country government” have our attention now as a possible battlefront between regular, freedom-seeking humans and the Security State Cooperative (More than 5-Eyes).
In general economic terms: Compound interest is piling up on authoritarians and they need additional power and control to exact more tribute (taxes). What they miss are two points from my recent book The 100-Year Toaster. We live in a global economic system based on low workmanship, high resource depletion, and useless activity under the guise of “useful work.”
In such a world, it’s easy to get confused. But no, “work” behind Bitcoin is not transferable, divisible, and durable. It’s a secret number made up to stuff more “play money” into an economic system already past its Popping Point.
What happens next should be amusing, to say the least.
OBV and Mag-7 Jits
Let’s begin with the Retail Sales figures just out from Census:
“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.6 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from November 2023. Total sales for the September 2024 through November 2024 period were up 2.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2024 to October 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.5 percent (±0.1 percent).
Saved again by the Auto industry? Well, yah…
If you’re wondering how this game is played, look at car prices over the past several years – they have been screaming ahead of inflation. So it makes “retail sales” pop, following?
Just ahead of the Census press release, the markets were braced for a bit of downside:
In light of these, we have to discuss some of the Old School ways to invest in stocks. Dow Theory is one. Under it, the Dow Transport Index (^DJT) tends to collapse first, leading the rest of the market down. The Dow Transports have been falling since Thanksgiving.
Another theory (Joe Granville was the champion of this view) is called On-Balance Volume. More money is flowing out of Dow equities than in, presently. The bubble stocks of A.I. in the NASDAQ and S&P have so far been slow “getting the word. When they do?
Oh, and we should remind that the Dow was pricing around 43,550 early based on futures. Which is down 1,464 points from it’s all-time high December 4th of 45,014.06. More than 3 percent down on the Dow and roughly 7 percent down by the Transports., so let’s see what follows.
We own a nice selection of late March put options so we shall see. (This is not trading advice! Are you a fool? (or Canadian Trudope smoker?))
The Murder Cycle
It’s back…Female suspect, 15, kills student & teacher at Abundant Life Christian School & wounds 6 others before dying by suicide.
As you may know, we have been tracking “soft stats” of a possible Murder Cycle amongst mass shootings. If this falls into the genre, brace for the next one around May 7th next year. But with three dead and six wounded, this incident is unlikely to make the list here.
From the analytics perspective, the tough call is whether to use total number of people killed (as your counting threshold) or whether to use column-inches of news coverage (or prime time minutes on a sample of four networks, say). Under the hard numbers rule, the attempt on Trump, for example, would not count but under the column-inches/minutes of prime, it would be the biggest of 2024 shootings hands down.
Scrolling Stops
The Pacific Plate continues to act up. This time in the South Pacific: 7.3 magnitude earthquake damages US Embassy in Vanuatu.
Don’t be surprised that a democrat stacked court issued a political opinion: New York court refuses to overturn Trump’s hush money conviction due to presidential immunity.
The Damning evidencer of COVID shot damage keeps spooling up: Santa Clara County Saw 50% Increase In mortality In 2021 | Principia Scientific Intl.
And Reverse Discrimination is being called out again: Civil rights complaint filed against NIU for programs that appear open only to black students | The College Fix.
At the Ranch: Honey-Do Day
This is “Honey-Do” day for me. One of my “better time management” ideas. Just like only checking emails every 90 minutes to 2-hours. Reduce the interruptions and get more (what Cal Newport called) Deep Work done.
Deep work isn’t done in 2-hours. We’re talking blocks of time – like 6-10 hours – to where you can really get your nose down into something and hack away at it until actual completion.
What keeps people from getting more Deep Work done is the interruptions.
Like Elaine’s bathroom sink is going down slowly. By itself, this is a 30-40 minute problem. By the time you get the tools out, make sure you have new gaskets, clear all the crap under the sink, get a buck, take out the trap, clean, reinstall, test, dump the bucket, dry and put away tools…blah-blah-blah. We all go there.
Thing is, if that comes along as a task 3-hours into my after-the-column work (the first 3-4 hours of the day) then it doesn’t leave me a Deep Work block. Where I can get into a deep writing trance or super research mode.
Today? A repair to a screen, installing more anti-cat plastic on the porch, tightening of the dryer vent hose (still leaking air) and the slow sink issue. They will all be “put down” right after breakfast. The Deep Work for the week was Monday.
I guess the point of mentioning this is to remember that in order to get more done than most people, it helps to be working more tasks than others. Which you’d think would be obvious, but it isn’t.
I can’t tell you the number of times in my life I’ve heard people bitch and moan about how they will change and how they will “get something done” while in reality spending more time whining than the actual work itself would take. Crazy, ain’t it? And the work never goes away on its own.
Write when you get rich,
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