Wow. That sounds like a lot to cover, but it’s not – really.
Let’s all try to remain rational which – while looking at an irrational world – is admittedly a tough thing to do.
Irrational Markets
We would not be too surprised if the market doesn’t go up for a while today and then begin to drift down, although it might wander skywards through the close tomorrow. The reason is explained in the behavior of our Aggregate Index since the high going into Labor Day. Which was really the second high after the real Aggregate peak back on July 16th.
We assume you know what a Fibonacci Bounce is? Essentially, when a market moves sharply (up or down) it has a tendency (though soft, and this ain’t trading advice) to come back up about 61.8 percent or one of the Fibo numbers. In fact, the Wikipedia entry on this has a simple chart to illustrate the case:
OK, so that’s the general case. Now, let’s whip out the chart of our Aggregate through the close on Wednesday.
From under the white “C” on the right, you can see a big 1 down, a 2 up, and then two bottomed last week and it rallied into the close Wednesday. With me so far?
Well, here’s the real scream for you. From the Aggregate’s (secondary) high on Labor Day, we declined to the middle of last week. And then rallied. To an almost perfect 61.8 percent bounce! Here are the numbers:
Now, a word about this morning because the Futures are up.
Yes, the Dow futures were up 70, the S&P up 8, and the NASDAQ up 21
But watching the market unfold Wednesday was really amazing. We went from down more than 700 (on Kamala and tax hikes and a bad inflation hit) and then rallied for no rational reason except a solid “running of the shorts” which is what this morning’s open promises to see a continuation of.
Could we go up more from here? Maybe, but we’d be less than surprised if the market did some sideways to down between now and next Monday and then to have the Fed cut rates which is NOT what the CME Fed Watch tool says now. It’s saying as of this morning that well over three-quarters of participants (in fact 85% earlier) are expecting rates to be unchanged.
Yes, the upside reversal caught me off guard – and there went a thousand bucks worth out the window. But, like the Professor of Chance schooled: If you want to make Important Money, you have to Place Important Bets.
Whether we will wander off to “find a new table with better action” will depend on the close today.
GDP Numbers – “Yikes! It Spikes!”
It’s possible you got up at 3 AM today in fevered anticipation of the Gross Domestic Product read today. (*Get help) A market that has a swing of 800 Dow points is clearly not interested in the concepts related to “Rational” and as a result, we discount this press release. But the guts of it for the record:
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in July and rose 0.2 percent in June. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand
advanced 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in August.
The August rise in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods was unchanged.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.3 percent in August, the same as in July. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 3.3 percent.”
The next economic fairytale is the import/export prices tomorrow. So, for now, all we can offer is some insight into the week’s unemployment filings. You know, the ones where the “future’s so bright, we gotta wear shades”?
Hey! Side of Unemployment Filings with that?
Drill down:
Political Pathos
AYFKM? Has the whole country gotten out of bed on the Stupid Side?
The Taylor Swift endorsement of Kamala Harris is an abject demonstration that expertise in one field does not conference genius in any other field.
Something which the (likely smartest guy in the room) Elon Musk called out: Elon Musk’s trans daughter mocks ‘incel nonsense’ after Tesla founder offers to give Taylor Swift a baby and get her a cat sitter…
All shows to go you that the temptation to overstep one’s expertise has now seemingly befallen Ms. Swift. Who in our estimate joins the likes of George Looney, Barbara Myland, and Chair. For the weak of brain, think of this as “If you want to build a rocketship out of a country, start with the rocket scientists.”
We have a point of view on this not dissimilar from Woman Who Made Career Singing About Her Bad Choices Endorses Kamala | Babylon Bee.
The Old Editor Rambles In
“Hey cub! What happened to that Greek War News 24/7 website that used to have some non–press release material on it? Seems like it’s been axed…“
“Dunno, Chief. Truth to Power never has been a winner.”
“Remember what I told you: When Power’s toes get stepped on, they’re usually doing bad shit behind the curtain. Look into it…”
“Got it, Chief!” (spoken in my best Jimmy Olsen voice).
Yes, it looks to Jimmy like the Neocons are still whipping up WW III just in case Trump makes a comeback. UK quietly approves Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow missiles in Russia, US may lift similar restrictions. Hmm NATO missiles into Russia…what could go wrong? summed up in WWIII: Biden Says ‘Working Out’ Letting Ukraine Hit Russia With US Long-Range Missiles. Come on Joe, you can’t be serious?
“Hey, Chief! Here are some deflecting press releases to look at!”
Satellite images show Russian ship allegedly delivering Iranian ballistic missiles for Ukraine war.
The U.S. accuses China of providing “very substantial” assistance to Russia in conducting its war – Freedom (uatv.ua)
“Good, cub. Keep on it…”
“Oh, was that a school?” UN slams Israel as strike on school said to kill UN workers; IDF says it hit Hamas center. And here’s an interesting turn of a phrase (useful typo sort): Israel threatens to rage war on Lebanon soon.
Erudite academic headline of the day from the UK Economist: China’s government is surprisingly redistributive. But wait! redistributive to whom? US And Allies Raise Alarm Over China’s Support For Russia’s Military.
And now, for a history lesson. India is doing the policy that could have saved the American steel industry if we had been smarter 25-years ago: India to impose up to 30% tariffs on some steel imports from China, Vietnam. Now, most of our steel doesn’t come from America and that means we have our nuts in a vise. But don’t expect that to be clear to people until, oh, mid-next month, or so. Which gets us to…
Another Colonel Heard From
You may disagree with a swirling consensus around here that Taiwan’s gone before New Years. Yet, after Taiwan just exported more to the US than China in August, we think the PRC’s president Xi’s ego will demand compensation. Nothing demands higher tribute than ownership.
So, it’s with this as footwork we can launch into another take from long-time strategic contributor Warhammer…
“This ‘self-licking ice cream cone’ from Booze-Allen Hamilton (it advocates the need for more FedGov funded studies on China’s cyber capabilities) essentially nails the key points many of my former military colleagues and Ure’s truly embrace wrt the PRC’s real strategic threat and their superior capabilities in non-kinetic warfare.
China’s Strategy To Annex Taiwan Is More About Cyber Power Than Firepower.
China is eroding Western military superiority like ocean water on a sandy beach, with steady and relentless waves of probes, infiltration and compromises to key critical national cyber infrastructure. Communications, power generation and transmission, water filtration and distribution, financial systems, manufacturing and food distribution are but a few of the areas already know to be targeted and potentially already at least partially compromised with embedded ‘zero day’ exploits.
Taiwan is most vulnerable. Any ally of that island republic is also in the PRC’s crosshairs, chief among them the U.S. and our key allies.
A well orchestrated cyber attack by the PRC is more difficult for military and political leaders to get their minds wrapped around, meaning that a viable and effective response to cyber-based attacks is unlikely. Proving that such attacks originated in China is another complicating factor for strategic leaders. And by the time such proof might be detected, the damage will have already been done. The result is the long-anticipated ‘cyber Pearl Harbor’ attack, crippling vital areas for all who support an independent Taiwan.
Time will tell whether nukes or software will dominate the next conflict, a conflict many who are in the know believe has already been started.”
By the way, update your thinking to oust the word “kinetic” which – as another colleague explains – is quickly going obo (obsolete).
“kinetic action” is old school milspeak for shooting with intent to kill or break things. Doesn’t necessarily mean war, per se, but it does imply fire fights of some kind – indirect, direct, exchange of missiles or a combination thereof. The term has officially been expunged from the official vocabulary, but fat lot of good that did. Still widely used, because it’s useful.
Note that Radio Electronic Combat (REC – a Russian term) or Electronic Warfare (US/NATO term) or ???? dianziduikang – “electronic confrontation” (Chinese term) is generally NOT considered kinetic action. So, if you temporarily jam a space communications platform, that’s not kinetic action. But if you hit it with an ASAT weapon, that is kinetic action. Lasers and high-powered microwave beam weapons, I guess you get to decide. Generally, if the impact leaves no marks or permanent damage, that’s not considered kinetic action. Break or destroy something, though, and under Pottery Barn Rules, you just went kinetic.”
There, aren’t you glad we’re clear on terminology?
Newzelslop Budorks
Part news, the odd jewel, but mostly slop issued by dorks.
Come on, how hard was this to figure out? ‘The Craziest Election in History’—RFK Jr. Sounds the Alarm on 2024 Presidential Election.
Better late than never? Electoral College vote count designated as special national security event by DHS.
Middle America reality check, anyone? “Everyone is talking about cats and ducks in this town. I want to talk about a very important person, my mother-in-law … (rumble) (She was killed by a….go listen)
Um, does this mean Musk is having a hard time getting it up? SpaceX faces delay in Starship launch due to federal regulators.
Here’s another story the commies and globalizers in the networks will spike: New ‘Hate Map’ exposes left-wing hostility, antisemitism on college campuses.
Passings: Veteran and popular firearms YouTuber Paul Harrell dies at 58. Cancer. Also gone: Legendary soul singer Frankie Beverly dies at 77.
Yeah, it doesn’t seem right to me, but there we go. Told you back in (April?) I’d bought a small minicomputer for the bedroom TV. (Which we never watch, BTW and there are more fun things to find than a mouse in…um…TMI?).
And then, when not used, it came to the office. Where it replaced a Win10 machine (Big Box which is now in the music studio). Then Sunday, I screwed up. Ran Wise Registry Cleaner and didn’t inspect the files it cautioned not to delete. What could go wrong?
Goodbye registry and no boot and now going through the “net start vss” and trying to get it working again, is what. Apparently, I blew out the registry. Getting “drive too small to recover errors” and lots of other mind-expanding time sinks.
So now, what to do? The POS is not recovering using Win11 tools, and with Asia likely to close in a cloud of war later this year, should I just buy another one for $199 or by Win11 Pro for $149 (or less but then go through the make ISO file and install and….blah blah…)?
And that’s this morning’s problem. Spent another 5-hours (and could be much higher) trying to get it recovered, send it off to a recovery service, or just buy another machine and copy a few directories around because it’s the same box?
Profound, life-shifting decisions like that will occupy my small and feeble as I now bid you adieu for another morning and mount up the 54-inch hotrod and do battle with 2.5 acres of lawn. While I wait to see if the bounce is done, which should become clear between now and Monday.
VOTE while you can. Just leave a comment. Do you prefer the .PNG files for our charts and such or the SVG versions? Online votes by posting a Comment. (Did I block ports to Mexico and points south hackers?) Bullish Bob already voted for PNG. Makes no difference to me, but then again, my idea of a Retina display is looking at my eye in a mirror…
[For Civilian readers, “SVG files are vector-based, meaning they can be scaled up or down without losing quality. PNG files are raster-based, meaning they are pixel-based, and can become grainy or pixelated if scaled too far.” But SVG files can keep page load speeds higher, again in certain conditions…But, Bullish’s Vivaldi browser pukes on SVGs so he appealed to the Supreme George who is now doing a digital J6 (or 2020 rerun) on electing the best graphics format.]Write when you get rich,
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